The PGA Tour heads to TPC Twin Cities for the first-ever 3M Open - the second consecutive tournament debut on the schedule.
Like last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic, there is no event history to help identify players who may perform well at the Minneapolis venue. While the course did host a Champions Tour tournament from 1993 to 2018, it will play much different as a 7,468-yard par 71 with PGA Tour pros hitting it much further than their senior counterparts.
TPC Twin Cities was designed by the late Arnold Palmer, who, aside from being one of the greatest golfers ever, was also the architect of Bay Hill, which hosts a Tour stop every year. Looking for players with success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational is a good place to start when making selections for the 3M Open.
Though TPC Twin Cities is located hundreds of miles from Florida, it strikes a shocking resemblance to a lot of courses in the Sunshine State due to its 27 water hazards. PGA National, home of the Honda Classic, shares this characteristic with TPC Twin Cities.
Here's a look:
Focusing on players who are in good form as well as having solid course history at the tracks noted above, let's break down the betting board for the 3M Open.
Brooks Koepka once again tops a non-major field at 7-1. At the Travelers Championship two weeks ago, when he was also the heavy favorite, the four-time major winner admitted he was "fried" and caught himself yawning on the course. Would one week off reboot his system? Unlikely. Plus, his number is way too short given he hasn't cracked the top 50 in his last two events outside of the U.S. Open.
Hideki Matsuyama (10-1), Jason Day (11-1) and Bryson DeChambeau (14-1) round out the remaining sub-20 favorites. A strong case could be made for all three to win the 3M Open since they're playing well and have found success at Bay Hill over the years.
DeChambeau provides the best value of the quartet. He's a proven winner on Tour and is trending toward a win. After a solid week of ball-striking and putting at the U.S. Open, he backed that result up with a T-8 at the Travelers and gained strokes in all categories.
Patrick Reed's game has turned a corner over the past few tournaments. He gained 6.3 strokes through approach shots last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which tied for the second-best performance of his career. Reed is listed at 22-1 and worthy of consideration at the 3M Open.
Included in the group of second-tier players are a trio of young stars. Viktor Hovland (28-1), Joaquin Niemann (33-1), and Sungjae Im (40-1) are capable of claiming their first PGA Tour titles this week. Hovland is coming off a T-13 in Detroit in only his second start as a pro; Niemann enters with back-to-back top-five showings; Im finished T-7 last week and came T-3 at Bay Hill earlier this season.
Also priced with the group of early 20-year-olds is Tony Finau (28-1). While his game isn't in peak form, history suggests his number doesn't match his talent level despite only having one PGA Tour win.
It's worth noting that Phil Mickelson (40-1) is also in the field, but his game is a mess right now. He's tough to consider at anything better than 50-1.
Luke List (80-1), Keith Mitchell (80-1), and Sung Kang (80-1) finished inside the top 10 at the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational and, aside from List, won this year on Tour. Mitchell claimed the Honda Classic at PGA National, a course also covered in water.
Mackenzie Hughes and Sepp Straka appear to be value plays at 90-1. Hughes has made four straight cuts with three top-21 results. Straka has gained strokes tee-to-green in seven consecutive events and finished T-11 last week.
Wyndham Clark (100-1) came T-7 at this year's Honda Classic and enters the 3M Open with consecutive top-17 performances.
Bryson DeChambeau (14-1)
DeChambeau is a winner, especially in July onward. Four of his five PGA Tour titles have come in the second half of the calendar year. The 25-year-old's game is trending toward a victory. He's coming off a T-8 result at the Travelers where he gained strokes in all facets of the game.
Rarely is it advised to back a golfer near the top of the board, but this week feels different. The 3M Open boasts a weak field, and DeChambeau appears poised to steamroll the competition.
Sungjae Im (40-1)
There is nothing to suggest that Hovland or Niemann should be listed with lower odds than Im. He's equally as talented, if not more, and has a longer track record of solid results this season. His T-3 finish a the Arnold Palmer Invitational is telling, especially when you factor in how much stronger that field was compared to the one set to contest the 3M Open.
Keith Mitchell (80-1)
Based purely on courses that TPC Twin Cities should resemble, Mitchell is a steal at 80-1. He won the Honda Classic at PGA National and finished T-6 at Bay Hill, which are both courses littered with water hazards. Even though his recent results aren't outstanding, he's still elite off-the-tee and is showing signs of turning his iron play around.
(Odds courtesy: Bodog)