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March Madness Sunday best bets: Duke to handle Michigan State

Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Unlike Thursday's crazy number of upsets, Friday saw mostly favorites taking home tight victories.

As a result, most matchups set for Sunday involve some of the best teams in the country, meaning tight spreads set across the board. For our Sunday best bets, we take a look at two strong total plays and a favorite looking to pull away.

No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 5 Houston (-4.5, 133.5)
12:10 p.m. ET

Houston just came off allowing UAB's diminutive but talented guards to shoot only 5-of-19 from beyond the arc thanks to a tight aggressive defense. Illinois trots out a similar small backcourt, which has combined for 498 3-pointers this season compared to 292 shots from 2-point range.

The Fighting Illini will also struggle to play through Kofi Cockburn in the post, as the Cougars allow the second-fewest number of post-up plays of any team in the country.

Houston should have trouble scoring, too. While the squad went off for 10 3-pointers in the UAB win, Illinois allows the fifth-fewest long balls per field-goal attempt in the country. Plus, Cockburn and Coleman Hawkins are one of the nation's best interior defending tandems.

Lastly, both programs rank near the bottom nationally in pace, as each team racked up just 65 possessions in their Round of 64 contests. All signs point to another slow, low-scoring game here.

Pick: Under 133 or better

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Duke (-6.5, 144.5)
5:15 p.m. ET

Michigan State needed one of its best interior scoring games of the season and a career-high-tying 27 points from Joey Hauser just to escape Davidson on Friday, but the challenge will be much tougher against No. 2 Duke.

The Blue Devils will continue to force the Spartans into difficult 2-point attempts, virtually shutting off both the 3-point and free-throw lines. Michigan State is 0-5 with an average margin of defeat of 12 points in games where the team fails to put up a 20% free-throw rate or a 35% 3-point rate - both marks that Duke's defense hits.

Duke has advantages in nearly all facets of the game against a Spartans side that has gone just 6-8 in its last 14 contests. Sometimes, picking a talented team with a matchup advantage in a big spot is the right choice, even if the spread pushes into a multi-possession number.

Pick: Duke -7.5 or better

No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Purdue (-3.5, 134)
8:40 p.m. ET

Out of the 32 teams remaining in the field, Purdue ranks as the third-worst defense, per KenPom, while sporting the second-best offense in the country. The Boilermakers have developed this way thanks to their immense size and shooting, ranking in the top four percent nationally in jump shooting, inside scoring, and post-ups on a per-possession basis.

While Texas is a strong defensive squad, the undersized Longhorns struggle to defend post-ups and tend to put opponents on the free-throw line, where Purdue often ends up.

Between Andrew Jones and Marcus Carr, Texas has lots of shot creation at the guard spots - a key to beating Purdue's bulky big men in pick-and-roll scenarios. The pace may not be super quick, but both teams should put forth an efficient offensive performance and see this number shoot over its low total.

Pick: Over 135 or better

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