3 reasons why the Red Wings' hot start is a mirage
The Detroit Red Wings are doing their best to dispel most preseason predictions, but there are several signs that the club's encouraging start is unsustainable.
Let's get the obligatory "it's early" disclaimer out of the way, because that's always a critical caveat when looking at standings or statistics through five games, or what amounts to six percent of the Red Wings' regular-season schedule.
It's not just the notion of typical early-season wackiness that should curb Detroit's enthusiasm over its 4-1-0 record.
Here are three other reasons why the Red Wings aren't likely to maintain the success they've enjoyed so far:
Their opponents
Detroit opened its season with an impressive win over the Minnesota Wild, a consistently competitive club many expect to challenge for the Central Division crown.
But then, they needed a shootout to beat the Ottawa Senators and lost to a Dallas Stars team that's still trying to gel, while their two other wins came against the Vegas Golden Knights - a terrific story, but another likely mirage - and the Arizona Coyotes.
The reality check will begin Monday night, when the Red Wings battle the Tampa Bay Lightning - a team many have pegged to win the Stanley Cup in the spring - followed by a road date with the dynamic Toronto Maple Leafs, and then a meeting with the explosive Washington Capitals on Friday.
How the Red Wings fare in those three contests will be telling, regardless of the remaining schedule.
The underlying numbers
On the surface, there's a lot to like about Detroit's first handful of games. The Red Wings boast the NHL's fourth-most effective penalty kill (91.3 percent), and the 11th-best power play (22.2). They're in the top 10 in goals per game (3.4) and rank seventh in goals allowed per contest (2.4).
But a closer look at more meaningful figures shows the club is not as good as it appears.
The Red Wings are 16th in Corsi For percentage at even strength (49.77), according to Corsica Hockey. That tells us that while their special teams play has been effective, they're being outplayed at even strength.
Detroit has a plus-6 goal differential through five games, a mark bested so far by only five clubs, but a team shooting percentage of 9.73 and a PDO of 101.9 (via FirstLineStats) indicate regression is likely coming.
Howard isn't this good, even if Mrazek isn't this bad
Again, we're dealing with an extremely small sample size here, but that doesn't mean we can't put things in context.
Jimmy Howard is 3-0-0 with a .955 save percentage in three games, which is above average in a limited time frame, but a quick glance at his career numbers and his age give reason to believe it's not sustainable.
The 33-year-old's career save percentage is .916, and while he posted a stellar .927 figure last season, that was in only 26 games. The .955 mark is bound to come down.
Petr Mrazek is better than the .898 save percentage he has through two appearances, but his career mark of .913 shows he's not better by much.