Canadian Open betting: What are the odds a Canadian breaks the drought?
It's Pat Fletcher week in Canada.
Fletcher is the last Canadian to win the country's national professional open, way back in 1954 at Point Grey in Vancouver. It makes him the answer to Canadian golf's least favorite trivia question, which arises for one week each year.
Many have tried, and all have come up short. But Canada's roster of professionals has never been deeper - and arguably never been better. So, in theory, it should be a matter of time.
The two closest since 1954 are in the field this week but are long past their prime. Mike Weir looked like he would do it in 2004, but lost to Vijay Singh in a playoff as the Fijian took over the World No. 1 ranking. In 2015, David Hearn took a 2-shot lead into the final round before finishing third behind Jason Day, then at the peak of his powers.
We've already looked at the field as a whole and what the best bets are overall. Oddsmakers are aware the Canadian golfers will be focused on snapping the nearly 70-year drought at a tournament that might be merely a tuneup for the U.S. Open or a standard money-making event for some.
Odds for Canadians to win the Canadian Open
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Corey Conners | +1600 |
| Adam Hadwin | +4000 |
| Adam Svensson | +5000 |
| Nick Taylor | +6600 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +8000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +8000 |
| Roger Sloan | +50000 |
| Stuart MacDonald | +50000 |
| Myles Creighton | +50000 |
| David Hearn | +50000 |
| Michael Gligic | +75000 |
| Mike Weir | +100000 |
| Johnny Travale | +100000 |
| Wil Bateman | +100000 |
| Taylor Dunham | +100000 |
| Daniel Kim | +100000 |
| Ben Silverman | +100000 |
| Aaron Cockerill | +100000 |
| Sebastian Szirmak | +100000 |
Corey Conners is given the best chance to break the curse. At +1600, that's an implied win probability of 5.9%. As we go on down the board, five more Canadians could be reasonably predicted to be in the hunt. Their implied win probability adds up to 8.3%. The short answer is the betting market thinks there's a 14.2% chance that a Canadian will win this week.
Since we know that 14.2% translates to slightly more than 6-to-1 odds, the +800 payout available for any Canadian to win the event is a pretty good deal.
Top Canadian
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Corey Conners | +250 |
| Adam Hadwin | +500 |
| Adam Svensson | +700 |
| Nick Taylor | +700 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +900 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +900 |
The top six Canadians have a high of 16-of-20 cuts made (Adam Svensson), nine top 25s (Conners and Nick Taylor), more than four top-fives (Taylor and Adam Hadwin), and three wins this season (Svensson, Conners, and Mackenzie Hughes). On any given week, any of these players could have the best result. Conners is the highest ranked of the sextet, but prior to a sixth-place finish at last year's Canadian Open, his best finish was 80th with a flurry of missed cuts.
An elaborate menu of Canadian-centric betting markets is available at theScore Bet for how you want to back or fade the locals this week.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.