We're back in the winner's circle! Hopefully, there were some people out there who were able to cash a +3500 ticket thanks to Patrick Cantlay's victory at the Zozo Championship. Let's keep the good times rolling.
The Bermuda Championship is on deck with a field that pales in comparison to the previous two events. There are few names that jump out immediately when looking at the oddsboard because a lot of the players in the field have never won before. With that said, there will still be a champion come week's end, but we'll have to dig a little deeper to try to figure out who that might be.
|Harold Varner III||+1800|
Will Zalatoris tops the betting board at +1200. The Korn Ferry Tour star only needs a top-70 finish in Bermuda to secure a special temporary membership on the PGA Tour, and his three top-10 showings over his last four starts suggest that should be an easy feat. However, he's tough to back as the market leader despite his consistency.
It's also a pass on Harold Varner III, Emiliano Grillo, and defending champion Brendon Todd. There is simply too small of a talent gap between this trio compared to players priced at double or triple the odds.
If forced to choose from the favorites, Doc Redman would be the selection at +2800. He's flirted with victory recently, finishing tied for third in two of his last five starts. Additionally, his impressive ball-striking skills should translate to plenty of birdie opportunities at the short Port Royal.
Value starts to become more apparent in this range with three players at +3000 deserving of attention.
Aaron Wise placed third in Bermuda last year, has already won on the PGA Tour, and has finished eighth and tied for 17th in his five most recent starts. Yes, he missed the cut in the other three outings, but trust Wise to have a good week if the wind picks up in Port Royal, as he's one of the best ball-strikers in the field in breezy conditions.
Denny McCarthy (+3000) has been solid as of late and tied for 15th in Bermuda last year. However, his run of elite iron play has tailed off and he's reverted back to depending on his putter to produce results.
The Bermuda Championship feels like the type of event where a long shot comes out of nowhere to win, especially with the likelihood of unpredictable weather in the forecast. Here are a few who could take it, or at least crack the top 10:
Russell Knox (+4500): The Scot will have no issues if the wind is howling in Bermuda, and he's shown his game is rounding into form. He placed ninth at the Safeway Open and gained four strokes through approach shots in two rounds at the Shriners Hospitals Open before missing the cut. Knox also has a handful of top 10s in Mayakoba and at the RBC Heritage.
Tyler McCumber (+6500): The 29-year-old loves tropical golf. Three of his four best finishes on the PGA Tour came on an island, including a runner-up result in Punta Cana three starts ago. Additionally, 10 of his top 20 results, based on Official World Golf Ranking, came south of the United States.
Max Homa (+10000): Homa is mispriced based on his talent. He's shown flashes that suggest he can compete with the best in the world, including his victory at the Wells Fargo Championship. Homa hasn't played great lately, but that's baked into his price, which is too good to pass up.
Branden Grace (+10000): The short-hitting South African has quietly played well as of late despite not having the results to prove it. His putter has let him down, but he sat in a tie for second before withdrawing from the Barracuda Championship due to a positive COVID-19 test.
Charley Hoffman (+3000)
We're using motivation and inspiration to formulate the betting card for the week, starting with the 43-year-old Hoffman. He's running out of opportunities to win again on the PGA Tour, but he should love his chances this week due to his run of solid form combined with the recent flurry of winners in their 40s.
The four-time Tour victor finished 13th at The Northern Trust, 14th in Punta Cana, and sixth at the Sanderson Farms Championship, all within his last five starts. Port Royal's layout is similar to the Mayakoba Golf Classic's - where Hoffman has won - which should help level the playing field and allow shorter hitters like Hoffman to contend.
Henrik Stenson (+3000)
Despite being the second-highest ranked player in the field, Stenson currently sits outside the top 50 in the world rankings. That means he hasn't yet qualified for the 2021 Masters or any of the 2021 World Golf Championships. And he's currently on the outside looking in for the 2021 Ryder Cup team.
Stenson should be highly motivated to perform well in Bermuda, just like fellow European Sergio Garcia did a few weeks ago at the Sanderson Farms Championship. The Swede showed form at the tournament Garcia won in Mississippi and gained strokes in all categories except on the greens in his most recent start. He's also performed very well on short Bermudagrass courses throughout his career.
Russell Knox (+4500)
Knox should find some inspiration after watching his fellow Scot Martin Laird win in Las Vegas three weeks ago. Add in the fact that Knox seems to have turned a corner and is starting to hit the ball like he used to when he cracked the top 20 in the world, and the stars are aligning for the 35-year-old to break through for the first time on the PGA Tour since 2016.