Panthers captain Willie Mitchell thinks advanced stats are a fad
Florida Panthers captain Willie Mitchell has been around the NHL long enough to see a variety of fads come and go, and in his opinion, hockey's recent embrace of analytics is likely to prove a fleeting fixation.
"Just because x,y,z does stats for this team they're too subjective,'' Mitchell told Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinel when asked about hockey's so-called advanced statistics. "In baseball you can quantify the strike zone but in hockey every play is constantly evolving and no play is the same.
"I don't put a lot of stock into it. It's the buzz item right now but I think it's going to come and go.''
Based on his unique perspective, Mitchell's spare thoughts on the nature of NHL fads is worth considering. It's also worth noting that the 39-year-old defenseman is something of a statistical outlier, in that Mitchell is the rare no-offense defender who has legitimately remained effective as a two-way force in the NHL into his late-30s.
It's also ironic that the underlying numbers, which Mitchell believes are a fad, likely do a better job of capturing his real value and contributions over the past seven years than the boxscores or his public reputation do.
The data, for example, would suggest that from 2007 through to 2012 Mitchell always faced the toughest matchups among blue-liners and started the highest proportion of his shifts in the defensive zone. He generally fared very well by the shot-based metrics despite battling through consistently tough circumstances.
One final data-based note: Mitchell arguably has a unique skill for disrupting the cycle and clearing loose pucks with his oft-commented-on long reach. Based on the Panthers' captain's persistent high on-ice save percentage, it's possible that he's among a very rare group of players (that really only includes him and Boston Bruins defender Zdeno Chara) who have a persistent impact on even-strength save percentage.
Mitchell may not care for hockey's new obsession with statistics, but if you're an NHL general manager looking to identify the next long-tenured shutdown defenseman - the data is likely to prove helpful.