Masters betting preview: It's JT's time to break through at Augusta
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It's Masters week, baby! And from a betting perspective, it's golf's equivalent to the Super Bowl.
Everything about the PGA Tour's stop at Augusta National is special. The field, the course, the traditions - nothing rivals this week, and golf fans have waited an extra seven months for it to arrive. So, let's not waste any more time.
The course
- Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia
- 7,475 yards, par 72
- Bentgrass greens
- All four par 5s under 600 yards
- Long par 4s place premium on approach play
- Tests every aspect of players' games
Past Winners
2019: Tiger Woods (-13) over Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele
2018: Patrick Reed (-15) over Rickie Fowler
2017: Sergio Garcia (-9) in playoff over Justin Rose
2016: Danny Willett (-5) over Jordan Spieth, Lee Westwood
2015: Jordan Spieth (-18) over Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose
2014: Bubba Watson (-8) over Jonas Blixt, Jordan Spieth
2013: Adam Scott (-9) in playoff over Angel Cabrera
2012: Bubba Watson (-10) in playoff over Louis Oosthuizen
Betting on Tiger
Tiger Woods is +3000 to defend his green jacket and tie Jack Nicklaus for the most Masters victories of all time with six. Woods' game hasn't been sharp for nearly a year, and he's shown no signs of turning a corner in recent outings. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open and placed 72nd out of 77 players in his title defense at the Zozo Championship. A win for Tiger this week would be shocking.
With that said, no one in the field knows Augusta National better than Woods, so completely counting him out wouldn't be wise. The Masters is one of a few tournaments that he can still win at this point in his career because it doesn't penalize inaccurate drives and rewards Tiger's best trait - iron play.
Betting outlook: Yellow light. The +3000 is about as large as you will ever see for the 81-time PGA Tour winner, and if you want to have some additional rooting interest in Woods, go for it. But Woods is far down the list.
The favorites
| Player | Odds | Best Masters results |
|---|---|---|
| Bryson DeChambeau | +700 | T-21 (2016) |
| Jon Rahm | +700 | 4th (2018) |
| Dustin Johnson | +800 | T-2 (2019) |
| Justin Thomas | +1200 | T-12 (2019) |
| Xander Schauffele | +1200 | T-2 (2019) |
| Brooks Koepka | +1300 | T-2 (2019) |
| Rory McIlroy | +1400 | 4th (2015) |
Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm are listed as co-favorites at +700, but the buzz surrounding DeChambeau makes him a much more polarizing option at that price.
The longest hitter on PGA Tour displayed his dominance at the U.S. Open and looks poised to repeat that performance at Augusta. His distance off the tee gives him such an advantage over the competition, it's hard to imagine anyone but DeChambeau sliding on the green jacket Sunday.
However, there are plenty of elite golfers to beat, and he still needs to putt at an elite level. He's an obvious choice, but we're trying to maximize value on an outright bet, and DeChambeau at +700 isn't the best way to do that.
Dustin Johnson could also run away with a victory but, like DeChambeau and Rahm, the price doesn't provide enough value to warrant a selection.
That leaves the group priced above +1000 with Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka standing out the most. Xander Schauffele is a fantastic player but doesn't deserve to be placed among the field's elite players. Rory McIlroy simply isn't playing well enough to warrant the belief that he will piece it all together at Augusta.
The next tier
| Player | Odds | Best Masters results |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | +2000 | N/A |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2200 | T-9 (2019) |
| Bubba Watson | +2500 | 1st (2012/2014) |
| Matthew Wolff | +2500 | N/A |
| Patrick Reed | +2800 | 1st (2018) |
| Tony Finau | +2800 | T-5 (2019) |
| Tiger Woods | +3000 | 1st (5 times) |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +3000 | T-44 (2018) |
| Webb Simpson | +3200 | T-5 (2019) |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +4000 | 5th (2015) |
| Jason Day | +4000 | T-2 (2011) |
| Adam Scott | +4500 | 1st (2013) |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +4500 | T7 (2016) |
This range has produced winners in Masters past. Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia were both around +4000 when they won. Tiger opened in the +2000 range for last year's victory as did Bubba Watson and Adam Scott for their green jacket victories. But 2020 feels different due to the amount of top-tier talent playing so impressively.
Watson is hitting the ball very well and is worth a look at +2500 as a two-time champion. Reed can never be counted out in a major, especially as a past winner. Tony Finau consistently puts himself into the mix in majors and should be helped by the experience of playing with Tiger in the final group last year.
But it's two Australians who are deserving of your attention in Jason Day at +4000 and Scott at +4500.
Day played great last week in Houston, gaining 7.4 strokes tee to green en route to a seventh-place showing. He also has four top 10s at Augusta in his nine career appearances, with no result worse than a T-22 (ignoring his withdrawal in 2012).
Scott is a former Masters champ who struck the ball very well last week in his first start since testing positive for COVID-19. He continues to drive home the point that he's unsatisfied with being a one-time major champion, and his three top 10s in his past six majors indicate he takes it to another level when the season's biggest events roll around.
The long shots
It was tough to make the case for a player in the middle tier, and it's very difficult to sell the idea of a long-shot winner this week. So, here are a few players who could place in the top-five or 10. (Odds provided are to win outright.)
Cameron Champ (+10000): He's incredibly long off the tee and came 10th at the PGA Championship. His ball-striking numbers over his past three events rank inside the top 10 in the field.
Cameron Smith (+10000): The Aussie placed tied for fifth at the 2018 Masters and has rattled off an 11th and tied-for-fourth showing in his two most recent starts.
Jason Kokrak (+10000): He recently won the CJ Cup over a stacked field and is consistently one of the longest hitters on Tour. He's making his debut at Augusta but possesses the skills to make the test easier than other debutants.
Corey Conners (+20000): The Canadian is making his third start at the Masters and always ranks near the top in strokes gained: tee to green. That skill alone can push Conners inside the top 10.
Picks to win
Justin Thomas (+1200)
All the signs point toward a Thomas victory at Augusta. He's playing great, coming off a runner-up result at the Zozo Championship and an eighth-place showing at the U.S. Open. He also placed third at the Tour Championship without counting starting strokes.
His Masters track record is also encouraging, as he's improved year after year with a tied-for-12th showing in 2019 representing his best finish. He led the field in strokes gained: tee to green last year but was let down by a cold putter.
Thomas is comparable to both Rahm and Johnson in terms of skill set, recent results, and Masters history, but his odds are much more enticing at +1200.
Brooks Koepka (+1300)
Koepka proved he's healthy and in form last week in Houston by shooting 65-65 to finish in a tie for fifth. And his record in majors doesn't need repeating. Somehow, he figures out a way to show up and be a force in these big tournaments even when not playing his best.
Like Thomas, Koepka has improved upon each of his Masters results. He came 33rd in his debut, then 21st, 11th, and runner-up to Tiger last year. If you want to bet on someone who's all-but-guaranteed to be sniffing around come Sunday, Koepka is your guy.