Full betting preview, picks for the Safeway Open

The PGA Tour heads to Napa, California for the Safeway Open this week, with some of the game's most talented golfers beginning their 2019-20 campaigns in wine country.

Silverado Resort's North Course is set to host 144 players who will form perhaps the strongest field ever at the Safeway Open, largely due to its new slot on the Tour schedule. Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, and Adam Scott are all participating. Phil Mickelson, who has become a staple at the Napa event over the years, joins them.

The course

• 7,166 yards, par 72
• Tree-lined fairways emphasize accuracy off the tee
• Poa annua grass greens
• All four par 5s are under 575 yards
• Nine of 10 par 4s shorter than 450 yards

Previous winners

2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
2017: Brendan Steele (-15)
2016: Brendan Steele (-18)
2015: Emiliano Grillo (-15)
2014: Sangmoon Bae (-15)

The favorites

Thomas (13-2) tops the field, with Cantlay (10-1), Scott (16-1), and Matsuyama (16-1) closely following.

Thomas is the deserving favorite to win. He finished T-3 and T-8 in his last two appearances in the Safeway Open in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and the 26-year-old ended last season strong with a win at the BMW Championship. However, his 13-2 number isn't worth backing during his first start in over a month.

Cantlay, Scott, and Matsuyama are all world-class tee-to-green players, and they fit Silverado's North Course perfectly. But the trio might need to knock off rust, as they each last played at the Tour Championship.

If forced to choose from the top, Matsuyama is the best bet at 16-1. He showed flashes of putting brilliance to end last season, and a win appears to be on the horizon for the Japanese star. Scott is a close second, as poa annua is the surface he performs best on with the flatstick.

The next tier

The 20-1 range presents some interesting options, with Bryson DeChambeau (22-1), Sungjae Im (22-1), and Francesco Molinari (22-1) landing here.

DeChambeau hasn't been right since his close call at the 3M Open last year, and he missed the cut at the Greenbrier earlier this fall. Im continues to contend, but it's tough to predict how he'll rebound after losing in a playoff last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Lastly, Molinari played a week ago in England, so his long trip to California to participate in a fall event on the PGA Tour makes little sense. Pass on all three, despite their track records compared to the field.

Golfers listed at 30-1 or above offer the most intriguing plays on the board. Byeong Hun An (30-1), Collin Morikawa (33-1), Ryan Moore (40-1), and Emiliano Grillo (45-1) are all viable options to hoist the trophy on Sunday.

An's near miss last week in Mississippi suggests he's close to collecting his first title, and Morikawa is a future star who's being undervalued. Moore, meanwhile, finished second in Napa last year and tends to thrive on courses that reward accuracy instead of distance. And Grillo won at Silverado in 2015 as a rookie, but three straight tournaments of losing over three strokes putting is concerning.

Abraham Ancer (50-1), Corey Conners (50-1), Bronson Burgoon (60-1), and Harris English (70-1) all suit Silverado's North Course and are worth consideration.

The long shots

With a stronger-than-normal field and plenty of mid-range talent, it's tough to envision a long shot winning the Safeway Open. The course tends to give players an all-around test, and most of the long-shot options come with glaring weaknesses.

However, Nate Lashley (80-1), Brendan Steele (100-1), Si Woo Kim (100-1), and Doc Redman (125-1) are worth a look. Here's the case for each:

• Lashley: His drives are accurate, and he makes a ton of birdies. He won the Rocket Mortgage Classic and finished T-3 in his last start at the Greenbrier.
• Steele: He's a two-time winner of this event. Steele performs well when the PGA Tour is in Napa, regardless of his form entering the tournament.
• Kim: He's gained strokes on approach shots in four straight events after a horrendous stretch with his irons over seven tournaments. Kim is a proven winner on the PGA Tour, and he's often overlooked despite being only 24 years old.
• Redman: The 21-year-old gained over four shots with his irons last week, which is quickly becoming a trend for him. He was the runner-up to Lashley in Detroit, another tournament that emphasizes accuracy off the tee.

Picks to win

Collin Morikawa (33-1)

Morikawa is an elite ball-striker who's already collected his first win. He likely grew up playing on poa annua greens as a Califonia native, so a poor putting performance due to the surface isn't expected.

Additionally, Viktor Hovland would be roughly 20-1 in this top-heavy field, and Im is priced at 22-1. With a resume closely resembling both of those players, Morikawa presents clear value.

Abraham Ancer (50-1)

Why not make it three straight victories for Spanish-speaking players?

Perhaps the best player on the PGA Tour raised south of the United States border, Ancer could draw inspiration from Sebastian Munoz and Joaquin Niemann after their recent wins. Last week, Munoz said Niemann's title at the Greenbrier provided the motivation he needed to win the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Mindset aside, Ancer's game fits Silverado. He's among the best drivers of the ball on Tour, ranking inside the top 10 last season in both strokes gained: off-the-tee and driving accuracy.

He's also contended at marquee events, recently finishing as the runner-up at The Northern Trust during the FedEx Cup playoffs. Ancer is a steal at 50-1.

Harris English (70-1)

English has turned his Korn Ferry Tour finals form into back-to-back impressive results on the PGA Tour.

He finished T-3 at the Greenbrier and gained 8.9 strokes tee-to-green last week to finish T-6 at the Sanderson Farms. The two-time Tour winner is driving the ball brilliantly, and he should earn plenty of chances to rack up birdies this week.

Even if he was listed at 50-1, English would still be worth a selection.