Fantasy: 10 breakout candidates to target in 2025

More from this series:

• Busts to avoid (July 8)
• Sleepers to steal (July 10)
• Players we love (July 12)

With fantasy draft season underway, we dive in to identify breakout candidates at every position.

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Williams' rookie campaign didn't quite go as planned. The former No. 1 pick isn't totally blameless on that front, as he dealt with accuracy issues and had a tendency to invite pressure. But no first-year quarterback was going to succeed in the dumpster fire that was the 2024 Bears offense. Fortunately for Williams, the support system he'll have heading into Year 2 is a completely different story.

Ben Johnson's arrival as head coach was exciting enough as it is. The former Lions coordinator, long having established himself as one of the NFL's premier play designers, provides a staggering upgrade over Shane Waldron. But the Bears also did some impressive work with the roster. A trio of aggressive, early-offseason moves could see a disastrous interior offensive line suddenly become a strength, and rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden will join D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze to round out an exciting group of pass-catchers.

Williams was far and away the most talented passer in a stacked 2024 rookie QB class. That ability should begin to shine through in a big way with his offensive ecosystem having improved this dramatically. And while his 489 rushing yards were likely in part due to the pocket so consistently crumbling around him, the production in that regard speaks to the subtle, Patrick Mahomes-like skills he brings to the table in the scramble drill. Williams could be in for a monster sophomore season.

2025 projection: 4,300 passing yards, 31 TDs, 8 INTs
350 rushing yards, 2 TDs

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Maye wasn't given much of a chance as a rookie, either. A leaky offensive line put him in position to face pressure on 38.3% of dropbacks, tied with Williams for fifth among all qualified passers. Even in the midst of the constant chaos, though, it was easy to see that the Patriots might have themselves a star in the making.

The No. 3 overall pick has the arm talent to make any throw on the field, and his athleticism remains an incredibly underrated part of his game. Maye posted 421 rushing yards while starting just 12 games as a rookie, leading all quarterbacks with 7.8 yards per carry. For reference, Bo Nix (4.7 YPC) needed 38 more attempts to produce his 430 yards on the ground.

Like Williams, Maye will also benefit from a massive upgrade to his supporting cast. Investments in the offensive line and skill positions, along with the return of longtime Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels, should give the second-year quarterback the foundation he needs to turn his natural talents into big-time production in Year 2. And with New England in the early stages of Mike Vrabel's rebuild, it seems possible that he'll find himself in his fair share of stat-stuffing game scripts. Don't be surprised if Maye becomes a legitimate fantasy starter this season.

2025 projection: 4,150 passing yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs
550 rushing yards, 5 TDs

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jeanty's price tag will be a little rich for some. With an early ADP at 9th overall, according to FantasyPros, he's being selected ahead of other star running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and De'Von Achane. That's an expensive price to pay for a rookie. It's also easy to see why that's where he's coming off the board.

The Boise State product was my No. 1 running back and my No. 3 overall player in this draft class. With a truly unique combination of contact balance, vision, and creativity, he should immediately step in as one of the most talented backs in football. I didn't think NFL teams selecting in the top ten should get too uptight about position value in this particular case, and the Raiders agreed.

From a fantasy perspective, there's a lot to like about the opportunity Jeanty has in Las Vegas. New head coach Pete Carroll, having enjoyed an incredible run with Marshawn Lynch in Seattle, has an affinity for a smashmouth approach on offense. And while it remains to be seen whether a young Raiders offensive line can take a significant step forward this season, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's masterful run-game concepts should do plenty of the heavy lifting. Jeanty could be a superstar from Day 1.

2025 projection: 275 carries, 1,290 rushing yards, 12 TDs
45 receptions, 400 receiving yards, 3 TDs

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Johnson is the rare rookie running back who is probably being drafted later than he should be (ADP: 68). Frankly, I don't get it. While it's true that Mike Tomlin has a tendency to take things slow with young players, and Jaylen Warren is a reliable veteran who may well enter camp as the starter, it's only a matter of time before Johnson emerges as the lead back.

The Iowa product was my seventh-ranked running back in this year's NFL draft. That might seem low for a player I'm now trying to hype up, but fit was always going to be crucial for Johnson's prospects at the next level. Get him in an outside-zone scheme that allows him to play the way he did at Iowa, and he could produce big numbers right away.

Pittsburgh provides exactly that with Arthur Smith running the show on offense. It shouldn't take long for the Steelers to figure out that their ideal backfield rotation will involve Johnson as the top option in early-down and short-yardage situations, with Warren rotating in for pass-game duties. Split duties may cap the rookie's ceiling in some respects, but run-game potential alone could be enough for him to return true RB2 value out of the gate.

2025 projection: 230 carries, 1,035 rushing yards, 8 TDs
25 receptions, 200 receiving yards, 1 TDs

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐

The Vikings remain committed to Aaron Jones, having retained the veteran running back on a two-year, $20-million contract in free agency. But trading for Mason and giving him a not-insignificant contract of his own (two years, $10.5 million) should have your attention, too. The former 49ers back is going to have his share of opportunities.

Perhaps those will only come as a change of pace. But with Jones now on the wrong side of 30, and coming off a season in which he recorded a career-high 255 carries, it would be no surprise to see the Vikings make this more of a 50-50 split. Could that mean Mason ends up with the lion's share of the work between the tackles, keeping Jones fresh to do his thing on passing downs?

Even if that's not quite how it shakes out, Mason would appear to be the more logical fit for short-yardage duties. In a Vikings offense that could put up a ton of points, behind a much-improved offensive line, that role alone could return value for fantasy managers. And if Jones misses any significant time, Mason becomes a potential league-winner. Not a bad investment in the 10th round of fantasy drafts.

2025 projection: 155 carries, 750 rushing yards, 7 TDs
15 receptions, 105 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rice has legitimate superstar potential in the Chiefs offense. We saw signs of that ability as he earned a more significant role over the course of his rookie season. He was well on his way to taking the next step as a sophomore, ranking second among all receivers with 288 yards over the first three games before going down with a season-ending knee injury.

There's some level of risk involved here, as a seamless return from a major injury should never be assumed. But Rice's full participation in OTAs can only be taken as a positive sign heading into camp. And there's just so much to like about his fit in this offense.

Rice's ability to win short and over the middle of the field, consistently picking up yards after the catch, should make him the favorite to assume the commanding target share that has long been held by Travis Kelce. While the future Hall of Fame tight end is still hanging around, last year's struggles would appear to open the door for Rice to take over as a true No. 1 as soon as this year. A potential top-10 fantasy receiver with a fourth-round ADP? Sounds like a steal to me.

Unresolved legal issues continue to linger around Rice and push down his ADP, but all indications are that no NFL suspension is likely until the legal process plays out. And that probably won't happen until 2026 at the earliest.

2025 projection: 96 receptions, 1,150 receiving yards, 10 TDs

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Odunze, like Williams, is coming off a frustrating rookie season. Producing just 54 catches and 734 yards on 101 targets is not how you want to start your career as a receiver drafted in the top 10. He wears some of the blame for that, to be sure, as he certainly could have been better in some of the finer areas of the game. But it's also true that he probably would have been put in better positions to do so were his previous coaching staff not an unmitigated disaster.

A fresh start with a much-improved staff, along with all the other factors that have Williams in a position to thrive, should lead to a much more fruitful sophomore season for Odunze. And while DJ Moore lingers as the favorite to lead the team in targets, there's no reason this offense can't support multiple starting-caliber fantasy wideouts.

Odunze is an outstanding athlete with the ball skills to dominate at the catch point. This remains a true WR1 profile, and he'll have every opportunity to turn that into some major production this fall.

2025 projection: 80 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards, 8 TDs

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐

Downs is part of a fascinating receiver room. Michael Pittman is a steady presence at the top of the depth chart, Alec Pierce has quietly become one of the NFL's best field-stretchers, and Adonai Mitchell has the raw separation skills to become playmaker at the intermediate and deep levels of the field.

The battle for target share will only get more intense with first-round tight end Tyler Warren joining the fray, but there's plenty of reason to favor Downs above the rest. Ability-wise, he's the best route-runner of this group. Those skills were on full display during his sophomore season, where he overcame some horrific quarterback play to put up 72 catches for 803 yards and five touchdowns in 14 games.

Daniel Jones provides no guarantee of improved QB play as the presumed favorite to start, but he could still be a great fit for Downs. Lacking the ability to push the ball vertically with any sort of consistency, the former Giants signal-caller is right at home working the underneath areas of the field. As we saw with his affinity for Wan'Dale Robinson last year (80 targets in 10 games together), that can lead to a sizable workload for an ascending talent working primarily out of the slot. Downs could take off in Year 3.

2025 projection: 95 receptions, 1,090 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐

Pearsall missed the first six weeks of his rookie season due to a gunshot wound suffered in an attempted robbery in August. He didn't have a consistent role until the end of the regular season, but that small sample still provided plenty of reason for excitement looking to the future.

We saw glimpses of his first-round talent in an eight-catch, 141-yard effort against the Lions in Week 17. Pearsall's route-running skills and inside-out versatility were always going to make him an intriguing fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense, and now he'll have the opportunity to establish himself as a featured target.

Deebo Samuel's departure clears the way for Pearsall to operate as a top-three receiver in an offense that's always been able to support multiple fantasy-relevant players. And with Brandon Aiyuk still working his way back from last year's knee injury, making him a candidate to start the season on the PUP list, Pearsall could even open the year pushing Jauan Jennings for the lead role at the position. You could find far worse swings to take with an eighth-round pick.

2025 projection: 65 receptions, 900 receiving yards, 7 TDs

Breakout potential: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kincaid seemed destined for fantasy stardom when he landed with the Bills in the first round of the 2023 draft. It hasn't quite worked out that way thus far, but let's not panic just yet. It's still only been two seasons, and he was battling injuries for much of a disappointing sophomore campaign.

Underwhelming as the overall numbers may be, the Buffalo offense has made a point of getting Kincaid opportunities when he's on the field. He was second only to Stefon Diggs in targets per game in 2023 and trailed only Khalil Shakir in that regard in 2024. That trend should hold firm this season with the Bills having passed on making any major splashes at receiver.

Assuming he can stay healthy, then, it may not be long before Kincaid starts to deliver on the potential he had coming out of Utah. And if he can play his way into being a reliable playmaker for a quarterback like Josh Allen, there's a real opportunity for him to emerge as a rock-solid TE1.

2025 projection: 75 receptions, 785 receiving yards, 7 TDs

More from this series:

• Busts to avoid (July 8)
• Sleepers to steal (July 10)
• Players we love (July 12)

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