Travelers Championship final-round betting preview
Brendon Todd holds a two-shot lead over Dustin Johnson heading into the final round of the Travelers Championship. And unlike the last two weeks on the PGA Tour, the leaderboard is very spread out with 18 holes left.
At the RBC Heritage, 21 players were within three shots of the lead on the final day. Going into Sunday, two players are within three strokes of Todd, and only six are within five.
A spaced-out leaderboard complicates things from a betting perspective, as there are few players with a real opportunity to win the tournament. Only seven players have been given greater than a 1% chance of standing in the winner's circle on Sunday, according to Data Golf. So tread very lightly.
Here's how the top of the oddsboard shakes out (courtesy of theScore Bet):
| Player | Odds | To Par | T2G rank | Putt rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Todd | +170 | -18 | 1 | 25 |
| Dustin Johnson | +250 | -16 | 2 | 12 |
| Kevin Streelman | +800 | -15 | 6 | 9 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +900 | -13 | 17 | 12 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +1500 | -14 | 14 | 7 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1500 | -10 | 25 | 34 |
| Abraham Ancer | +2000 | -12 | 13 | 26 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 | -9 | 43 | 17 |
| Kevin Na | +3000 | -13 | 31 | 4 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3000 | -8 | 60 | 5 |
| Phil Mickelson | +3000 | -12 | 16 | 21 |
| Viktor Hovland | +4000 | -11 | 4 | 50 |
| Will Gordon | +4000 | -11 | 47 | 3 |
*"T2G" is strokes gained: tee to green through three rounds. "Putt" is strokes gained: putting
The tournament appears to be a two-horse race, with Todd off to a big head start and leading Johnson. But we aren't here to back the favorite with one round left. That might be the smart play, but banking on Todd to back up his 61 on Saturday isn't the most exciting direction to go.
Johnson, on the other hand, is the far superior talent, and he could easily shoot back-to-back sub-65 rounds. He's clearly turned a corner and has now gained over two strokes tee to green in five of his last seven rounds.
There are a couple of names to consider if you're hoping Todd doesn't play well on Sunday and are looking for a long shot who can post a 60.
Mackenzie Hughes already showed he's capable of torching TPC River Highlands when he fired his 60 on Thursday. Another 10-under round is unlikely, but he could easily post 7-under and make Todd earn the victory.
Abraham Ancer and Viktor Hovland are six and seven shots off the lead, respectively, but they possess the ability to go extremely low and could flirt with 21-under for the week.
Kevin Na is another player to think about who's only five back. However, he would need a third straight round of elite putting to earn a chance.
Picks to win
Dustin Johnson (+250)
Unfortunately, Todd is so far ahead it's tough to envision many players giving him a legitimate run aside from Johnson. Playing in the final group will help DJ know exactly what he needs to do in his pursuit of the leader.
Todd has notched two victories this season, but neither came with a 20-time PGA Tour winner breathing down his neck.
Patton Kizzire (+15000)
If you want to swing for the fences on Sunday, Patton Kizzire is only six back and coming off two consecutive rounds of solid ball-striking. Kizzire's putting skill makes him intriguing, and he gained over 2.5 shots on the greens during Round 1 of the Travelers.
If his hot flatstick returns and is combined with Kizzire's recent ball-striking, he's capable of shooting a 10-under 60.