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Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview: Back Englishmen at Bay Hill

Andrew Redington/WME IMG / WME IMG / Getty

New to golf betting? Check out theScore's PGA Tour wagering guide here. All odds listed are courtesy of theScore Bet and are subject to change.

It was another close call with Brooks Koepka last week at the WGC-Workday Championship, but in the end, no one could catch Collin Morikawa.

Turning the page to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, for which a field of 123 players will take on Bay Hill for the Tour's annual tribute to one of golf's icons.

Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau headline the group, with Tyrrell Hatton returning as the defending champion.

The course

  • Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, Florida
  • 7,466 yards, par 72
  • Bermudagrass greens
  • Four reachable par 5s
  • All four par 3s over 195 yards
  • Water in play on nine holes
  • Recent winners also found success at Torrey Pines

Past winners

2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4) over Marc Leishman
2019: Francesco Molinari (-12) over Matthew Fitzpatrick
2018: Rory McIlroy (-18) over Bryson DeChambeau
2017: Marc Leishman (-11) over Charley Hoffman, Kevin Kisner
2016: Jason Day (-17) over Kevin Chappell
2015: Matt Every (-19) over Henrik Stenson
2014: Matt Every (-13) over Keegan Bradley
2013: Tiger Woods (-13) over Justin Rose

The favorites

Player Odds
Bryson DeChambeau +1000
Rory McIlroy +1100
Viktor Hovland +1200
Patrick Reed +1800
Tyrrell Hatton +1900

DeChambeau is a slight favorite over McIlroy with prices of +1000 and +1100, respectively. McIlroy is almost universally the favorite across all oddsboards, so you're getting a bit of a discount on him here.

Both Hovland and Reed are fairly priced, but it's Hatton who stands out as value.

The defending champion is built for Bay Hill. He hits his long irons better than most in the field and is great on and around Bermudagrass greens. If conditions get tough like they did last year, the Englishman is perfectly suited to handle a little extra wind. He won on the European Tour four starts ago and gained 4.6 strokes on approach shots last week at the WGC.

If you're going to take one of the favorites, Hatton is by far the best option.

The next tier

Player Odds
Louis Oosthuizen +2200
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2200
Paul Casey +2200
Sungjae Im +2500
Billy Horschel +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Jason Day +3200
Jordan Spieth +3300
Jason Kokrak +3500
Francesco Molinari +3800
Sam Burns +4200
Tommy Fleetwood +4200
Will Zalatoris +4200

Im at +2500 needs to be an option. He finished third in each of his two appearances at Bay Hill and loves Florida golf. He won the Honda Classic last year and is averaging the most strokes gained: total per round (minimum 15 rounds) of anyone on the PGA Tour in the last six years, according to CBS Sports' Rick Gehman.

Molinari (+3800) is a former champion who has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts this season and seems relatively underpriced.

Burns has also been playing extremely well of late. He was in the final group at both the Farmers Insurance Open and Genesis Invitational. Many believe a win for the 24-year-old is coming soon, and Bay Hill fits his game very well.

Zalatoris is another player in this range worth considering. In his short PGA Tour career, he's shown an ability to perform on difficult courses. Like Burns, a win for the Tour rookie should come in 2021.

Long shots

There are some very interesting names with juicy odds this week. You could build a really strong betting card with only players priced above +5000. Here are a few worth looking at:

  • Harris English (+5000): He's just five starts removed from winning in Hawaii and returns to a venue at which he's played well throughout his career. This is a great buy-low opportunity.
  • Marc Leishman (+5200): The 2017 winner at Bay Hill has turned his game around in 2021 after the COVID-19 pandemic knocked him out of his rhythm. He was also the runner-up to Hatton at this event last year.
  • Justin Rose (+6500): The Englishman came second to Dustin Johnson in Saudi Arabia two starts ago. He was a runner-up at Bay Hill in 2013 and came third in 2018. He's a winner at Torrey Pines, as well.
  • Keegan Bradley (+9000): He's missed one cut at Bay Hill in nine appearances with two finishes inside the top three. He continues to play well tee-to-green and could easily contend if he putts field average.
  • Henrik Norlander (+11000): The Swede is one of the best ball-strikers in the field and finished second at Torrey Pines four starts ago. He historically performs better on Bermudagrass.

Picks to win

Tommy Fleetwood (+4200)

Sam Greenwood / Getty Images Sport / Getty

We're swinging for the fences this week and starting with Fleetwood at +4200.

Fleetwood had some decent showings on the European Tour to begin his 2021 season. He came T-7 in Abu Dhabi then T-17 in Dubai. Last week, in his first start on the PGA Tour of the year, he hit the ball well but lost over six strokes putting.

This week presents a sneaky buy-low option on the 21st ranked player in the world, who does some of his best work on the PGA Tour in Florida. Fleetwood came third at Bay Hill in 2019 and T-10 in 2017, and five of his top-15 showings on the Tour have come in the Sunshine State. When compared to some of his peers in the same price range, Fleetwood is undervalued based on his talent and pedigree.

Marc Leishman (+5200)

Ben Jared / PGA TOUR / Getty

It was a tough call between Molinari and Leishman when deciding on one of the two former champs, but we'll go with the latter at much higher odds.

There's something about Leishman that clicks when he shows up at Bay Hill. In 11 starts at the event, he's missed two cuts but has four top-10 finishes, including his win (2017), a runner-up (2020), and a third-place result (2011).

Aside from last week at a tough venue, the Aussie has been hitting his ball much better compared to how he was in late 2020. His fourth-place showing at the Sony Open proves his game is in fine form.

Justin Rose (+6500)

Sam Greenwood / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Regardless of his recent results, Rose at +6500 needs to be considered. Add in the fact that he came second recently in a stout European Tour field, and your interest should be piqued.

The former world No. 1 said he recently reconnected with swing coach Sean Foley, a positive sign he's working hard to fine-tune his game. Sometimes, a small fix is all a player needs.

Rose also owns a solid track record at Bay Hill. In his last 11 starts, he has four top-10 results and three of those were top-three finishes. He's also a former winner at Torrey Pines and will look to join Tiger Woods, Jason Day, and Leishman as players who have won at both Torrey and Bay Hill since 2013.

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