Fading World No. 1 Scheffler? Finding value for the American Express

The result of the Sony Open offered a harsh reminder: Picking outright winners in golf is hard.

We offered up three outright selections last week - J.T. Poston, Keegan Bradley, and Emiliano Grillo - and all three finished inside the top 10. Bradley was a -300 favorite standing on the tee of the 72nd hole but failed to birdie the easy 18th to drop into a three-man playoff, which was eventually won by Grayson Murray.

The lesson learned here is it's often smarter - and more profitable - to back players in the top 10 and 20 markets. You can do all the research you want, pick the right golfers, and still come up short in the outright market. Luckily, Nick Taylor cashed a +400 top-20 wager to nearly get us back to even.

Let's turn the page as the PGA TOUR returns stateside for The American Express in Palm Springs, California. A 156-man group will take on three different courses at PGA West - Pete Dye Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club - before a 54-hole cut occurs and the remaining golfers play the Stadium Course for the final round.

Previous winners

2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
2022: Hudson Swafford (-23)
2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
2019: Adam Long (-26)
2018: Jon Rahm (-22)
2017: Hudson Swafford (-20)
2016: Jason Dufner (-25)
2015: Bill Haas (-22)
2014: Patrick Reed (-28)

The favorites

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the clear-cut favorite at +550, which are incredibly short odds for anyone in a field of this strength. There's a reason Scheffler is this short, as he's finished inside the top five in 14 of his last 20 events. However, in a tournament two-time champ Jon Rahm once deemed a "putting contest," do you really want to back the 143rd-ranked putter in the field over the past 50 rounds at +550?

Patrick Cantlay is next at +900. In his last three appearances in Palm Springs, Cantlay has finished no worse than T9, and he came second in 2021. Still, +850 is short, and it may be best to target Cantlay's consistency at this tournament with a top-10 bet at +110 or in a head-to-head matchup versus either Scheffler or Xander Schauffele.

Of the favorites, Sungjae Im or Tom Kim would be the most valuable picks. Im has played this tournament five times and finished no worse than T18 in those starts. He also came T5 at The Sentry. Kim, who generally excels at shorter courses that demand accuracy, came T6 in Palm Springs last year.

The next tier

Sam Burns is the first name that stands out in this range. Not because his price at +3000 is jaw-dropping, but rather, when compared to players such as Im, Min Woo Lee, or J.T. Poston, he's in a different tier when it comes to winning on the PGA TOUR. Burns also has success in Palm Springs, as three of his four starts have resulted in top 20s.

Si Woo Kim is a former American Express winner and a golfer who tends to play well on courses that require accuracy off the tee. He gained 7.2 strokes tee to green last week in Hawaii and already has two tournaments under his belt to start the year.

Finally, Chris Kirk deserves recognition for his run of play. He followed up a win at The Sentry by gaining 9.2 strokes tee to green at the Sony Open but struggled with his putter en route to a T18.

Picks

Tom Kim: Top 10 (+260)

Kim's a viable option to pick as a winner, but +2200 feels a tad shorter than we'd like. He'd be a bet if he was in the +3000 range.

But as we've learned, you don't always need to bet the outright winner market to have profitable weeks. Kim at +260 to finish in the top 10 is the route to go, especially at courses that resemble the venues he's found success at in his career. He's a two-time winner of the Shriners in Las Vegas, another desert course that isn't overly long. He played well in his first start of 2024 at The Sentry, aside from his putting.

Sam Burns: Top 10 (+375)

Like Kim, you shouldn't be faulted for wanting to back Burns in the outright market at +3000 if you're looking to hit a winner. But we'll recommend the safer top-10 option at +375.

Burns was T11 at Palm Springs last year and T6 in 2020. He's one of the best putters in the field and can get extremely hot with his irons. That's the exact combination you need to win a tournament that usually turns into a shootout.

Si Woo Kim: To Win (+4500), Top 20 (+200)

Si Woo Kim is the first outright recommendation at +4500 since he has a higher winning upside than a handful of players who are priced below him. As mentioned, Kim tends to play well at the same tournaments year after year.

The former Players champ has played in Palm Springs five times, making the cut on each occasion with only one finish outside of the top 22. Add on a top-20 wager as some insurance (0.05 units on the outright, one unit on the top 20).

Nick Taylor: To win (+11000), Top 20 (+425)

Now is not the time to get off Nick Taylor after he came through last week with a solid T7 showing. He's still not getting rated properly by the betting market as his +11000 price tag is double that of Adam Hadwin's, another Canadian with an extremely similar skill set.

Taylor gained 4.2 strokes tee to green in Honolulu and added another 4.6 strokes on the greens. He now returns to his preferred putting surface (poa grass) at venues that set up well for him. Taylor's played in this event nine times and made the cut in five of his past seven appearances.

Patton Kizzire: To win (+15000), Top 20 (+500)

Patton Kizzire is the final selection of the week at a whopping +15000, but this is more of a play on his top-20 number.

He placed T13 last week at the Sony Open, gaining strokes off the tee through approach shots and on the greens, where his 8.6 strokes gained with his putter was fourth in the field.

Kizzire also has experience at this tournament, playing it eight times with only two missed cuts and a T11 last year.