Memorial Tournament betting: Who will conquer Muirfield Village?

The PGA TOUR rolls into Dublin, Ohio, this week for the Memorial Tournament - a staple on the golf calendar.

It's the penultimate signature event of the year and the final with a cut. The 72-man field will take on Jack Nicklaus' famed Muirfield Village Golf Club with $4 million to the winner up for grabs. The top 50 and ties after Friday will make it to the weekend.

The course

• 7,569 yards, par 72
• Designed by Jack Nicklaus
• Seven par 4s over 450 yards
• Considered a second-shot course that rewards elite iron play
• Bentgrass greens are smaller than average and well-protected by bunkers

Past winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-9) over Collin Morikawa
2023: Viktor Hovland (-7) over Denny McCarthy
2022: Billy Horschel (-13) over Aaron Wise
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13) over Collin Morikawa
2020: Jon Rahm (-9) over Ryan Palmer
2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19) over Adam Scott
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15) in a playoff over two others
2017: Jason Dufner (-13) over Rickie Fowler, Anirban Lahiri
2016: William McGirt (-15) in a playoff over Jon Curran
2015: Justin Rose (-15) in a playoff over Rickie Fowler
2014: Hideki Matsuyama (-13) in a playoff over Kevin Na
2013: Matt Kuchar (-12) over Kevin Chappell
2012: Tiger Woods (-9) over Andres Romero, Rory Sabbatini

The favorites

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is the prohibitive favorite at +300 at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. He's two starts removed from winning the PGA Championship and came T4 last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he led the field in strokes gained: tee to green. Yes, Scheffler can easily win this tournament, but +300 is a steep price to pay.

The players in the group right behind Scheffler are mostly enticing. Xander Schauffele feels overdue for a victory, Collin Morikawa is a fantastic course fit, and Justin Thomas is playing some of his best golf in recent years. All three are viable options at +1600 and above.

Patrick Cantlay is the only fade in this tier. Even though he's a two-time winner (once when Jon Rahm was forced to withdraw after Round 3 with a six-stroke lead), he's not playing well enough to be considered. He has one top-10 in his last seven starts and is coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship.

The next tier

If you are venturing into this price range, consider betting on the without Scheffler market. Often, you can get a player priced at +4000 in the outright market who may be +3300 in a market that theoretically removes Scheffler from the tournament. The odds are a bit shorter can be more than worth it.

Picks

Xander Schauffele: To win (+1600)

Schauffele plays consistently well at Jack's Place, and even when he doesn't have his best stuff, he can still find a way to post good scores. He hasn't finished worse than tied for 24th in his last six starts at the Memorial.

Additionally, Schauffele is trending toward the form that earned him two majors last year. He has four top-20s in his last five starts and gained 5.6 strokes off the tee at the PGA Championship. If he brings that driving form with him to Ohio and tidies up his approach play, he'll be in the mix for a first victory of the year.

Matt Fitzpatrick: To win (+4500), top-20 finish (+170)

The Englishman is having a down year, and it's been over two years since his last victory at the RBC Heritage. However, there are signs indicating that Fitzpatrick is trending.

He gained 5.8 strokes on approach shots at the PGA Championship, his highest mark since that win two years ago. He's also gained strokes on approach in three straight tournaments, something he hasn't done since - you guessed it - 2023.

Fitzpatrick has three top-10 finishes at the Memorial in his last five starts, displaying his affinity toward the Nicklaus layout. He's a bit of a long shot at +4500 but one with far more upside than the odds suggest.

Sepp Straka: Top-20 finish (+155)

We love Straka in these parts. He's consistently undervalued, being priced alongside players in worse form and with less upside. Straka won the Truist Championship two starts ago for his second victory of the season. He has nine top-20 results in 14 starts this year - a 64.3% rate - while his odds imply a probability of only 39.2%.

Straka came tied for fifth at the Memorial in 2024 and finished T16 the year prior. Keep backing Straka while the market is slow to catch up.

Tony Finau: Top-20 finish (+170)

Finau has back-to-back top-20 showings, one at the Truist Championship and one at the PGA Championship. He consistently gains strokes off the tee and flashed with his approach play at Quail Hollow two weeks ago, gaining 5.2 strokes on the field with his irons.

His results over the past few years on TOUR suggest he plays his best golf as June approaches. Finau has five top-20 results at the Memorial in his eight career starts. That's a 62.5% hit rate, while his odds imply a probability of 37%. Take the value and run.