Stanley Cup storylines: 1 pivotal question for every 2nd-round team
The New Jersey Devils prevailed in Game 7 on Monday night to become the eighth and final team to win a first-round playoff series. These questions, one per Stanley Cup contender, will shape what happens in Round 2 once the puck drops Tuesday.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Can 'The Factor' be an X-factor?
Ryan "The Factor" O'Reilly was brought in at the trade deadline to add another weapon to the Maple Leafs' center position, help shut down opposing top lines, and assume the daily been-there-done-that role within the dressing room.
O'Reilly's importance to Toronto's success will rise as the postseason progresses, and Leaf fans hope the right O'Reilly shows up to start Round 2.
The 32-year-old was an X-factor to start the first round. He triggered a mini-comeback in Game 1. He scored the game-tying goal with a minute left in regulation, then won an offensive-zone faceoff to earn the primary assist on the overtime marker in Game 3. He forced a turnover ahead of the opening goal, then won the O-zone faceoff before the tying goal in Game 4.
O'Reilly was far less impactful to close out the series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. He went pointless in the final three games and posted brutal underlying numbers, including an 11.7% expected goals rate at five-on-five in Game 5. He generated zero offense and lost 11 of 13 draws in Game 6.
While there's a chance O'Reilly continues to sputter, the smart money's on O'Reilly bouncing back. This is a Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup winner who seemingly never gets rattled. When he's on his game, he does just about everything right when he doesn't have the puck. He finds ways to contribute.
Florida Panthers
Can Florida stay out of the box?
The Panthers took the most minor penalties out of any team in the regular season and then tied the Devils for most minors in the first round with 32.
Facing a physical opponent in the Boston Bruins over the maximum number of games definitely skewed the numbers. Plus, it's hard to argue with the on-ice results, especially since some of the Panthers' top guys - Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, Brandon Montour - tend to perform best when physicality's ratcheted up. Case in point: Tkachuk paired 109 points (tied for sixth in the NHL) with 123 penalty minutes (tied for fourth) during the regular season.
Series win or not, averaging 4.6 minors a game is an unsustainable brand of hockey. It'll eventually come back to haunt them. It's fine if the Panthers' identity is soaked in battle-hardened grit, but controlling the sticks would go a long way; 20 of the 32 infractions were trips, slashes, cross-checks, hooks, and high sticks.
Boston capitalized on 11 of its 27 power-play opportunities for a killer 40.6% rate. Florida can't give Toronto's power play, which ranked second in the regular season and boasted a 28.6% rate in the first round, that many chances to heat up.
Carolina Hurricanes
Who'll generate offense?
The Hurricanes are the most predictable team in the playoffs - and possibly the entire NHL. They don't cut corners in the work-ethic department. They backcheck and forecheck like crazy. They control the game by funneling a ton of pucks on net from virtually any spot on the ice and by stopping the opposition from doing the same. And they do all of these things very well.
Even if all goes according to plan, though, the Hurricanes need to score goals.
Against the New York Islanders in Round 1, Carolina potted 2.67 goals per game, the third-lowest rate among the eight remaining playoff teams. They also sat seventh in "quality chances," according to Sportlogiq. (The metric counts only grade A and B scoring opportunities, filtering out grade Cs.)
The Canes addressed a lack of finishing talent in the offseason with the acquisition of six-time 30-goal scorer Max Pacioretty. But Pacioretty's been hurt all year, fellow sniper Andrei Svechnikov has been sidelined since March, and neither is expected back in the playoffs. Losing Teuvo Teravainen in the Isles series was another bit of bad luck; he's out indefinitely after undergoing hand surgery.
Indeed, the forward group has been decimated by injury. It wouldn't just be nice if offensive drivers Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Martin Necas received a helping hand from the likes of Stefan Noesen, Paul Stastny, Jesper Fast, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. They flat-out need goals from unlikely contributors.
New Jersey Devils
If Meier returns, can he end drought?
Timo Meier, the Devils' prized midseason acquisition, took a thunderous hit from Jacob Trouba in the third period of Monday's Game 7. He didn't play another shift but did return to the Devils' bench. Coach Lindy Ruff didn't have a postgame update on Meier's status, putting future availability in question.
If Meier isn't OK, New Jersey might be in trouble. If he's able to play, the Swiss forward can continue generating offense better than almost anyone in the postseason. Meier went nuts during five-on-five action in the first round, registering the most high-danger shot attempts (16), second-most total attempts (49) and expected goals (2.58), and third-most shots on goal (25).
You'll notice there's no mention of how many goals he scored. That's because somehow, after pumping multiple pucks at the net virtually every shift, Meier failed to slip a single puck past New York Rangers superstar goalie Igor Shesterkin. His goalless drought includes three regular-season games, too.
There's no doubt Meier's puck luck should turn sooner than later, particularly with the Hurricanes' goaltending tandem - Antti Raanta and Frederik Andersen - casting a smaller shadow in the crease. Will Meier even suit up, though?
Vegas Golden Knights
Can Stone pull a Kucherov?
Acting within NHL rules, Vegas skirted the salary cap by activating Mark Stone from long-term injured reserve the moment the playoffs started. Stone was a minus-3 in his first game back from back surgery, then burned the Winnipeg Jets for three goals and eight points over four ensuing victories.
He produced like Nikita Kucherov, whose return from hip surgery in the 2021 postseason notoriously enabled the Tampa Bay Lightning to play "$18 million over the cap." Kucherov's league-high 32 points in 23 playoff contests sparked the Lightning to a second straight championship. Playing without him all regular season, Tampa Bay had amassed the NHL's eighth-best record.
The Golden Knights won the Pacific Division and put up 111 points, a franchise record, even though Stone was shelved from mid-January onward. He turbocharged Vegas' offense in Round 1. Beyond assisting on all four of linemate Chandler Stephenson's goals, Stone scored on a drive to the net and via multiple snipes from the high slot.
Availability is paramount at this time of year. Stone delivered against the Jets by skating for 20 minutes a night across all situations. Vegas outscored Winnipeg 8-1 in his five-on-five shifts from Game 2 onward, per Natural Stat Trick. Will he dominate a stronger Canadian opponent?
Edmonton Oilers
Can this power play be contained?
Edmonton's historically successful power play scored on 32.4% of its regular-season attempts. The Oilers made that proportion look paltry against the Los Angeles Kings. They scored on nine of 16 opportunities to capitalize at a whopping 56.3% rate.
The main quintet of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evan Bouchard produced eight of the goals. Bouchard picked up points on each tally by crushing shots from the blue line - one ricocheted in off of Hyman's chin - or deferring to the superstars on either side of him. McDavid's seam passes to the right flank teed up Draisaitl for one-timers, and the Edmonton captain scored twice himself from the left faceoff dot.
This will be a key battleground in Round 2. The Oilers didn't get many whistles against the Kings, drawing the second-fewest penalties per 60 minutes among Round 1 squads. The Golden Knights limited the Jets to 12 power-play tries, yet let in five goals in that phase. The shooting gallery will open whenever Vegas visits the box.
Dallas Stars
Is Hintz a budding Conn Smythe candidate?
Overshadowed by 109-point linemate Jason Robertson this season, Roope Hintz broke out in Round 1 by menacing the Minnesota Wild in every situation.
Hintz's eight points on special teams - he recorded seven on the power play and bagged a shorthanded breakaway goal - tie him with Bouchard for the postseason lead. At five-on-five, the Stars outscored the Wild 4-2 in Hintz's minutes and trailed 7-5 on aggregate when he sat. Hintz and Robertson clicked instantly with Tyler Seguin after Joe Pavelski's concussion midway through Game 1 forced head coach Peter DeBoer to shuffle his forward lines.
Hintz was Dallas' seventh-leading playoff scorer when the club rocketed to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final. Now he's an offensive linchpin. A speedster at 6-foot-3, Hintz leveled up as a shooter in the past couple of years, ranking 18th league-wide in goals (74) since the start of 2021-22. He'll now be expected to elevate the Stars - with or without Pavelski by his side.
Seattle Kraken
Will Grubauer keep shining?
Masterful starts from Philipp Grubauer, the former Colorado Avalanche netminder, bookended the Kraken's seven-game victory over the reigning Cup champs.
Grubauer stopped 34 of 35 shots in the Seattle-Colorado opener, then denied 33 of 34 on the road Sunday to seal the mammoth upset. He held the fort as the Kraken scored first in all seven contests. The 2004 Maple Leafs were the only team that had done that in postseason history.
Goaltending was one of Seattle's weaknesses this season, though Grubauer was markedly better than partner Martin Jones. His .895 save percentage didn’t impress, but Grubauer was passable relative to shot quality, saving 4.94 goals above expected as tracked by Evolving Hockey. His first-round stats - .926 save rate, 3.76 GSAx - ranked near the top of the league.
Dependable in the playoffs, Grubauer has maintained a .922 save percentage over 36 starts since 2019. Dallas wunderkind Jake Oettinger (.944 save percentage over 13 career starts) has the next-most playoff experience in the Western Conference bracket. The Kraken ranked second behind Toronto in Round 1 in blocked shots per 60 minutes, suggesting they'll commit to helping Grubauer win this goalie duel.