We had another good night with our best bets Thursday, though Bryce Harper fell one base short of giving us a sweep.

We'll take another profitable 2-1 night and look to finish the week on a high with three more plays.

Rays (-140) @ Mariners (+120)

Jumping on an over when Shane McClanahan is on the mound is never fun, but I see value in doing so in this game.

For one, McClanahan hasn't been quite as sharp of late. He's allowed a .342 xwOBA and 12.3% barrel rate over the last month. Those numbers are a lot worse than what we've seen on the year - an xwOBA of just .300 and a barrel rate below 10%.

I'm not saying he's on the verge of a huge blowup, but I could see the Mariners - a top-15 offense in runs scored - plating two or three before McClanahan turns the game over to the bullpen. If that happens, we should be well on our way to an over.

The Rays have scored 5.5 runs per game this year and blasted right-handed pitching all season long. Bryce Miller is a quality young arm but has looked exploitable of late.

Miller failed to pitch five innings in three of his past five games, with starts against the Marlins (21st in runs per game) and White Sox (24th) the exceptions. He's really struggled against good offenses. The Rays classify as such.

Miller also has a very difficult time against left-handed hitters, of which the Rays have a few good ones. Josh Lowe and Luke Raley provide a ton of power from the left side, while Tampa Bay can use switch-hitter Wander Franco - one of the best hitters in the sport - there if needed.

I think Miller, who owns a .377 xwOBA over the last 30 days, will allow some real damage in this game. If and when he's chased, he has to turn it over to a bullpen with one of the worst FIPs in the league over the past month.

I see this being a 6-3 type of game. Despite the juicy pitching matchup on paper, I like the over.

Bet: Over 7.5 runs (-105, playable to -115)

Osvaldo Bido over 4.5 strikeouts

Bido was a big strikeout arm in the minor leagues, averaging more than a strikeout per inning pitched. That's translated to MLB through his first few starts with the Pirates.

Bido has struck out 18 batters through three games. He's gone over the number each time out, including against a strong Marlins team (48-34) that doesn't strike out very often. Impressive stuff.

His underlying profile looks strong, too. He's throwing balls only 35% of the time, his swinging strike rate is just about 10%, and he's not letting opposing hitters square up and make good contact - his barrel rate allowed sits at just 2.1%.

Bido will have the luxury of taking on the Brewers on Friday night. They own a .209 batting average versus righties this month and struck out 28% of the time, more than any team but the Rockies.

It's a mouthwatering matchup for a pitcher who's throwing the ball very well right now. Even if he's set to regress a little bit, this is one of the best opponents Bido could draw up. Look for him to get the job done once again.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Luis Severino under 17.5 outs

Severino completed six innings last time out against the Rangers. That doesn't change much for me - I'm still not buying Severino stock.

There are still plenty of red flags in his profile. Over the past month (five starts), Severino posted a 46% strike rate, a 13.7% barrel rate, and an xwOBA of .400. All of those numbers are very concerning.

As we've zeroed in on over the past couple of days - while successfully backing Cardinals overs - St. Louis can really hit for power. You don't want to face it when struggling to throw strikes and giving up powerful contact, which is the case with Severino.

Even if he pitches relatively well, we're still talking about a guy who's recorded more than 15 outs only twice this season. He doesn't tend to work very deep in games.

Odds: -130 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.