Maple Leafs-Lightning series preview: Betting by the numbers
Beyond the natural intrigue of two Stanley Cup contenders meeting in the first round, this series provides an even more interesting circumstance for bettors - a collision between arguably the two most popular teams to bet on by the public.
The Lightning bring a pair of Stanley Cups to the party, and you know bettors like to wager on what they’ve seen most recently; the Leafs bring the logo and a diehard fan base oddsmakers know will show up to back their team - even if they never win in the playoffs during the most modern of eras (post-2004 lockout).
It’s almost impossible to find value on either team, so what happens when they face off? The answer in this case is as close to a pick’em series as you can find. Toronto has home-ice advantage; Tampa has the clear edge between the pipes with Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The Lightning don't have the same depth that they've had during their streak of playoff series wins, but they come in as healthy as could be expected. The Leafs managed Auston Matthews' bumps and bruises down the stretch, so the only injury issue is Petr Mrazek (-12.84 GSAx), and if you ask much of Leaf Nation, the bigger issue came when the first-year Leaf was in the crease.
Series odds
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | -130 | -120 | TOR -1.5 (+160) |
| Lightning | +110 | +100 | TBL +1.5 (-190) |
Projected prices
Hopefully you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season, and what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we're using even-strength-centric metrics like expected goals, high-danger chance rates, as well as high-danger conversion rates - both for and against - to try to predict who will play better in the postseason.
Due to the special circumstances of the season, which includes some tainted results from before the All-Star break when COVID-19 ravaged lineups, we're weighing the second half more than we normally would. Lastly, we'll make use of a formula to factor in home ice that includes each team's moneyline win percentage with the league average win probability differential.
True moneylines
The true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet.
The following is the expected price for each side when the games are played in Toronto (Game 1, 2, 5, and 7), and in Tampa Bay (Game 3, 4, and 6).
| MAPLE LEAFS | LIGHTNING | |
|---|---|---|
| True ML in Toronto | -149 | +149 |
| True ML In Tampa Bay | +144 | -144 |
| Series Price | -117 | +117 |
Price to bet
In the regular season, we'd need at least a 4% edge on an underdog and a 1% edge for the favorite. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario:
| GAME 1/2/5/7 | GAME 3/4/6 | SERIES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | -143 | +171 | -112 |
| Lightning | +177 | -139 | +145 |
I’ve got a relatively large moneyline swing depending on where the puck is dropped in this series. Toronto was 31-10 on the moneyline at home and 24-17 on the road. Tampa was much more evenly balanced in their splits, with a 27-14 home record, and 24-17 on the road. With a Game 1 moneyline at -130, I'd hop on the Leafs before that rises.
Derivative market
The following is the probability for each of the eight possible series results, along with a fair price for an exact result bet.
| Series result | Probability / Converted Odds |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs 4-0 | 6% / +1566 |
| Maple Leafs 4-1 | 15.2% / +558 |
| Maple Leafs 4-2 | 13.6% / +636 |
| Maple Leafs 4-3 | 19.1% / +423 |
| Lightning 4-0 | 5.6% / +1680 |
| Lightning 4-1 | 9.8% / +916 |
| Lightning 4-2 | 17.8% / +462 |
| Lightning 4-3 | 12.8% / +681 |
With the Leafs' dominant home record this season, the best chance for exact result betting is for Toronto to close out the series at home. Given the tight matchup, there’s value in this being a long series as well. My fair price expectation for the series to go over 5.5 games is -173.
Best bets
Normally, betting on Toronto requires paying a tax for brand name, but with both teams getting that credit in this matchup, you can actually get close to fair price with the Leafs in this series.
The reliance on Jack Campbell (-8.18 GSAx) is terrifying for Leafs’ backers, especially considering we know what you’re going to get from Tampa’s star netminder. This series has all the makings of a first-round classic, and the true advantage the Leafs have tapped this season will carry this to a Game 7. With a minus-price on Toronto expected for that game, sitting on a ticket worth +500 would provide ample opportunity. Even a ticket at -120 for the Leafs to win the series would have a little value as well.
Pick: Maple Leafs (-120 or better)
Maple Leafs win 4-3 (+500)
Over 5.5 total games (-170 or better)
Game 1: Maple Leafs (-140 or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.