World Cup Run-Up: Messi's future, Pochettino's problems, and more

Welcome back to our monthly World Cup lookahead, where we examine the biggest talking points relating to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Which teams and players are trending up or down, what's new with the co-hosts, and how is the expanded 48-team tournament shaping up? T-minus nine months, the countdown continues.

Opening whistle: Will he or won't he? 🤔

Call it naivety, but I've always just assumed that Lionel Messi would participate in the 2026 World Cup. Why wouldn't he run it back one more time with the reigning champion?

Messi played his final World Cup qualifier - and his last competitive home game for Argentina - in an emotional Sept. 4 win over Venezuela. He scored twice, because of course he did. Business as usual, right? Maybe not. After the game, Messi cast doubt on his international future, saying it was "logical" that he wouldn't participate in next summer's tournament due to his age.

"But here I am - excited, wanting to play, but like I've always said, I go day by day, game by game," the Argentine hero told reporters, according to Felipe Cardenas of The Athletic. "This year we had so many matches, one after another. I just came off a break for a few days, then had another setback."

Messi added: "Now it's about taking it one day at a time, trying to feel good, and above all being honest with myself. When I feel good, I enjoy it. When I don't, honestly, I suffer, and I'd rather not be there. So we'll see."

He can still conjure magical moments out of thin air, but, at 38, the seams are coming into focus. Messi's body is showing signs of the wear and tear that comes with getting incessantly kicked by defenders for roughly two decades. He's missing more games than ever with various muscle ailments and is more stationary off the ball than at any point in his career.

The end of that iconic career isn't far away. Actually reckoning with and accepting that is a whole other matter. Based on his pragmatic comments, it'll be harder for us to process Messi's eventual retirement than it will be for him.

North American notebook 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽

What's the latest with the three co-hosts?

Christian Pulisic had to come out and dispel reports of a fractured relationship with head coach Mauricio Pochettino. Meanwhile, former USMNT players are publicly questioning the commitment of current stars, prompting one of them, Tim Weah, to respond by saying the ex-players are "evil." All very normal stuff. On the field, the Americans finally snapped a seven-game winless skid against teams ranked in FIFA's top 25.

But even that was tempered by the fact that their 2-0 victory earlier this week came against a second-string Japan lineup. Pochettino can at least take some much-needed positives from the win, particularly with how comfortable his side looked using a 3-4-2-1 formation. But the vibes around this team still aren't great, and time is running out for Pochettino to iron out the kinks ahead of next summer's big show. What's his best XI? Who should be the starting No. 9? Answers to these fundamental questions are lacking.

This could all change quickly, but the feeling within the Canadian camp right now is exactly the opposite of the USMNT. Jesse Marsch's team went to Europe and beat Romania and Wales in quick succession, coming away with a pair of clean sheets in the process.

Jonathan David, off to a solid start at club level with Juventus, continues to improve every time he steps on the pitch. Tajon Buchanan appears to have put his serious leg injury behind him. Ali Ahmed is making a big push for a starting spot. Niko Sigur looks comfortable everywhere on the field. Derek Cornelius is scoring Messi-esque free-kicks. Best of all, captain Alphonso Davies is back in training with Bayern Munich and should return from his ACL tear in October. There's a real reason for optimism for Canadian fans.

We touched on this in August, but the transfer window can have a huge impact on any national team's World Cup outlook. We typically think of that in terms of the players who make moves to new clubs, but what about the ones who don't?

Christopher Nkunku's arrival at AC Milan threatened to reduce Santiago Gimenez's playing time, fueling speculation that the Mexican striker would seek a move to a more favorable situation elsewhere. However, a potential switch to Roma fell through, sparking outrage from Gimenez's father and leaving many questions about his usage this season under Massimiliano Allegri. If Gimenez spends most of his time on the bench, it'll be to the detriment of Mexico, which can't afford to have its second-best goalscorer trying to shake off rust at next summer's tournament.

Rising and falling 📈📉

Which teams, players, and coaches have been trending up or down?

Mbappe's revenge tour 📈

Despite scoring plenty of goals, Kylian Mbappe didn't enjoy the smoothest transition in his first season at Real Madrid. Just three matches into his second campaign, and he already looks more comfortable. The 26-year-old has scored three goals in as many La Liga games to start the season, and that strong form has carried over to the national team. Mbappe led France to a pair of victories during the recent international window, highlighted by a sumptuous goal against Ukraine in which he turned €66-million PSG defender Illia Zabarnyi inside out.

He followed that up with a penalty against Iceland, which pushed Mbappe past icon Thierry Henry for second on the French men's team's all-time scoring list. He's only five tallies behind leader Olivier Giroud. At this point, it's a matter of when. There's a real possibility that Mbappe could set that national scoring record at next summer's World Cup. For all his accolades - which include a World Cup title and a hat-trick in the World Cup final - Mbappe has, at times, been overshadowed over the last year by the likes of Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and compatriot Ousmane Dembele. But when he's at his best, I still think he's the single most dominant player in the sport. Next summer's tournament is the perfect place to make history and remind those who've maybe forgotten how singularly great he can be.

African heavyweights 📉

Nigeria and Cameroon, two of the most storied and successful nations in African soccer history, are in serious trouble as CAF qualifying nears its conclusion. Only the nine group winners from the current round of African qualifying are guaranteed a World Cup spot, with the four best second-place finishers entering a mini-tournament to decide who will represent the continent in the inter-confederation playoffs. If qualifying ended today, Nigeria wouldn't meet either criterion, despite fielding one of the most talented teams in Africa. With two matches left, the Super Eagles sit in a dispiriting third place in their group behind South Africa and Benin. It's looking grim.

Meanwhile, the Indomitable Lions of Cameroon could be on the wrong end of one of the great Cinderella stories of this qualifying cycle. A 1-0 loss to group leader Cape Verde pushed the team further behind the tiny island nation. Goalkeeper Andre Onana, heading to Trabzonspor after a disastrous Manchester United spell that's altered the trajectory of his career, came under fire again, this time for staying rooted to his line on Cape Verde's winning goal. The Blue Sharks, one win away from a historic qualification, are no longer a total unknown after reaching the AFCON quarterfinals two years ago, but this would be their greatest footballing accomplishment. The fans know it, too. Just listen to this roar:

Gattuso's imprint 📈

Italian football has long been characterized as slow, stale, and boring. Serie A and the Azzurri still wrestle with those Catenaccio-inspired stereotypes, but Gennaro Gattuso is doing his damndest to shed them all in one shot. Italy, looking to avoid a cataclysmic event of missing a third successive World Cup, earned a chaotic 5-4 victory in a must-win match against Israel. After two own goals, a late blown lead, and a stoppage-time winner, the last scene of the contest was Gattuso getting into a heated argument with an Israeli player following the final whistle. It was all extremely on brand for the explosive ex-midfielder.

That recipe obviously isn't sustainable for long-term success. Italy's best teams have always been defensively stout. Just look at the 2006 World Cup champions, who conceded only twice - an own goal and a penalty. This current squad also doesn't have the firepower up front to consistently outscore defensive issues. But at this point, none of that matters. The bar is so low that simply qualifying, by any means necessary, will be a success for Gattuso. That likely means going through another dramatic set of playoff matches. At the very least, it won't be boring.

Nagelsmann's reputation 📉

Germany's participation in the World Cup has always been a formality. The team, quite literally, never fails to qualify for the event, missing only two editions (Germany didn't enter the inaugural competition in 1930 and was barred from entering in 1950). But Julian Nagelsmann has work to do to avoid catastrophe. Germany lost a World Cup qualifier away from home for the first time in history last week, falling to Slovakia. It followed that up with a sluggish and unconvincing home win over Northern Ireland, leaving the team third in its qualifying group after two games.

Germany should be fine. A pair of remaining matches against minnows Luxembourg will almost certainly yield six points and a healthy boost to the goal difference, which serves as the first tiebreaker. However, Nagelsmann, a new-age coach whose once-burgeoning reputation suffered a setback at Bayern Munich before he transitioned into international management, is under intense pressure as he attempts to integrate the nation's emerging stars with its established talents.

Quick free-kicks 💥

What else is catching the eye?

The CR7 dilemma: At this stage in his vaunted career, Cristiano Ronaldo's suitability as the primary center-forward for a nation with genuine hopes of winning the World Cup is an open question. Now 40, Ronaldo is obviously past his prime, but he's going to be Portugal's No. 9 almost by default. Roberto Martinez clearly still relies on him, and, for all their incredible attacking talent in wide areas, Portugal lacks another striker who can thrive through the middle. Although Goncalo Ramos could've been that guy, his move to PSG has stagnated his growth. Ronaldo is showing in qualifying that he can still find the net, but overreliance on the icon next summer could sink Portugal if he struggles the same way he did at Euro 2024.

It's coming home: Thomas Tuchel picked up the most convincing result of his tenure as England manager during the recent international window, as the Three Lions strolled into Belgrade, a notoriously difficult place to play, and routed Serbia 5-0. Elliot Anderson and Noni Madueke took full advantage of injury-induced absences, making strong cases for more prominent roles. Tuchel, under increasing pressure following the team's turgid performances in his first five matches, also silenced some critics - for now. Whether the German manager can actually get England over the top at a major tournament after his predecessor, Gareth Southgate, came agonizingly close remains to be seen. Still, at least now there's reason for belief.

Inadvertent disruption: Alexander Isak's prolonged summer transfer saga had an unintended consequence. Although the striker eventually - mercifully - got his move to Liverpool, his refusal to play for Newcastle meant he had zero minutes under his belt this season and thus wasn't fully fit for Sweden's recent World Cup qualifiers. The Swedes promptly tied Slovenia and lost to Kosovo, with Isak only coming off the bench for less than 20 minutes in the latter contest. Sweden now finds itself in a precarious position in Group B of UEFA qualifying, with two games against unbeaten Switzerland still to come. Isak needs to find his feet quickly at Liverpool before the next international break in October.

No striker, no problem: Spain lacks a superstar striker, but it still looks like the best team in the world. Mikel Oyarzabal isn't a prototypical No. 9 despite starting La Roja's last five matches, and captain Alvaro Morata might find opportunities limited after his transfer to Como. And it may not matter at all. Spain won its last two matches, combining for a 9-0 scoreline over Bulgaria and Turkey. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are wizards on the wings, Pedri is a Rolls-Royce in midfield, and Mikel Merino, who scored a hat-trick against Turkey, somehow continues to be the best auxiliary striker around.

Who's in, who's out? 🎟️

Eighteen of the 48 possible nations have booked their tickets to the 2026 World Cup, with Canada, Mexico, and the United States automatically included as co-hosts. For a detailed breakdown of how each team has qualified so far, tap here.

For current World Cup qualifying standings, tap here.

Betting odds 🤑

Which teams are favored to win the tournament?

⚽️ Check out the full World Cup odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Key dates ahead 🗓️

Oct. 6-14: World Cup qualifying
Nov. 10-18: World Cup qualifying
Dec. 5, 2025: World Cup draw
March 23-31, 2026: Final World Cup qualifying matches
June 1-9, 2026: Pre-tournament friendly matches
June 11, 2026: World Cup opening match