Predicting the top 4 free-agent bargains
While everyone is fixated on where big names in this year's free-agent class like Kevin Shattenkirk and Alexander Radulov will end up, the free-agency winners are usually the teams that sign the top bargains.
Jonathan Marchessault, Michael Grabner, and Radim Vrbata are three examples of players who signed for pennies last offseason and ended up being valuable assets to their respective teams.
The following four players likely won't cost much this offseason, but all four have a chance to be this class' biggest steal:
Patrick Sharp, forward
Sharp will turn 36 years old in December and is coming off his worst season in a decade. He'll likely receive a one-year "prove it" contract for around $2 million.
If he lands on a team with good centers and spots open on the wings (the Oilers come to mind), he could easily return to his 20-25-goal, 50-60-point form. His 2016-17 season was hampered by injuries, and the Stars' offensive catalysts, Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, had down years.
Furthermore, Sharp had some bad luck last season. His 5.5 shooting percentage was nearly half of his career rate of 10.8, and his team's shooting percentage at five-on-five while he was on the ice was also just 5.5, compared to his career mark of 9.1. He could be in line for a bounce-back season if the right team comes calling.
Jordan Weal, forward
Weal is being courted by a lot of teams for someone with just 37 games of NHL experience - an anomaly theScore broke down Tuesday. However, just because there's plenty of interest, it doesn't mean he'll be expensive.
Considering his lack of experience, it's hard to imagine Weal getting more than $3 million per season, and the 25-year-old could wind up outperforming his contract.
He scored eight goals and added four assists in 23 games with the Flyers last season, and his advanced stats were off the charts. He had an offensive zone start percentage of 61.1, a Corsi For percentage of 55.9, and 14 takeaways compared to just six giveaways.
Weal will likely go to a team offering him a top-six role, giving him 30-goal potential.
Michael Del Zotto, defenseman
Del Zotto is a former first-round pick, but he's had an up-and-down career. His first year in Philadelphia was impressive, but in the past two seasons he's been surpassed by younger defensemen (Shayne Gostisbehere, Ivan Provorov) in the pecking order.
There has, however, been one constant for Del Zotto: Whenever he's playing for a new contract, he flourishes. Have a look:
| Stat | Contract expiring | Under contract |
|---|---|---|
| GP | 259 | 225 |
| P/PG | 0.413 | 0.364 |
| S/PG | 1.59 | 1.41 |
| +/- | +1 | -27 |
Even though he's just 27, it's hard to imagine him getting more than a one-year deal given how he's played the past two seasons. He clearly needs that motivation to succeed.
If he's signed by a team that can give him top-four minutes with power-play time, he could easily rack up 40 points. The Penguins could use a puck-mover on the back end, and could be a potential destination.
Anders Nilsson, goaltender
Nilsson has been exclusively a backup in his career, but it might be time for the Swedish netminder to earn a role in a platoon.
The 6-foot-6 goaltender posted a .923 save percentage and a 2.67 goals-against average last season while playing for the Sabres, who were one of the worst defensive teams in hockey.
If the 27-year-old gets signed by a team with question marks in the crease, such as Philadelphia, Winnipeg, Vancouver, or Arizona, he could very well become a reliable starter.
(Advanced stats courtesy: Hockey Reference)
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)