Canadian Open betting: Who can adapt quickest to an unfamiliar course?

For years, veteran PGA TOUR pro Billy Horschel had little-to-no success at The Memorial, often shooting in the mid-70s to start the week and playing from behind the rest of the way, just hoping to make the cut. Then last week, he won at Muirfield Village, relatively comfortably, by four shots.

There were no signs that Horschel would find it at "Jack's Place," either, with nothing in his recent finishes to indicate he was in particularly good form. There have been four tournaments at Muirfield Village since the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020 - the most of any course - and we still would be hard-pressed to predict him as last week's winner. In fact, we thought he was a miss-the-cut candidate.

Anyone who plays golf, or watches the professionals, knows how difficult success is to predict at the best of times. Now we turn the page to the return of the Canadian Open - an event that hasn't been played since 2019 and hasn't been played at St. George's Golf and Country Club since 2010. That year's winner, Carl Pettersson, isn't likely to be atop the leaderboard this week.

Power draws

Justin Thomas (10-1)

Thomas took his much-deserved week off by skipping The Memorial, but he's back at the Canadian Open after first playing the event in Hamilton in 2019. He was 20th that week but shot in the 60s in the final three rounds.

With ample room to drive the ball, but the rough expected to be significantly penal, we'll want to back golfers that have been good at saving par from greenside rough. Thomas is eighth on TOUR in scrambling from the rough, getting up-and-down two-thirds of the time. A conservative bet on Thomas would be for a top-20 finish (-160), with a slightly more aggressive play being a top-10 result (+125).

Shane Lowry (18-1)

Going into last week, Lowry was sixth on the TOUR in saves from rough around the green, but he was just OK at The Memorial in that category. He's 11th in strokes gained: approach, so Lowry can hit greens efficiently and save strokes when he doesn't. At even-money, he's a good bet for a top-20 finish and will be in the mix come Sunday.

Mike Weir (750-1)

For an obligatory Canadian to back, let's turn back the clock. Corey Conners and Adam Hadwin will be popular nationals, but that also means you're not getting any deals on them. Weir has had consistent success at PGA Tour Champions events and is coming off a T4 at the Senior PGA Championship. He won't contend necessarily, but he's +400 for a top-40 finish, which is a price worth taking a look at.

Soft fades

Jhonattan Vegas

Vegas might have nearly been made an honorary Canadian after back-to-back victories at Glen Abbey, but his success there is actually the biggest reason to fade the Venezuelan this year. St. George's is decidedly different from its neighbor in nearby Oakville, Ontario. Vegas is 105th in scrambling from the rough, and he didn't play when the Canadian Open went to Hamilton in 2019. He's +162 to miss the cut, which wouldn't be out of the question if he were playing in a tournament that didn't have his name on the trophy.

Sam Burns

Burns has been boom-or-bust since the start of the PGA TOUR's California swing, winning tournaments and also missing cuts. That's an optimal strategy for making money as a TOUR player, but it also provides opportunities for bettors. Burns is 152nd from greenside rough this season, which might cost him a few strokes early on a course he's never played before. At +350 to head home Friday, he's worth a fade with an eye on Brookline and next week's U.S. Open.

Corey Conners

As the top-ranked Canuck, Conners is a good candidate to make this pick look bad, but we'll use him as a reminder that no Canadian has won the Canadian Open since Pat Fletcher in 1954. Try not to get your expectations too high for him, Hadwin, or Mackenzie Hughes at relatively short prices.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.