World Cup Run-Up: Playoff party, Ronaldo in trouble, Italy in hell

Our monthly World Cup lookahead examines the big talking points relating to next summer's tournament. Who's trending up or down; what's the latest on co-hosts Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.; and how is the 48-team event shaping up? At T-minus seven months, the countdown continues.

Playoff predictions 🔮

Only six World Cup places remain up for grabs after a chaotic and thrilling November international window. They'll be decided by intercontinental and European playoffs in March 2026, and the draw for each was made Thursday, outlining the paths to North America for the remaining hopefuls.

Read more: Intercontinental playoffs | European playoffs

In the intercontinental playoffs, it's tough to look past Iraq and DR Congo, the two top-seeded nations that only need to win one game apiece to qualify for the World Cup. Iraq needs to beat either Bolivia or Suriname, while DR Congo, fresh off eliminating Nigeria from African qualifying, needs a victory over New Caledonia or Jamaica. An expected meeting with the Reggae Boyz would be the most intriguing - and difficult - fixture. However, DR Congo's Premier League-heavy squad will, in theory, have Yoane Wissa back from injury come March and has all the tools to take care of business. Jamaica's something of a wild card after manager Steve McClaren stepped down this week. This wouldn't be the first time a new manager reinvigorated a national team at the last minute, but I'll put my faith in the more stable Congo side.

Europe, meanwhile, will garner most of the global attention come March. Italy, the four-time champion, is at risk of missing a third consecutive World Cup, which is end-of-days-type stuff (we said that after the Italians missed out in 2018 and 2022, but a trifecta would be an astonishing new low).

If nothing else, Italy's recurring playoff nightmare won't involve familiar faces; the Azzurri avoided Sweden and North Macedonia in the draw, the teams that knocked them out at this stage in the last two cycles.

Despite fielding a team that is disturbingly bereft of top-tier talent, Gennaro Gattuso's squad should have enough to hold off Northern Ireland and then beat one of Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina. A potential playoff final in Wales would be extremely tricky, though. The Azzurri lack a proven, consistent goalscorer, and if Sandro Tonali isn't available or at his best, the midfield quickly becomes underwhelming. Good luck, Rino.

Sweden, now coached by Graham Potter, had a disastrous qualifying campaign and has to beat Ukraine and then one of Poland or Albania to make the World Cup. Despite all recent evidence to the contrary, I still think Sweden gets it done. A lot can change between now and March. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres could be on a tear for their clubs by the time these playoffs roll around, and Dejan Kulusevski should be back from his injury layoff. All else being relatively equal, I'll side with pure talent.

Turkey's dynamic duo of Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz should lead the team to victory in Path C, despite the unrest in the country's domestic league. Again, talent. Finally, in Path D, I'm so enchanted by Troy Parrott and Ireland - more on that below - that I'm taking the Irish over Denmark. This is obviously some recency bias, and it's silly to suggest momentum from a November win can carry over to March, but the spirit Ireland showed just to get to this point is hard to ignore, especially compared to the way Denmark fell agonizingly into the playoffs.

North American notebook 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽

What's the latest with the three co-hosts?

What a difference a few months can make. Not that long ago, there were questions about Mauricio Pochettino's viability as head coach, and flaming out on home soil next year looked like a real possibility. Now, the USMNT is suddenly flying high going into the World Cup year after closing out 2025 with its best performance yet under the Argentine tactician, a 5-1 dismantling of Uruguay. And there was no asterisk here. Uruguay, one of South America's best teams, rolled out an XI that will likely look very similar to the one that starts the team's opening World Cup match next summer. If anything, it was the U.S. that wasn't at full strength in Florida, with Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, Tyler Adams, and Weston McKennie all absent for various reasons.

The sluggish and disjointed team we saw earlier this year is unrecognizable. The Americans are riding a five-match unbeaten streak, and all of those games (four wins, one draw) were against World Cup-bound opponents. Pochettino, who bristled at the postgame suggestion that he was missing "regular" starters, finally appears to have total buy-in from his players. His best work on the touchline has always come while molding younger players - Tottenham being the most obvious example - and that sets up an interesting dynamic. Those aforementioned "regulars" aren't guaranteed anything going into 2026. If the likes of Sebastian Berhalter, Tanner Tessmann, and Gio Reyna, now firmly back in the fold, prove a better tactical fit, they'll get the nod. That has the potential to create drama, but it's more likely that the internal competition will force everyone to raise their level as they battle for coveted starting spots.

There's no such thing as a wasted international window when preparing for a World Cup; there's always something to take away. But Jesse Marsch and his staff likely didn't learn as much as they would've liked in their November fixtures. Yes, Canada showcased excellent defensive structure and solidity against Ecuador, earning a goalless draw in Toronto despite playing almost the entire match with 10 men after a sixth-minute red card. A 2-0 win over Venezuela, an ill-tempered and weirdly belligerent game that featured red cards for both teams, didn't move the needle much either way. Canada finally ended a 342-minute goal drought, finding the net for the first time since the September window. In defense, Richie Laryea continued to solidify his place in the starting lineup, regardless of when captain Alphonso Davies returns, and center-back Alfie Jones made a solid, if unspectacular, debut.

Concerns remain up front, though. Jonathan David, for some time the most consistent and reliable member of Marsch's side, is in a funk. He has two goals in his last 16 matches for club and country; for the first time, his slow start and limited minutes at Juventus translated to the national team. Even if he isn't scoring, David's one-touch link-up play and connection with onrushing wingers and midfielders make him an indispensable part of the XI. But even that was lacking against Venezuela. He isn't in any real danger of losing his starting spot, but on a team that already struggles to generate goals, having your best forward in a rut is a big concern. Canada is very tough to break down, having now kept five clean sheets in its last six outings, but the biggest question mark is still at the other end.

Mexico is trending in exactly the opposite direction of bitter rival the United States. El Tri endured another winless international window, drawing 0-0 with Uruguay - a result that looks much worse after seeing the Americans steamroll Marcelo Bielsa's team days later - before falling at home to Paraguay and being showered with jeers from frustrated fans. Javier Aguirre, likely in a desperate attempt to stoke something within his squad, openly called out his players' desire and ability after the Paraguay defeat, which extended Mexico's winless run to six matches.

Outside of teen phenom Gilberto Mora and ever-present striker Raul Jimenez, Mexico doesn't offer much to be excited about. Those two can't carry the entire team. A slew of lineup changes from one game to the next did nothing to improve the performance, leaving more questions than answers going into 2026. Aguirre was brought back to provide some stability for a program that was chewing up and spitting out coaches too quickly in recent years, but he hasn't been able to find the right formula over the last few months. The USMNT demonstrates it's possible for that switch to be flipped pretty quickly, but Aguirre's running out of time.

On the rise 📈

We typically highlight risers and fallers here, but in the interest of keeping up the good vibes after a thrilling international window, we'll focus on the teams and players that are trending up.

📈 Hampden heroes: Scotland is heading to the World Cup for the first time since 1998 after one of the most rousing results in all of the qualifying cycle. The Scots' electric 4-2 win over Denmark had Hampden Park shaking. Scott McTominay, transformed from Manchester United misfit to cult hero at Napoli, scored a towering bicycle kick. Kieran Tierney's exquisite curler in the 93rd minute stood up as the goal that clinched a long-awaited tournament berth, and Kenny McLean put an exclamation point on it all by scoring from the freaking halfway line in the final seconds. Scottish fans, long resigned to simply cheering for whoever was playing against England, will finally get to root for their team on the grandest stage once more. The tournament will be better off with the boisterous Tartan Army in North America.

📈 Troy Parrott: Two weeks ago, Parrott was a promising young striker trying to establish himself as a consistent scoring threat for his country. Now he's an Irish hero. Parrott, shipped off to Dutch club AZ Alkmaar after coming through the Tottenham academy, made his Ireland debut in 2019. He had just five goals for his national team prior to the November international window. He matched that total in two games. He scored twice in a win over Portugal, outshining Cristiano Ronaldo, to keep Ireland's World Cup hopes alive, and then outdid himself with a hat-trick, including a 96th-minute winner, in a sensational comeback win over Hungary that sent Ireland to the European playoffs at the Hungarians' expense. In the blink of an eye, he's risen from bit-part player to national icon. His childhood neighbors are being interviewed on TV, and the Dublin Airport renamed itself after him on social media. The beautiful game in all its glory. Just imagine what'll happen if Ireland actually qualifies for the tournament.

📈 Blue Wave: No, not that one. We're talking, of course, about Curacao, the tiny island nation that became the smallest by population (just over 156,000) to ever qualify for the World Cup. Eat your heart out, Iceland. As a U.S. comparable, that's roughly the population of Kansas City (the one in Kansas, not the one in Missouri). In Canada, that's akin to Barrie, Ontario. You get the idea. Veteran Dutch manager Dick Advocaat, who couldn't attend the clinching 0-0 draw in Jamaica due to a family matter, has masterminded a miracle. This kind of story - along with Cape Verde, Uzbekistan, and other unlikely debutants - was always the biggest selling feature of an expanded World Cup. Will the overall quality of the tournament be diluted compared to previous editions? Certainly. But maybe that's not the worst price to pay for once again seeing history made and dreams fulfilled for teams like Curacao.

Quick free-kicks 💥

What else is catching the eye?

Test of conviction: Petulance has always been part of Cristiano Ronaldo's game. He's the greatest goalscorer in the history of men's international soccer, but when things don't go his way, he's prone to bouts of frustration on the pitch. It finally came back to bite him for Portugal. Ronaldo's first red card for his country, in his 226th senior appearance, has the potential to rule him out of at least one World Cup game, depending on how severe FIFA wants the punishment to be for his impetuous elbow against Ireland. Because his sending-off happened in a qualifier, any subsequent ban can't be applied to friendly matches. He missed Portugal's final qualifier, a 9-1 win over Armenia - more evidence that the squad functions best without him? - which means the team's next competitive fixture is at the World Cup. What are the chances Gianni Infantino, who just dined with Ronaldo at the White House, will allow one of the most marketable players ever, at his final World Cup, to be absent for his country's opener? You can do the math.

All for one, one for all: England just became only the second European team to ever complete a World Cup qualifying campaign with a perfect record and no goals conceded. The Three Lions are a very legitimate threat to win the damn thing. And yet, the bubbling discord between no-nonsense bench boss Thomas Tuchel and superstar midfielder Jude Bellingham continues to hang over the squad and eat up real estate in the British media. Despite all the noise, I still think the Real Madrid man should start next summer. It'd be one thing if Tuchel had to shoehorn him into the XI at the expense of his entire tactical plan, but that's not really the case. Bellingham's a better player than Morgan Rogers, who appears to be his competition right now. Assuming Bellingham doesn't do anything to upset his manager - not a guarantee based on his latest reaction to being substituted! - you'd think he'll get the nod. It's far from a sure thing, though. Based on Tuchel's usage thus far, Harry Kane is the only undroppable player in England's XI.

Group of Death: We still don't know all the teams that'll be involved in the World Cup draw, but the latest edition of the FIFA rankings helped clarify some of the pots that we'll see Dec. 5 and some of the potential groups that could be compiled. The biggest standout, aside from Germany narrowly beating out Croatia for a coveted place in Pot 1, is Norway. Expected to slot into Pot 3, Erling Haaland and the Norwegians are the obvious outliers that every perennial power will be desperate to avoid. We examined in October how a dominant No. 9 can single-handedly carry a team at the World Cup, and there's none better right now than Haaland. The Manchester City hitman, who scored at least once in every Group I match, finished the qualifying campaign with 16 goals. Nobody else in Europe registered more than eight.

Who's in, who's out? 🎟️

Forty-two of a possible 48 nations have booked their tickets. For a detailed breakdown of how each team has qualified so far, tap here.

Betting odds 🤑

Which teams are favored to win the tournament?

⚽️ Check out the full World Cup odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Key dates ahead 🗓️

Dec. 5, 2025: World Cup draw
March 23-31, 2026: Final World Cup qualifying matches
June 1-9, 2026: Pre-tournament friendly matches
June 11, 2026: World Cup opening match