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Debate: What can we expect from Tiger this week?

Christian Petersen / Getty Images Sport / Getty

With Tiger Woods finally ready to return to competitive golf Thursday at the Hero World Challenge, theScore's Adam Sarson, Dane Belbeck, and Mike deCourcy weigh in on the 14-time major champion's comeback attempt.

Why should Tiger fans be hopeful?

Sarson: If we're being honest, Tiger fans don't need additional reasons to be hopeful about the comeback, as they're just thrilled he's back on the course at all. There's nothing you can tell a Tiger fan that will sway them toward being negative about the comeback attempt, but in terms of why golf fans in general should be excited, it would probably be due to the comments from other top players. Guys like Rickie Fowler and Jason Day have been pretty bullish about what they've seen from Woods so far, and while that isn't anything new with comeback attempts, it's better to hear those comments than nothing. I've always believed that the last time we saw Tiger at full health was in 2013, and he won five times that year. If he's actually healthy for a sustained period of time, there's a chance this latest comeback can actually be an effective one, but it's hard to be incredibly optimistic on the health front.

Belbeck: As fun as it is to picture the "Call of Duty" binges that Woods has become famous for during his lengthy rehab, the images of the legend back on the course should be enough to make any Tiger fan hopeful. The fact that golfers such as Davis Love III had fusion surgery and returned to be successful is certainly a positive, too. Even pundits like Brandel Chamblee, who's been as hard on Woods as anybody, have admitted in recent days that Tiger's new swing looks solid.

deCourcy: Once bitten, twice shy. We've been down this road before with Tiger just last year, so it's understandable if fans are skeptical. Woods' swing was very tentative at Torrey Pines and Dubai early in the season, clearly showing signs his back wasn't in great shape. The 41-year-old now looks to be swinging the club freely, while drawing praise from analysts and coaches. The last year Tiger was truly healthy was in 2013, and he was voted PGA Tour Player of the Year.

What can we realistically expect this week?

Sarson: Given that the last time we saw Woods play a competitive round was back in February in Dubai before he withdrew the next day, it's really hard to know. Assuming he actually plays four rounds at Albany this week, the realistic expectation should be something similar to what we saw in this event last season; he led the tournament in birdies, but also in double-bogeys while finishing 15th in the 17-man field. Basically, you should expect a ton of fireworks - both positive and negative - and for Tiger to finish roughly a dozen shots back of the eventual winning total.

Belbeck: How about four straight course records en route to a runaway victory that immediately makes him the favorite for all four majors in 2018. I mean, that'd be awesome, right? Albany isn't exactly Merion at the U.S. Open, so expect a boatload of birdies for Woods. There are also going to be a fair amount of bogeys, but he'll do enough to beat at least five guys this week.

deCourcy: Early in his career, it wouldn't have been foolish to predict a win, but that was before the injuries and surgeries piled up. It's difficult for any golfer to return to competitive form after a long layoff, so it's sensible to predict a "Jekyll and Hyde" performance this week. He'll throw a number of circles on the scorecard, but there will be some squares, too.

What would be considered a good result after 300 days away from competitive golf?

Sarson: There are two things that should truly matter for Tiger this week. The first is that he gets through all four rounds without hurting himself, and while that may seem like an incredibly low bar, remember that he's been utterly incapable of doing so for nearly five years. The 2016 winner of this tournament, Hideki Matsuyama, has played in 23 events since that victory. Meanwhile, Tiger's last 23 starts take him all the way back to the 2013 BMW Championship, so completing four rounds without pain is important.

The second thing is that he doesn't embarrass himself. Since that 2013 season, it's been pretty clear that Tiger hasn't been healthy, and while we don't know how much blame to assign to health, he's been hard to watch at times on the course. We've seen him blow drives left and right, flub shots from perfectly clean lies, and appear to battle the yips around the greens. A performance like last year - with plenty of rust factored in - would be just fine, but if he's struggling to do the basics expected of a tour pro, it would be awful

Belbeck: Tiger has never shown up for a golf tournament expecting anything but a victory, so that's likely what he expects heading into this week. But while Woods contending would be awesome and send golf Twitter into a frenzy, just making it through the four days healthy and with a smile on his face would be considered a huge win. During his last comeback, Woods labored throughout virtually every round and looked like he'd rather be anywhere but on the course. He's preached about how much fun he's having in this latest comeback, so that would be great to see this week. It also wouldn't hurt to finish with a longer driving distance for the tournament than Dustin Johnson.

deCourcy: Going the entire week without any signs of a back problem, a few flashes of brilliance - at least one low round - and a solid short game would be a positive return. A big part of Tiger's struggles has been the short game, especially with the putter. When he used to miss putts - like in 2000 - the ball would run a few feet by the hole, knowing he'd make the one coming back. In recent years, however, the ball has either been dripping into the hole or running just a few inches by - a trademark displayed by those uncomfortable on the greens, like Sergio Garcia.

Where should Woods start his 2018 PGA Tour season?

Sarson: My biggest fear is that Tiger is going to fall back into old patterns, which means his 2018 season would likely start at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Tiger has won more tournaments at Torrey than most players will finish their entire careers with, so he's very comfortable there, but it's hard to see how his game now matches up with the length of that course and the thick rough that's sure to catch his ball when he goes sideways. If you're looking for an easier landing spot early in the schedule, the answer is probably either the Waste Management Phoenix Open or the Sony Open. Neither course is super long, and would allow him to play strategically, but I'd be shocked if he started anywhere but Torrey, unfortunately.

Belbeck: Tiger's been fairly predictable on this front, and if that holds to form, he's probably going to start at the difficult Torrey Pines. However, the best venue for his return would undoubtedly be the Waste Management Phoenix Open, where he made one of the greatest shots of his career. Forever the showman, Woods has always fed off the crowd, and there's none rowdier than the one in Phoenix.

deCourcy: Last year it was Torrey Pines, which is a brutally difficult course even for polished players. Instead, Woods should try to revamp his schedule to ease his way back into competition and play more forgiving layouts. The CareerBuilder in Palm Springs would be ideal because the scores are generally low, and stringing together a few good rounds would be beneficial for the 1,199th-ranked golfer. Even baseball stars rehab in Double-A or Triple-A before returning to their MLB clubs.

Prediction:

Sarson: Pretty much the exact same as we saw last year: lots of birdies and bogeys, leading to a score of 5-under par.

Belbeck: He either puts a 2000 U.S. Open-style beatdown on the field and runs away with a 15-shot win, or makes a ton of birdies and finishes 10th. Either way, I'll be glued to the television.

deCourcy: Slightly better than last year. He'll produce one really low round, but will finish well back of the leaders, likely around 7- or 8-under par for the week.

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