Dustin Johnson holds a one-shot lead going into the final round of the PGA Championship, leaving oddsmakers no choice but to list the 21-time Tour winner as the favorite to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy.
Here's how the betting board looks with one day remaining:
Johnson's price is fair at +275 but tough to back simply because the payoff isn't substantial enough to get the juices flowing. He also putted the lights out Saturday by gaining nearly five strokes on the green. That type of performance with the putter is very hard to replicate, so it's easy to see one of the chasers passing Johnson, who failed to convert his three previous 54-hole leads in majors.
Scottie Scheffler (+1100) and Cameron Champ (+1100) sit one back of Johnson. It would be a huge ask for either of these young stars to claim a major championship this early in their careers. There's certainly a chance that one can pull off a surprise win, but +1100 is too short to take the risk.
Collin Morikawa (+1100) is in a similar boat as Scheffler and Champ, except he needs to erase a two-shot deficit. You can expect Morikawa's putting to normalize on Sunday, as he currently ranks third in strokes gained: putting for the week but isn't known as a world-class putter.
Bryson DeChambeau is the fourth golfer priced at +1100. However, he's four shots off the pace and isn't worth taking a gamble on, as there are similarly talented players in the same position with much longer odds.
Brooks Koepka (+450)
Let's finally talk about the elephant in the room - Brooks Koepka. The two-time defending champion didn't play great Saturday yet is well within striking distance of winning his fifth career major.
Two late birdies in Round 3 after a bizarre stretch of three consecutive bogeys will boost Koepka's confidence entering the final round. His experience and comfort level while contending in majors should give Koepka the leg up on the competition. His price of +450 is only half of his closing odds and worth the risk going into Sunday.
Daniel Berger (+2000)
If you want to take someone further down the board, consider Daniel Berger. He continued to strike the ball beautifully Saturday but ranked 75th of 79 in strokes gained: putting. He's generally a solid putter, so you can anticipate a few more birdies to drop in the final round.
He's going to need some help in order to pull off the victory. Let's say he shoots 65, a score TPC Harding Park has conceded numerous times this week; there's a chance that no one else would get to 11-under, in which case, Berger will, at worst, find himself in a playoff while you hold a +2000 ticket with the opportunity to hedge.