Can anyone challenge Jets, Steelers for AFC wild-card berths?
With seven weeks of the NFL season almost in the books, the playoff picture is beginning to form, and the AFC wild-card favorites appear to be the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Can any other AFC teams dislodge them from the wild-card berths?
Let's examine the best of the rest in the AFC wild-card race under the assumption that the four teams currently leading their divisions, the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, and Indianapolis Colts, will all win their respective divisions.
It's a fair assumption, all teams apart from the Colts have at least an 86 per cent chance of winning their divisions, according to FiveThirtyEight's NFL odds predictions. Even the struggling Colts have a 58 per cent chance of capturing the AFC South, and with no other team in the division looking capable of dethroning them, they are better set than their odds suggest.
The Jets played the Patriots close in Week 7, which isn't the result they wanted, but it's still indicative of how impressive this team has looked. The Steelers, after a disappointing loss should get Ben Roethlisberger back for next week's matchup against the Bengals and should return to be the offensively dominant team they appeared to be before he went down.
It's easy to cement these two teams in those wild-card spots, but are any other AFC teams capable of challenging them?
Miami Dolphins (3-3)
(at Patriots, at Bills, at Eagles, vs. Cowboys, at Jets, vs. Ravens, vs. Giants, at Chargers, vs. Colts, vs. Patriots)
This team has Dan Campbell fever. After playing the first four games in a Joe Philbin-induced stupor, this team ignited under Campbell, scoring 82 points in their last two games. It's playing with the ferocity and passion of its head coach, but is it sustainable?
They've dominated two teams with a combined record of 3-10 in the Titans and Texans. Up next is their first true test: the Patriots. Even a loss in a competitive game will be a positive sign for this team going forward.
Their two early divisional losses to the Bills and Jets could come back to haunt them. The Dolphins have the best chance at displacing one of the two current wild cards, but they have to win within their division to stand a chance.
Oakland Raiders (3-3)
(vs. Jets, at Steelers, vs. Vikings, at Lions, at Titans, vs. Chiefs, at Broncos, vs. Packers, vs. Chargers, at Chiefs)
The Raiders' next two games could be the beginning of a run toward the playoffs. They face the two current wild cards in back-to-back games. Win both, and people will start believing in the Derek Carr-led Raiders. However, two losses could be too much to overcome.
Two of the Raiders' losses this year have come against currently undefeated teams in the Broncos and Bengals, and their dominant first-half display against the Chargers highlighted that this team could be dangerous.
Carr, Amari Cooper, and Khalil Mack will need to continue to play like stars with a lack of overall talent on the roster, but they appear more than capable of doing so.
Buffalo Bills (3-4)
(vs. Dolphins, at Jets, at Patriots, at Chiefs, vs. Texans, at Eagles, at Redskins, vs. Cowboys, vs. Jets)
The Bills were sitting at 3-2 two weeks ago, and appeared to be a favorite to claim a wild-card spot. Two losses later, the Bills appear to have more questions than answers. The highly paid defense is underwhelming and the team desperately needs Tyrod Taylor and its offense to get healthy.
It won't get any easier from here on in, with three divisional games in the next three weeks. If they exit that stretch without a win, their season will likely be over.
This team has too much talent to not at least be in playoff contention late in the season, but if three teams from the AFC East make the playoffs, the Bills look set to be on the outside looking in.
Best of the rest
The Chargers and the Chiefs are both 2-5, but by virtue of their schedules, they both have a chance of rescuing their season. Despite the loss to the Raiders and a poor defense, the Chargers have four winnable games upcoming, and with Philip Rivers, it's not impossible that they could attempt their usual late-season run.
Without Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs have no offensive identity. They prolonged their chances with a victory over a Landry Jones-led Steelers, but their offensive limitations will stifle any attempt to snatch a wild-card spot.