Predicting Canada's World Cup squad: Larin's spot in jeopardy?

Canada is off the clock for 2025. With the men's team completing its final two games of the year in November - a draw with Ecuador followed by a win over Venezuela - this is the perfect time to take stock of the squad and project who will make Jesse Marsch's 26-man roster for the 2026 World Cup.

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Goalkeepers | Defenders | Midfielders | Forwards | Projected XI

Goalkeepers

This is a straight fight between St. Clair and Crepeau for the starting job. Multiple things would have to go extremely awry for the third goalkeeper to see the pitch next summer, so Marsch's primary concern in that space should be picking someone he views as a great locker room presence. That could be any of the netminders on the bubble, really, but Goodman, the 21-year-old English-born 'keeper who was granted Canadian citizenship in October, appears to have a leg up after being part of the November squad.

The battle between St. Clair and Crepeau is one of contrasting styles. The former, recently named 2025 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year, is excellent at the most essential part of the job: making saves. Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) measures how likely a goalkeeper is to stop a given shot. Taking that figure and subtracting actual goals allowed provides a good indication of a netminder's true shot-stopping ability. By that metric, St. Clair's mark of plus-9.7 was the second best in MLS this season.

Crepeau is arguably better at every other task though. He's more assertive off his line, more assured collecting crosses, and distributes the ball better from the back. For a team that wants to play an aggressive style, pressing hard and squeezing high up the field, having a decisive goalkeeper capable of acting as a sweeper is critical. Crepeau seems like a better fit stylistically, but his club status could be a key factor. The Portland Timbers declined his 2026 contract option, making the Canadian a free agent. It's imperative that his next move involves assurances about playing time heading into the World Cup year.

Defenders

*Player currently injured

No player boosted his stock quite like Laryea over the last couple months. The versatile Toronto FC man has been given an extended run at left-back with team captain Davies recovering from an ACL tear, and he's made the position his own. So much so, in fact, that it now seems preferable to push Davies into a more advanced wide midfield position when he does eventually return, leaving Laryea to patrol the left flank. Laryea's bounced around at club level, but he dials up his game several notches and sets the tone for the national team with his strong one-on-one defending and willingness to ruffle opponents' feathers.

Sigur, who can slot in comfortably at right-back or central midfield, is the kind of versatile player that every coach adores. If Johnston's recent hamstring issues persist, the 22-year-old Hajduk Split product is more than capable of continuing in the defensive role.

If Cornelius and Bombito are fit, they're starting Canada's opening World Cup match in the heart of defense. End of. Bombito, who's quickly ascended to become the nation's top center-back, is recovering from a broken tibia sustained in October. Tajon Buchanan, who suffered the same injury in 2024 during a Copa America training session, missed five months. That timeline means Bombito should be back in plenty of time for the World Cup, but there are no guarantees.

That's why the recent recruitment of Middlesbrough's Alfie Jones is so big. The English-born defender, eligible to play for Canada via his late maternal grandmother, looked solid enough in his debut against Venezuela on Tuesday. He immediately jumps the queue as the next right-sided center-back in line for a starting spot if Bombito isn't 100% come June. Waterman is pretty close to being a lock, too, while it seems likely either Miller or De Fougerolles will miss out in favor of Jones.

Midfielders

Kone was sent off after scoring in Canada's win over Venezuela, but that was, quite frankly, a horrific refereeing decision, and it shouldn't take away from what was another positive step forward for the supremely talented 23-year-old. No other midfielder in the squad raises the ceiling of the team like Kone, who has all the tools to be a dominant box-to-box star and has once again started showcasing that total skill set after a dip in form. Choiniere, Osorio, and Saliba could all arguably offer a steadier presence beside Eustaquio, but Kone is undeniably the most explosive and dynamic option when at his best. He should start at the World Cup.

Ahmed, whose red card in the goalless draw with Ecuador was a more defensible call by the match official, will likely be the odd man out in the starting lineup when Davies returns. That's no fault of his own. The Vancouver Whitecaps player is on the rise, but someone has to make way when the electrifying Bayern Munich star is ready to come back.

Flores, meanwhile, is a total wild card. The 22-year-old dual national, who can operate in multiple attacking midfield roles, has been at the center of a tug-of-war between Mexico and Canada. But the Arsenal academy product took the first step toward potentially making a one-time switch from El Tri to his birth nation when he joined Canada's November camp as an unofficial "training player." Considering the squad is seeking more creativity and unpredictability in attack, Flores could be fast-tracked into the mix in 2026 if he does indeed decide to play for Marsch's team.

Forwards

All current indications suggest that Oluwaseyi is Marsch's preferred partner for Jonathan David, who remains an unequivocal starter despite his early-season struggles at club level with Juventus. But the position as his sidekick up front is very much up for grabs. Imposing striker and namesake Promise David continues to make a strong case for a starting position. His goal against Venezuela was his third in just eight caps, giving him as many tallies as Oluwaseyi and Larin combined in the Marsch era. If nothing else, the David-David duo should get extended minutes during the March window to learn if that can be a prolific partnership.

Where does that leave Larin? It's probably the most glaring question facing the squad at the moment.

The veteran forward, who's second all time in scoring for the national team with 30 goals in 87 appearances, is struggling. He hasn't found the net for Canada since October 2024, and he's not getting consistent minutes at club level after joining Feyenoord on loan from Mallorca; Larin's yet to record a league goal for the Dutch outfit, playing only 113 minutes in the Eredivisie.

He's not the most natural fit for Marsch's up-tempo style, but he's a key veteran leader who's been critical to helping Canada out of the doldrums and into the exciting era it finds itself now. Those intangibles matter. If Bair, Jebbison, or another forward suddenly catches fire in 2026 - which seems unlikely - and Larin continues to find himself stuck on the bench at Feyenoord, then this becomes more of a conversation. The most probable outcome remains Larin being on the World Cup squad, but for the reasons outlined, that can't be considered a complete lock.

Projected starting XI 🔮

Assuming everyone is fit and available, here's what we think Canada's XI will look like for its World Cup opener.

(Courtesy: FotMob)