Ranking NHL teams by tiers: The bottom 16
This is Part 1 of a two-part series ranking all 32 NHL teams by tiers for the 2025-26 season.
Keep in mind: This exercise rolls out a few weeks before training camps open, and tiers are based on personal projections for only the coming season, not each franchise's long-term trajectory. Tier 8 teams are furthest away from winning the 2026 Stanley Cup, while Tier 1 teams are closest. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.
Tier 8: Worst of the worst
In league of their own - and not in good way
Chicago Blackhawks
When I look at Chicago's roster, I see a forward group with a single top-line forward in Connor Bedard, a promising yet very green back end led by Alex Vlasic, and an unproven goalie brimming with potential in Spencer Knight.
In other words, I see a team headed straight for the Central Division's basement for the fourth straight year - and thus favorable draft lottery odds.
Blackhawks fans will still be hooked on the on-ice product. Top storylines include Bedard's goal output (only 23 in 82 games last year as a sophomore), center Frank Nazar's development (the recently extended 21-year-old attended the United States' Olympic summer camp), and coach Jeff Blashill's impact.
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks finished 2023-24 with the worst goal differential in the salary cap era: a putrid minus-150 over a miserable 19-win season. Last year, the rebuilding club improved ever so slightly to a minus-105 differential and 20 wins.
Expect much of the same this coming season - a tiny step in the right direction for a young core that's years away from contending for a playoff spot.
San Jose drafted Will Smith (fourth overall in 2023), Macklin Celebrini (first in 2024), and Michael Misa (second in 2025) in the past three years. The front office has once again set itself up for a top-five pick. Gavin McKenna, future Shark?
Tier 7: Heavy roster construction
Walkover most nights, potential standings free fall
New York Islanders
The Islanders are in an interesting spot.
They selected franchise cornerstone Matthew Schaefer first overall in June after unexpectedly winning the draft lottery. Their top decision-maker, Mathieu Darche, is a first-time GM tasked with performing major surgery on a middling roster. He has runway, and the hefty return for Noah Dobson was a nice start.
The challenge is in choosing an appropriate path. Darche could strip the roster down to the studs by trading the likes of Bo Horvat and Mat Barzal, or opt for a less drastic rebuild, or retool to remain semi-competitive every year.
No matter the choice, New York won't be winning many games in 2025-26.
Pittsburgh Penguins
There's a decent chance the Penguins end up with the NHL's worst record. Yet here they are in Tier 7 instead of Tier 8 for two reasons.
One, it's difficult to project the kind of drop-off we'll see from 38-year-old Sidney Crosby, 39-year-old Evgeni Malkin, and 39-year-old Kris Letang. (In Crosby's case, maybe none at all?) Two, it's hard to predict how active GM Kyle Dubas will be on the trade market, with Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell headlining a group of veteran contributors attached to digestible contracts.
As much as the hockey world would like to see Crosby chase another Cup, he'd have to slip on another jersey first. The Penguins are not a playoff team.
Tier 6: Notch below playoffs
2025-26 won't be a banner season, for various reasons
Boston Bruins
On one hand, Boston has an elite player at three positions - winger David Pastrnak, blue-liner Charlie McAvoy, goalie Jeremy Swayman.
On the other hand, the Bruins have arguably the NHL's worst collection of centers (1C Elias Lindholm and 2C Casey Mittelstadt), no wingers of note beyond Morgan Geekie, and a talent cliff on defense after Hampus Lindholm.
Squint hard enough and you can see GM Don Sweeney's grand vision of rebuilding around those three late-20s stars. In the short term, this squad is, at best, mediocre. The Bruins will struggle mightily to score goals.
Buffalo Sabres
I originally placed the Sabres in Tier 5, moved them back to Tier 6, U-turned to 5 again, and finally settled on 6. The flip-flopping was a product of liking but not loving the roster while debating the strength of the Eastern Conference.
It'd be fantastic if Buffalo rewarded its tortured fan base by snapping a league-record drought of 14 seasons. I believe in a lot of their players (Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin are both criminally underrated) and, to some degree, coach Lindy Ruff. However, there are only eight playoff spots in each conference, and on paper, the Sabres are in the 9-12 range in the messy East.
Part of that projection is based on the Dylan Cozens and JJ Peterka trades aging poorly. Peterka in particular will pop off in his new home, Utah.
Calgary Flames
The Flames are one of the toughest teams to get a firm handle on.
Last season, they surprised a lot of people, including me, by collecting 96 points and narrowly missing the playoffs. Dustin Wolf, who finished second in Calder Trophy voting, is a certified stud between the pipes. Core forwards Connor Zary, Matt Coronato, and Joel Farabee are still developing. Coach Ryan Huska's lineup card is filled with competent, high-intensity players.
What Calgary's sorely missing is a superstar (or two). Maybe dazzling 19-year-old blue-liner Zayne Parekh blossoms into one. But the club would be better off in the long run if it chased draft lottery odds over a playoff spot in 2025-26.
Nashville Predators
The big question for the Predators: Was last year's 30-win showing a one-off train wreck, or actual proof GM Barry Trotz swung for the fences and struck out?
In July 2024, Trotz bet on pedigree and veteran savvy when he handed high-profile free agents Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei a combined $108.5 million. The first season of the multi-year experiment yielded underwhelming stats, eyebrow-raising soundbites, and endless frustration.
It wouldn't be a massive shock if the Preds bounce back and enjoy a 40-win season. That said, we can't gloss over the fact that all of the club's difference-makers are 30 or older - from the 2024 signees to Ryan O'Reilly, Juuse Saros, Roman Josi, and Filip Forsberg. Older players typically decline, not level up.
Translation: Things could get worse before they get better in Nashville.
Philadelphia Flyers
I liked the Rick Tocchet coaching hire. I liked the Trevor Zegras acquisition a lot. I think Matvei Michkov is going to have a monster sophomore season.
But I simply can't take the Flyers seriously until they figure out their goaltending. Samuel Ersson (45 starts), Ivan Fedotov (24), and Aleksei Kolosov (13) combined for a .872 save percentage in 2024-25. That was the lowest SV% of the cap era, and the painful display wasn't a fluke: Philadelphia has finished 32nd out of 32 teams in save percentage in three of the past five seasons.
The 2025-26 tandem will be Ersson and free-agent signee Dan Vladar. It's a minor upgrade (Vladar is fairly dependable) but far from a satisfying solution.
Seattle Kraken
Seattle lands in Tier 6 because of the many what-ifs circling its playoff case.
What if youngsters Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, and Kaapo Kakko all make enormous developmental leaps? What if second-line center Chandler Stephenson lives up to his inefficient contract? What if starter Joey Daccord plays at a Vezina Trophy-caliber level? What if new coach Lane Lambert squeezes every bit of value out of a decidedly mid roster?
Fat chance all, or even most of, these what-ifs hit for the Kraken.
Pending free agents Jaden Schwartz, Mason Marchment, Eeli Tolvanen, Jordan Eberle, and Jamie Oleksiak give GM Jason Botterill trade ammunition.
Tier 5: Standings purgatory
Legitimate shot at playoff spot, if stars align
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim, last a playoff team when Randy Carlyle was behind the bench in 2018, is starting to turn a corner. The top six up front, top four on the blue line, and No. 1 goalie spots have solidified following years of uncertainty. Plus, Joel Quenneville will be a significant upgrade on Greg Cronin at coach.
The Ducks leaped from 59 points in 2023-24 to 80 last season. They should tack on 10 or so points this season thanks mainly to internal growth. (Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, and Lukas Dostal are all 25 years old or younger.) I don't see a very high ceiling for this club, though - maybe 95 points. Will that be enough?
It's a complete toss-up if Anaheim makes the playoffs.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus is basically the Anaheim of the Eastern Conference. The Blue Jackets have inched closer to becoming legitimately competitive every passing offseason and can now finally ice a lineup capable of ending a lengthy playoff drought.
The Blue Jackets' path to the postseason is murkier than the Ducks', however. For starters, if the Rangers return to form, the Metropolitan Division will have four playoff-worthy clubs (Hurricanes, Devils, Capitals, Rangers) battling for three spots. Also, the super-deep Atlantic could gobble up both East wild cards.
These dynamics put pressure on Columbus to tack 7-10 points onto last season's 89-point output. The team has enough emergent talent - namely Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, and Kirill Marchenko - to pull it off.
Detroit Red Wings
This is a massive season for the Red Wings, who haven't competed in a playoff game since 2016. Fans have grown impatient with GM Steve Yzerman.
It's true, the so-called Yzerplan has involved a long list of questionable transactions, especially over the past few years. But June's acquisition of John Gibson from Anaheim was a win. A Gibson-Cam Talbot tandem should make goaltending a tangible strength for a club that's banking on sizable jumps from early-20s skaters like Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, Marco Kasper, and Simon Edvinsson in order to snatch one of the East wild cards.
Todd McLellan, who's entering his first full season in Detroit, is a solid coach. Bonus: Yzerman has $12 million in cap space to spend on reinforcements.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild have made the postseason in 11 of the past 13 years. After more or less running it back, they'll challenge again for a playoff spot in 2025-26.
Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Brock Faber provide the star power and the likes of Ryan Hartman, Marcus Foligno, and Jared Spurgeon check off the reliable-veteran box. What's missing from coach John Hynes' lineup card is a high-impact second tier. The likes of Joel Eriksson Ek, Filip Gustavsson, Mats Zuccarello, Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium, and Jacob Middleton need to level up.
If that second tier can't provide surplus value, the Wild are easy first-round fodder - or worse, one Kaprizov injury from missing the playoffs.
Ottawa Senators
Canada's capital city is optimistic about its hockey team - and rightfully so. The Senators took a massive step forward in 2024-25 and, despite not making any big splashes this summer, boast an extremely well-balanced roster.
Ottawa has a nice mix of snipers, passers, and worker bees in a forward group that needs to finish its chances more often, having scored the second-fewest five-on-five goals last season. The blue line has a ton of potential with pairings of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen, and Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence. Linus Ullmark is a top-10 NHL goalie.
The Sens are slightly ahead of the Wings in the Atlantic Division pecking order.
Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver's best forward, Elias Pettersson, has been a shell of his former self since signing an eight-year, $92.8-million contract extension. A season-plus in, he's closer to you-are-what-you-are territory than bounce-back candidate.
The forward group, in general, leaves something to be desired. (Filip Chytil, a perfectly respectable third-line center, will line up behind Pettersson in the 2C slot - not ideal!) Meanwhile, it's difficult to predict starting goalie Thatcher Demko's performance given his poor injury luck in recent years.
Vegas, Edmonton, and Los Angeles are the top teams in the Pacific Division. Vancouver, led by superstar defenseman Quinn Hughes, will battle Anaheim and a few Central teams (St. Louis, Utah, Minnesota) for a wild card spot.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter/X (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).