TOUR Championship betting preview: Scheffler heavily favored to hoist FedEx Cup
The final leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs takes place this week at Atlanta's East Lake Golf Club. The PGA TOUR got rid of the staggered start format for the TOUR Championship, giving everyone an equal chance at winning the FedEx Cup.
That said, it may not be entirely equal for everyone - Scottie Scheffler is the +170 favorite on ESPN BET and theScore Bet to win back-to-back FedEx Cups. Scheffler's play is out of this world right now, so the rest of the 30-man field will have their work cut out for them while attempting to claim the $10 million first-place prize.
The course
- East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta
- Donald Ross design
- 7,440 yards, par 70
- Bermuda-grass greens
- All four par 3s over 195 yards
- Tree-lined, parkland course with emphasis on approach play
Past FedEx Cup champions
2024: Scottie Scheffler
2023: Viktor Hovland
2022: Rory McIlroy
2021: Patrick Cantlay
2020: Dustin Johnson
2019: Rory McIlroy
2018: Justin Rose
2017: Justin Thomas
The favorite
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +170 |
⛳️ Check out all the TOUR Championship odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Scottie Scheffler absolutely deserves to be in a tier of his own.
Little can be said about the quality of Scheffler's golf that hasn't already been discussed. He's the best player in the world right now by a wide margin and is reasonably priced at +170. Those odds equate to a 37% implied probability, which you could argue should be closer to a coin flip.
He'll undoubtedly be in contention on Sunday, and he's almost expected to win the FedEx Cup for a second consecutive year. But there's simply not enough juice in betting a golfer at +170, even though it's a fine bet to make if you're looking for a Sunday sweat.
The next tier
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +850 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1200 |
| Russell Henley | +1600 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
| Sam Burns | +2500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2500 |
| Cameron Young | +3000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +3000 |
| Sepp Straka | +3000 |
| Ben Griffin | +3500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +3500 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +3500 |
| Harris English | +4000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +4000 |
⛳️ Check out all the TOUR Championship odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Rory McIlroy tops Scheffler's challengers at +850. He placed T12 at the BMW Championship in his first start since the Open Championship. Even though he hit the ball fine enough last week, it's hard to justify his current odds when you can get players in much better form at well over double the price.
Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley are both great course fits at East Lake and are performing well during the playoffs. But neither jumps off the page as a value bet at +1200 and +1600, respectively.
This tier starts to get interesting at +3000. Cameron Young, J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin, and Hideki Matsuyama are all worth considering when you evaluate form and course fit. However, there's a better way to approach this week, which we'll get to with our picks.
Picks
Bet: Cameron Young (+2000) without Scottie Scheffler
Are we afraid of Scheffler? Absolutely. To combat that, target the market without Scheffler to remove him from consideration. That way, your bet still has a chance if he's up by five after Round 1.
To do this, we're going back to the well with a playoff favorite. We've backed Young in each of the two playoff events, and he's returned results of fifth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and a T11 last week at the BMW Championship. Despite only being behind Scheffler in total strokes gained over the past 12 rounds, Young's price isn't being adjusted.
Young hasn't played East Lake since 2022, but he's a great fit at a course that demands premier ball-striking. He won the Wyndham Championship two starts ago on a Donald Ross design in North Carolina, a similar geographic location. He also gained 6.1 strokes tee to green in Memphis on a course that's similar to East Lake in terms of agronomy and firmness.
There's no reason to think Young will slow down. He's in the running for one of the six remaining Ryder Cup spots, and another strong week would force captain Keegan Bradley to pick him.
Bet: J.J. Spaun (+2000) without Scottie Scheffler
Spaun ranks second in strokes gained: tee to green over two playoff events, elevated by his sensational week at TPC Southwind in Memphis. Spaun also gained 4.9 strokes tee to green last week on a course that doesn't necessarily fit his strengths.
This will be Spaun's first appearance at East Lake, but he's supremely accurate off the tee and is hitting his irons as well as anyone not named Scheffler. That combination should allow him to climb the leaderboard and continue his run of fantastic form.
Bet: Ben Griffin to finish top 10 (+170)
Griffin has quietly put together one of the most impressive seasons on the PGA TOUR. Dating back to May's PGA Championship, Griffin has finished inside the top 15 in nine of 11 starts and won the Charles Schwab Challenge. He'll be on the American Ryder Cup team and should be able to beat two-thirds of the field in Atlanta.
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