Black Monday primer: Which coaches could be on the way out?
Any NFL teams that aren't gearing up for the playoffs as of Sunday night will officially turn their attention to the 2026 season. Franchises that fell well short of expectations will be weighing significant organizational changes.
Here are 10 coaching situations to monitor heading into what could be a busy Black Monday.
MORE - NFL coaching carousel: Top candidates to watch for 2026 cycle
Pete Carroll, Raiders
Should he be fired?
There isn't much to debate here. Carroll's first season in Las Vegas was a spectacular failure. Although he owns one of the more impressive coaching resumes in football, the Raiders have only gotten worse since his arrival. His legendary defensive reputation hasn't elevated a porous group, and hiring his son Brennan to coach the offensive line looks like an all-time nepotism nightmare. Crucially, the 74-year-old's win-now focus doesn't mesh with a team that clearly needs a methodical rebuild. Carroll's insistence on giving snaps to aging veterans instead of using the lost season to develop young talent should make this a wrap.
Will he be fired?
The wild-card factor is that it's the Raiders: not exactly an organization that's known for making logical decisions. Does Mark Davis have what it takes to admit yet another mistake and add another name to the list of coaches he's paying to not work for him? The financial resources available through recent ownership investors probably make that option more palatable than it might have been in years past. I think Las Vegas will bite the bullet and look to start fresh with a young coach who is aligned with the new-look front office. But you truly never know with the Raiders. An extended run of bad decisions is a big reason why they've appeared in two playoff games since 2002.
Raheem Morris, Falcons
Should he be fired?
This answer would have been pretty simple a few weeks ago. It's a little more complicated now the Falcons have found their footing down the stretch, but I don't think a coach's future should be determined by a few meaningless games late in a lost season. If a team is considering moving on, it's probably best to just do it rather than potentially waste another year. And that's where I'm at with Morris. Coaching was a big reason why the Falcons couldn't hang around in a lightweight NFC South beyond Week 14. His staffing decisions have been an adventure and game management remains a fairly consistent issue. Atlanta should look for a fresh start both on the coaching staff and in the front office.
Will he be fired?
That late-season surge shouldn't impact the overall evaluation of Morris. But that doesn't mean it won't. Falcons fans know better than anyone that Monday night's shocking win over the Rams could very well be what convinces Arthur Blank to run it back. Remember, it took a third straight 7-10 season from Arthur Smith before the Falcons opted to make the last change. Maybe patience would pay off this time around. After an eighth straight losing season, though, starting over is probably Atlanta's best option.
Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals
Should he be fired?
Yes. After some major improvements on both sides of the ball produced a respectable 8-9 record in Gannon's second season, it was reasonable to expect that an infusion of defensive talent had the Cardinals poised to take a step toward playoff contention. Instead, Arizona enters the final week of the season sitting at 3-13. The Cardinals have dealt with some key injuries, but who hasn't? The offense regressed in a big way after losing offensive line coach Klayton Adams to the Cowboys, and the drop-off has been equally sharp for the defense, Gannon's area of expertise. Three years is more than enough time to conclude that this isn't working.
Will he be fired?
Decision-makers could put together a case for staying the course - nobody wants to change coaches every few years. But in this instance, does ownership really have much of a choice? Losing 13 of their last 14 games after a 2-0 start makes it nearly impossible to believe that Gannon has the Cardinals headed in the right direction. With Kyler Murray likely on the way out, it makes sense for a new head coach to help identify Arizona's quarterback of the future.
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
Should he be fired?
Assume that the Bucs don't miraculously capture the NFC South in Week 18: It would be the first time in Bowles' four seasons as head coach that they didn't win the division. Making a change after one down year might seem like panicking, but are we sure this is a one-off? Bowles, promoted in 2022 on account of his work as defensive coordinator, hasn't put together a top-15 defense by EPA/play since his first year on the job, according to TruMedia. And while injuries have been a factor for a frustrating offense, the unit clearly doesn't have the same upside without Dave Canales or Liam Coen drawing up the plays. It might be time for an offensive-minded head coach after having to start over on that side of the ball three years in a row.
Will he be fired?
Change is probably on the way no matter what happens this week. Nobody in that building would be content with an 8-9 finish, even if it ends up being enough to come out on top of the NFL's worst division. And even with three NFC South titles, Bowles' Bucs reached 10 wins just once. The organization has developed a reputation for being among the best in football when it comes to drafting and developing talent. While the veteran head coach's track record is solid, it would be a surprise if this down season didn't nudge Tampa Bay's front office to find someone more capable of capitalizing on that strong foundation.
Kevin Stefanski, Browns
Should he be fired?
No. Seven victories over the last two years (pending the Week 18 result) obviously doesn't look like anything special, but I still think this is a pretty easy call. Stefanski won Coach of the Year honors twice with a pair of 11-win seasons over his first four years in Cleveland. The second of those, in 2023, included a combined 9-2 record in games with Joe Flacco or Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Stefanski is one of the most respected offensive minds in the game, and he'd quickly find a new head coaching job if the Browns moved on. They'd be wise to stay patient and continue building toward the day that Watson's albatross contract finally comes off the books.
Will he be fired?
This feels like a toss-up because the Browns are impossible to predict. I want to believe they're smart enough to understand that the ripple effects of the Watson debacle are, first and foremost, an organizational failure. Who's to say Stefanski wouldn't have kept the Browns in playoff contention were it not for an all-time blunder that decimated their draft capital and wrecked their cap situation for years on end? But it's also possible that Stefanski, knowing he'd get an opportunity elsewhere, ends up pushing for a change himself, as ESPN's Tony Grossi suggested this week. It would be tough to blame Stefanski after a rocky few years. The Browns would almost certainly elect to part ways if Stefanski makes it clear that he wants out.
Aaron Glenn, Jets
Should he be fired?
I almost never support firing coaches after one season - especially if they've been tasked with turning around perennial cellar dwellers like the Jets. Glenn even has some built-in excuses after New York dumped star talent for future picks at the deadline. That said, nothing about his first year inspires confidence. Glenn's game management is a problem, he's been bizarrely combative with the media, and his defensive background has done nothing to elevate one of the worst units in football. The Jets lost their last four games by a combined 107 points. This past week, Glenn's defense helped make Drake Maye the first QB in NFL history to finish a game with a 90% completion rate, 250-plus yards, and five touchdowns. It's been a deeply embarrassing start to this new era of Jets football. If the team plans to draft a young quarterback this offseason, it might be a good idea to start fresh so a rookie isn't dealing with a head coach who's already on the hot seat.
Will he be fired?
There's a pretty strong case for moving on after one year. But it still feels unlikely that Jets ownership will pull the plug so soon. After exhaustively searching for the right head coach to lead their team into the future, even the worst-run organizations are generally inclined to give a new hire more than one year. All notable reporting suggests the Jets see it that way, too; after Sunday's blowout loss, Fox Sports' Jay Glazer said Glenn's job is safe.
Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
Should he be fired?
There's a strong case to be made on both sides. On one hand, it seems like the shine of McDaniel's system has worn off. Tua Tagovailoa's play didn't help, but Miami is on track to finish with the 22nd-ranked scoring offense for the second straight season. McDaniel hasn't had much of a counterpunch since defenses adjusted to his RPO-heavy, timing-based passing game. On the other hand, the Dolphins fighting to the end of a tough season reflects quite well on their leadership. Personally, I've respected McDaniel's offensive creativity for a long time, and I'd be careful about letting him go. There's a decent chance next season reveals that Tua's limitations as a passer were what stood in the way of major adjustments. It'd be fascinating to see what this offense looks like with a new starting quarterback in 2026.
Will he be fired?
After a 1-6 start, it seemed inevitable that McDaniel would follow general manager Chris Grier out the door by the end of the year, if not sooner. Then the Dolphins won six of their next nine games (although it wasn't enough to save their season). While a second straight non-playoff year may be reason enough to entertain a change, it's not like the coaching staff was getting much help from the personnel department. The Dolphins seem likely to bet on a new GM giving McDaniel a better opportunity to shine next year, and that might be the right decision.
Zac Taylor, Bengals
Should he be fired?
This is the third straight season that the Bengals will miss the playoffs. In fairness to Taylor, injuries to Joe Burrow were likely the difference in two of those. But the results when Burrow's on the field have also been mediocre, with Cincinnati going 19-15. The front office deserves most of the blame for some shoddy roster-building, particularly on defense. However, a number of coaches are probably better suited to maximize Burrow's prime. The opportunity to work with an elite quarterback and the NFL's premier receiver tandem theoretically make this an incredibly appealing opportunity for any such candidate. If the Bengals were serious about winning, they'd be aggressive in finding that leader.
Will he be fired?
Unfortunately for Bengals fans, "serious about winning" is a pretty big factor, and it's not this organization's speciality. Taylor is under contract for another two years, and you can bet one of the cheapest teams in the NFL has no intention of paying him to go away. If the Bengals did, it would be truly stunning to see them turn around and pay top dollar for one of the best coaching candidates on the market. That's just not how Mike Brown does business. Burrow's curious press-conference moments do make me wonder if he'll use his influence to push for major changes this offseason. The Bengals should do everything possible to keep their superstar quarterback happy, but that doesn't mean they will.
John Harbaugh, Ravens
Should he be fired?
The Ravens have been a major disappointment this season, sparking questions about whether it might be time for a change after 18 years of Harbaugh. There's a pretty strong case for that move if they fall to the Steelers and miss the playoffs. Injuries or not, there is no excuse for a team with this much talent to not emerge from a terrible division. The calculus could change if Baltimore does sneak into the playoffs, though, because a team with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry has the potential to make some noise in a wide-open AFC. Getting hot at the right time would help everyone shrug off the tough regular season. Anything short of that, including getting sent packing by a middling Steelers team this weekend, and I lean toward shaking things up.
Will he be fired?
I'll say no, mostly because I think Baltimore beats Pittsburgh for the AFC North title Sunday night. As someone who believed this was going to be the Ravens' year, I can absolutely envision a scenario where they flip the script on years past and give us their best in the playoffs after a tough regular season. But that has more to do with my faith in this core than whatever the coaching staff is bringing to the table. If Pittsburgh completes the sweep to end Baltimore's season, this becomes the situation to watch league-wide. Top coaching candidates will line up if the Ravens' job is open for the first time since 2008.
Mike Tomlin, Steelers
Should he be fired?
It's been another interesting season of Tomlin discourse. The longtime Steelers coach deserves plenty of credit for his consistency: A 19-year run without a single losing record is astonishing. His leadership as a CEO-type head coach might be as good as it gets in sports. But that's only one part of building a championship contender. This will likely be Pittsburgh's ninth straight season without a playoff win. While there have been some personnel shortcomings over that span, including at the receiver position this year, Tomlin isn't blameless. Opponents have started to expose Pittsburgh's simple defensive scheme with its key players aging, and we're well past the point where we can expect any growth in his old-school approach to game management. Tomlin is one of the most respected coaches in football, but so was Andy Reid when the Eagles decided they needed some fresh ideas. The Steelers might need to follow that bold blueprint if they're ever going to escape this run of mediocrity.
Will he be fired?
No. Tomlin will likely be back as Steelers head coach no matter how this season ends. Pressure from the fan base will be at an all-time high if the team comes up short at home against Baltimore, and understandably so. Simply being competitive will never be good enough in Pittsburgh. But it's tough to imagine the notoriously conservative Steelers eating the last two years of a big-money contract for a coach who remains the face of the organization. I think Tomlin would have to initiate any change, and then the Steelers could expect to receive significant trade compensation from one of the many teams that would be interested. A standard firing seems like the least probable scenario of all.
Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.