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Euro 2020 odds: Nations to avoid

PAUL ELLIS / AFP / Getty

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The Euro 2020 draw is complete. Yesterday, we identified the best value bets for which team will claim silverware at this summer's showpiece.

Today, we'll shift gears and identify the nations that offer no value. The teams to avoid in the futures market are rather obvious.

NATION ODDS
France 4-1
England 5-1
Belgium 7-1
Germany 8-1
Netherlands 8-1
Spain 8-1
Portugal 10-1
Italy 14-1
Croatia 25-1
Poland 80-1
Russia 80-1
Switzerland 80-1
Ukraine 80-1
Denmark 100-1
Serbia 100-1
Turkey 100-1

Only nations with odds 100-1 or shorter were included

France (4-1)

Not even a draw into the Group of Death has scared oddsmakers off of France. That's high praise for the defending world champions.

Les Bleus boast the deepest and most complete squad in UEFA, but their dominance has wavered since the World Cup. After beating Croatia in the final, they've shown signs of vulnerability. Their only signature wins have come by virtue of late goals at home to Germany and Netherlands, but they also lost 2-0 in Amsterdam and drew 0-0 in Munich. Draws against Iceland and Turkey - a nation to which England also dropped a match - weren't flattering either.

France unquestionably possesses a squad capable of winning the Euro, but the gulf between it and the nations below isn't as big as the odds suggest.

Didier Deschamps' side faces arguably the toughest path of any to the final. It plays Germany in Munich to open the group stage before taking on defending European champion Portugal, and likely Iceland too, assuming it wins playoff Path A.

With Germany playing all three of its group matches at home, France will likely need to settle for second in its group. That would set up a likely last-16 clash with England, then a probable quarterfinal meeting with Spain. The Netherlands would likely be next should France reach the semifinal, and one of Germany or Belgium would probably be waiting in the final.

Les Bleus don't have a single easy game. You'll probably get France at plus-money in every match, so if it's your pick to win the tournament, play it game by game instead of at a meager 4-1 to get past Germany, Portugal, Iceland, England, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium.

England (5-1)

England is in the same boat as France, only with a less talented squad. The Three Lions always tend to be overrated in the futures market as a public side, which can likely be attributed to the Premier League's reach, pedigree, and popularity. England is the Dallas Cowboys of world soccer.

The group stage should be manageable for the Three Lions as they host matches against Croatia, the Czech Republic, and the playoff Path C winner (Scotland, Israel, Norway, or Serbia). But Gareth Southgate's work is cut out for him if he's to lead England to its first European championship.

The Three Lions should finish atop Group D, setting up a last-16 date with the Group F runner-up - likely Germany, France, or Portugal. That won't be in London. And if England moves on, it will likely face Spain in the quarterfinals, the Netherlands in the semis, and so on. You get the point.

Nothing about England's body of work at major tournaments suggests it can navigate such a daunting draw. At World Cup 2018, the Three Lions beat Tunisia, Panama, Sweden, and Colombia (in penalties) while losing to Croatia and twice to Belgium. At Euro 2016, they beat Wales in the final minute, drew Russia and Slovakia, and lost to Iceland. They failed every major test they faced. Why should 2020 be any different?

Southgate has an embarrassment of riches to choose from up top, but a number of nations' managers can make that same claim. He has pieces to work with in defense, and though many go-to options have been struggling for form, it could be a very different story seven months from now. Regardless, England's true issue resides in midfield, where its exciting options lack international experience and big-game pedigree and its experienced options are rather underwhelming. England don't have an N'Golo Kante, a Toni Kroos, a Frenkie de Jong, a Luka Modric, or a Sergio Busquets. It will lose the midfield battle against every big team. That's reason enough not to back the Three Lions at such an absurdly short price, especially when you can get the likes of Germany and Netherlands at 8-1.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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