Devils condemned to fall despite red-hot start to season
After losing only two games in October, the New Jersey Devils firmly placed themselves on the NHL's radar as a potential up-and-comer for the 2017-18 season.
Now midway through the second month of the campaign, the Devils have yet to fade, currently 11-4-2 with 24 points through 17 games. It's a point total good enough for second place in the Eastern Conference and tied for third overall.
After finishing dead last in the East last season, few, if anybody, predicted the Devils would be able to amount to very much this time around, even after winning the draft lottery and adding Nico Hischier to the fold.
Yet, there are the Devils, sitting atop a jumbled Metropolitan Division with a three-point advantage while holding one game at hand ahead of their nearest chasers. But how long can it last?
While the Devils' record may suggest they look like a surprise contender through the early portion of the season, the underlying numbers propping up New Jersey's success look poised to crater.
To illustrate why New Jersey is trending toward regression, have a look at some numbers from last season, when the Devils finished in 27th place.
| Category | League Rank |
|---|---|
| CF% | 47.83 (27th) |
| xGF% | 47.81 (26th) |
| Scoring Chances For | 1529 (30th) |
| High Danger Chances For | 592 (27th) |
| Sh% | 6.36 (28th) |
| Sv% | 0.924 (12th) |
| PDO | 98.93 (24th) |
And so far this season:
| Category | League Rank |
|---|---|
| CF% | 45.24 (30th) |
| xGF% | 47.31 (24th) |
| Scoring Chances For | 355 (20th) |
| High Danger Chances For | 137 (15th) |
| Sh% | 10.37 (2nd) |
| Sv% | .932 (4th) |
| PDO | 103.6 (1st) |
(All Stats at 5-on-5, courtesy Corsica, Natural Stat Trick)
(Photo Courtesy: Getty Images)
Looking at the numbers, two things stand out: Goaltender Cory Schneider is bouncing back from a difficult season a year ago, and Devils shooters are converting their chances regularly. However, New Jersey isn't generating enough of those chances for this trend to sustain itself.
Teams with similar shooting percentages to New Jersey this season - Toronto, Tampa Bay, Winnipeg, among others - all have elite shooting talent throughout their respective lineups, something the Devils lack. Taylor Hall is near his career average at 10.7 percent for the season, but nine other skaters on the roster are at or above that threshold so far, including Brian Gibbons (eight goals, 33.3 percent), Miles Wood (six goals, 17.3 percent), and rookie Jesper Bratt (five goals, 17.2 percent). That's not elite shooting talent, and it's not going to last.
On the defensive side of things, it doesn't get much better. In terms of shot suppression, New Jersey has given up the second-most attempts per 60 minutes (62.54), and more than half of those attempts get through to the goal, as the Devils rank 30th of 31 teams with 35.5 shots allowed per contest.
It seems every season, one particular team tends to overachieve, riding a high shooting percentage to unpredictable success. Sometimes - as in the case of the 2014 Colorado Avalanche - the wave can carry a team all the way to the playoffs. But in all cases like New Jersey is currently demonstrating, luck, eventually, runs out.
Given how Schneider has performed so far - a .922 save percentage through 12 starts - the Devils' unforeseen fortune may carry on a little longer, but labeling this unit as one that's much improved, or one destined to contend, appears to be an illusion.