PGA picks: Johnson to continue stunning play at John Deere Classic
The Open Championship sits just a week away at Carnoustie, which means one of the weakest fields of the year is upon us at the John Deere Classic back in the United States.
Francesco Molinari represents the only player in the field currently listed in the world golf rankings' top 20, and defending champion Bryson DeChambeau is the top-ranked American at No. 22.
There's not much value among the top names on the board, so this is probably a good week to look for a potential long-shot winner.
Favorite to watch (odds shorter than 25-1)
Zach Johnson
The John Deere Classic might as well be called the Zach Johnson Invitational because the veteran has been an absolute force over the years at this event. Johnson won the event in 2012 and is 9-for-9 on cuts made since 2009. That includes three second- and two third-place showings with a scoring average of a comically low 66.89. This course puts a premium on wedge play, and Johnson is among the best in the world in that area.
Odds to win: 12-1
Top-5 odds: 12-5
Second tier (odds 25-1 or longer)
Wesley Bryan
Wesley Bryan showed he's more than comfortable on the TPC Deere Run with a third-place showing last year, including a final-round 64. Any course that values wedges and putting will play right into Bryan's hands, as the 28-year-old is among the best on Tour in both areas. It's not just the familiar layout that will make Bryan a strong pick, as he comes in with five straight made cuts and is enjoying his best stretch of play this season.
Odds to win: 40-1
Top-5 odds: 7-1
Long shot (odds 50-1 or longer)
Patrick Rodgers
Patrick Rodgers was poised to nab his first PGA Tour win last season at the John Deere Classic, but a final-round 70 saw him fall by one shot after DeChambeau's scorching 65 to close. It's been a mixed bag of results for Rodgers as of late, making four of his last five cuts but only posting one finish inside the top 25. The familiar TPC Deere Run layout should be a welcomed sight for the 26-year-old as he looks to finally grab win No. 1.
Odds to win: 60-1
Top-5 odds: 10-1
Super long shot (odds 80-1 or longer)
Bill Haas
In a weak field void of many PGA Tour winners, getting Bill Haas at 100-1 is an incredible value pick. The 36-year-old hasn't shown the best form of late, but the fact he's playing this week means he thinks he can score well on this track. Haas hasn't played this event since 2009, but with many top names skipping, the opportunity for FedEx Cup points is huge. Look for Haas to get dialed in with the wedge and make a run this weekend.
Odds to win: 100-1
Top-5 odds: 16-1
Hit this bet, buy a car (odds 125-1 or longer)
Daniel Summerhays
Daniel Summerhays enters play this week having missed five consecutive cuts, but has shown in the past that his game plays very well around TPC Deere Run. The veteran pro has made four of his last five cuts at the John Deere Classic, with all four finishes coming in the top 15. That includes last season where he shot 66 and 67 in the final two rounds to sit tied for 12th. If you're looking for a super long shot this week, Summerhays at 200-1 is as good as it gets.
Odds to win: 200-1
Top-5 odds: 33-1
Last event's results
Phil Mickelson: T-65
Brian Harman: T-56
Aaron Wise: MC
Keith Mitchell: T-30
Trey Mullinax: T-56
Season record (26 events)
Wins: 7 (Paul Casey 25-1, Bubba Watson 50-1, Dustin Johnson 15-2, Jon Rahm 8-1, Billy Horschel/Scott Piercy 40-1, Bubba Watson 28-1, Francesco Molinari 22-1)
Top 5: 14
(Odds courtesy: Bodog)
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)