PGA Championship betting preview: Scottie, Rory, or Bryson?

The golf world descends on Quail Hollow Club in North Carolina this week for the PGA Championship, the season's second major.

Golf fans will be familiar with the course, which usually hosts what used to be called the Wells Fargo Championship annually and also held the 2022 Presidents Cup and 2017 PGA Championship. It isn't the flashiest major championship venue, but it should present a stiff test for the game's best and hopefully some Sunday drama.

The course

• Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina
• 7,262 yards, par 71
• Perennial ryegrass fairways and rough with poa trivialis greens (was Bermuda grass throughout in 2017)
• Home of "The Green Mile" (challenging stretch from Nos. 16-18)
• Long par 4s give bombers a distinct advantage
• Comparable venues: Riviera Country Club (Genesis Invitational), Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational)

Past winners at Quail Hollow

2024: Rory McIlroy over Xander Schauffele
2023: Wyndham Clark over Xander Schauffele
2022: No tournament
2021: Rory McIlroy over Abraham Ancer
2020: No tournament
2019: Max Homa (-15) over Joel Dahmen
2018: Jason Day (-12) over Nick Watney, Aaron Wise
2017: Brian Harman (-10) over Dustin Johnson, Pat Perez
2016: James Hahn (-9) in a playoff over Roberto Castro
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21) over Webb Simpson, Patrick Rodgers

The favorites

The trio at the top of the betting board deserves a lot of attention. Rarely do you see three golfers priced below +1000 in a field of 156, but this is the result when Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau are all playing this well. Let's break down these three.

Scheffler: The slight favorite is coming off a dominant victory in Texas for his first win of the year, winning by eight with a score of 31-under. He's clearly in form, but that's not the concern when backing him at +450 in a major championship.

Many of this week's contenders this week have plenty of experience at Quail Hollow. However, Scheffler has always skipped the Wells Fargo Championship and has only competed at the course once as a professional (the 2022 Presidents Cup). That's not to say he can't win despite his relative lack of familiarity, but it's a factor when you're splitting hairs at the top of the oddsboard.

Quail Hollow also tends to reward driving distance far more than elite iron play, and Scheffler is the shortest off the tee of the three favorites.

McIlroy: This event was widely tabbed as the one where McIlroy would snap his major championship drought. He loves Quail Hollow, having won here four times during his career, including his first PGA TOUR victory in 2010. The course perfectly fits McIlroy's game, giving his distance and accuracy off the tee a distinct advantage.

Nothing needs to be said about McIlroy's form. But after winning the Masters, one of two things can happen: He'll be content with his accomplishment at Augusta and take his foot off the gas a little, or he'll be able to play completely freely with the burden of his major drought lifted. Given the kind of competitor that McIlroy is, the latter is more likely, and the rest of the field should be worried.

DeChambeau: Over the past two years, he's turned into one of the best and most well-rounded major championship players in the world. DeChambeau deserves to be included in the conversation with Scheffler and McIlroy, but oddsmakers aren't giving him the same respect.

His game is built on being the best ball-driver in the world, and no course rewards that more than Quail Hollow. PGA Championships and U.S. Opens present similar tests that emphasize distance, and DeChambeau's track record in those majors is strong. He won the U.S. Open last year and was a runner-up to Xander Schauffele at last year's PGA Championship. He also displayed his world-class short game and putting abilities while playing alongside McIlroy in the final pairing at the Masters.

He also won LIV's Korean event in his last start. That was held at a Jack Nicklaus-designed course and, if it's similar to other Nicklaus designs, it likely incentivized hitting the ball long and straight.

The next tier

This next tier is packed with talent at solid odds because the top three are soaking up so much of the win probability. Justin Thomas was a runner-up last week at the Truist Championship in Philadelphia, won the RBC Heritage in April, and took home the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

However, there's a big distinction between the course setup for this week and the one in 2017. Thomas won when the tournament was still played in August. Quail Hollow is much firmer later in the summer and the weather was extremely hot, allowing the ball to travel farther. The course also used Bermuda grass at the time. This May's course will be softer since it's received a ton of rain and it's early in the season. These differences are another reason why distance will be so important for contenders.

Before getting to the picks, let's digest this quote from Thomas on how to attack Quail Hollow.

"As far and straight as possible" leads us to focus on three stats: strokes gained: off the tee, driving distance, and total driving (distance plus accuracy).

The leaders in strokes gained: off the tee for 2025 is here, featuring a few interesting names near the top. McIlroy is first, and Scheffler is second, but Keith Mitchell (+11000), Taylor Pendrith (+17500), and Ludvig Aberg (+2200) are all inside the top 10.

For driving distance, players like Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Hojgaard, Gary Woodland, and Wyndham Clark (a former winner at Quail Hollow) are all in the top 20 on the PGA TOUR.

That doesn't mean golfers like Collin Morikawa or Shane Lowry can't contend, but they'll need to be nearly perfect because they're giving up so much distance off the tee to the longest players in the field.

Picks

Bryson DeChambeau: To win (+800)

If forced to rank the top three, it would go McIlroy, DeChambeau, then Scheffler. And since very little separates DeChambeau and McIlroy in terms of course fit, recent form, and recent major championship results, we'll opt for the player with more appealing odds.

DeChambeau will have a big advantage over nearly everyone in the field because of his distance. In baseball, defense never slumps; in golf, it's distance. Russell Henley isn't walking to the first tee and magically driving the ball 330 yards. But DeChambeau has the chance to do that every time, and combined with how well he's been chipping and putting, he'll be in the mix once again Sunday.

Min Woo Lee: To win (+9000), top-20 finish (+300)

Since we're paying up at the top with DeChambeau, we have to jump well down the outright market oddsboard for our next selection to ensure a nice return if DeChambeau or Min Woo Lee wins. Loading up with favorites can get very expensive if none of them hoist the trophy.

Lee is a great option at +9000. He's the fourth-longest driver of the ball on the PGA TOUR and is a recent winner of the Houston Open at Memorial Park, another course that rewards driving distance. In his last five starts at U.S. Opens and PGA Championships, his worst finish is a T27, and he tied for fifth at the 2023 U.S. Open. The Aussie can get hot with his putter and is really good around the greens. Lee is a poor man's DeChambeau with extremely long odds.

Xander Schauffele: Top-10 finish (+230)

It's Schauffele at a major championship, and we're getting +230 for a top-10 finish? Sign me up.

Schauffele has yet to reach the elite form he displayed last year when he won two majors, but he has four straight top-20s, including a T8 at the Masters. He was the runner-up at Quail Hollow the past two years during signature events and is the defending PGA champion. Schauffele's finished top 10 in 16 of 31 major championship starts (51.6% hit rate), including seven of the past nine, but +230 odds imply a probability of only 30.3%.

Rasmus Hojggard: Top-20 finish (+500)

Hojgaard is eighth on the PGA TOUR in driving distance and is a very good long-iron player. There isn't a course in the world that's too long for the 24-year-old Dane.

He came T23 last week at the Truist Championship and gained 3.8 shots off the tee. He also placed a respectable T32 in his debut at the Masters. Hojgaard doesn't have a ton of major championship experience, but he made the cut at last year's PGA Championship and is playing much better golf this season. There are far worse players with +500 odds to finish inside the top 20, and Hojgaard's game suits Quail Hollow very well.