Truist Championship betting preview: Xander poised for winner's circle return

The PGA TOUR heads to Philadelphia this week for the Truist Championship (formerly the Wells Fargo Championship), the sixth signature event of the season.

This tournament is usually held at Quail Hollow Golf Club, but with the PGA Championship scheduled there next week, Philadelphia Cricket Club will host instead.

Scottie Scheffler, last week's winner and World No. 1, is the only notable player skipping the event, electing to take a week off before the PGA Championship. The field is still loaded in what will be the final tune-up for the season's second major.

The course

• 7,119 yards, par 70
• A.W. Tillinghast design - same architect as Winged Foot, Bethpage Black
• Nine par 4s under 450 yards
• Two par 5s are 546 and 553 yards
• Short course that will put a premium on short-iron play
• The course's main defense will be its greens and surrounding areas

The favorites

Odds via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet

Without Scheffler, Rory McIlroy is atop the oddsboard by a wide margin. The Masters champion is playing the best golf of anyone in the field and deserves to be the heavy favorite. However, it doesn't appear that McIlroy's biggest strength - his distance - will give him as big of an edge over the field as it typically does, so backing him at a very short price is tough to do.

On paper, this course looks perfectly tailored for Collin Morikawa's game. He should have a short iron in his hands on most of his approach shots, and few in the world can compete with Morikawa from inside 150 yards. But that was also the case for Morikawa in his most recent start at Harbour Town, where he finished in a tie for 54th. He's a pass at +1500.

Justin Thomas won the last signature event - the RBC Heritage - and should thrive at Philly Cricket Club. He leads the TOUR in proximity from 125-150 yards and is seventh in strokes gained: approach. Thomas is a strong option at +1800 if you think he can win in back-to-back starts.

The next tier

You can't draw up a better course for Russell Henley. He's elite with a wedge and is putting extremely well. Henley already won a signature event this year and came T8 at the RBC Heritage in his last start.

Viktor Hovland, Corey Conners, Shane Lowry, Daniel Berger, and Sepp Straka all fit this course well based on their statistical profiles. With that said, let's get to the picks.

Picks

Xander Schauffele: To win (+1600)

Few prices stand out as value in the outright market, so we'll use our single bullet on Xander Schauffele at +1600.

There's a lot to like about Schauffele as a bet this week. First, he's a bona fide winner and isn't far removed from claiming two major championships in a three-month window. Second, Schauffele's game is trending upward since returning from injury. He has three straight top-20 finishes, including at the Valspar Championship, where he had his best week ever with his irons. You're still getting an injury discount on Schauffele, even though his issue is a thing of the past.

Third, Schauffele plays well at major championships, most notably the U.S. Open. This week isn't a major, but it's a one-off venue that players need to study intensely before Thursday's Round 1. Schauffele has proven his ability to quickly get comfortable at unfamiliar venues, which could be a big advantage this week.

Finally, Schauffele ranks first in a statistical model that weights proximity from inside 150 yards, strokes gained: putting, and strokes gained: off the tee over the last 100 rounds. Package all the above points, and you get a perfect opportunity to take a shot at a +1600 winner.

Tournament matchup: Russell Henley (-115) over Jordan Spieth

I'm not willing to anoint Jordan Spieth as "back" after he played well at courses he's historically performed at. He's finished top 20 in four straight tournaments, but two came in Texas (his home state), the Masters (where he always plays well), and the RBC Heritage (a venue he's won at).

Henley's game should fit perfectly at the Philadelphia Cricket Club, and he can easily beat Spieth in this matchup.

Tournament matchup: Robert MacIntyre (-115) over Min Woo Lee

This is more of a play against Min Woo Lee than one on Robert MacIntyre. Philadelphia Cricket Club should require precision on approach shots into the greens, and that's something Lee doesn't have. Meanwhile, MacIntyre is a good wedge player and won the Canadian Open last year on a short, wedge-heavy course (Hamilton Golf and Country Club).

Justin Thomas: Top 20 finish (-130)

There's no reason to think Thomas' play will slow down after his win at Harbour Town. He looks to have rediscovered his game and returned to golf's elite tier alongside Schauffele and Morikawa. Backing Thomas at +1800 in the outright market was enticing, but we'll opt for the much safer route and pay -130 for him to finish in the top 20 at a venue that should put his wedge game on display.

Sepp Straka: Top 20 finish (+175)

Sepp Straka ranks second in the aforementioned statistical model that has Schauffele on top, but he places first if you narrow the timeframe down to the last 50 rounds. Straka continually gets overlooked in the betting market despite being one of the best iron players in the world. He's second in strokes gained: approach this season behind only Scheffler.

Straka has finished inside the top 20 in eight of 12 starts this season - a 66.6% success rate - while his odds implied a probability of only 36.4%.