NFL Week 6 picks: Will Jaguars stay hot vs. Seahawks?
Week 5 was another sub-.500 result, something I've unfortunately become accustomed to since starting this journey of picking every NFL game this season. Going 6-8 for the entire slate won't cut it, but finishing 2-1 on five-star plays (my most confident selections) will.
If you backed only the five-star picks over the past four weeks (13 total picks), you'd have won 61.5% of your bets. So, while the overall record may be off to a slow start, I'll take solace in the fact that the games I'm most confident in are coming through.
Let's dive into another Sunday of NFL action. If you're looking for prime-time games, they are featured in stand-alone articles.
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Jump to: Late slate
π Pick: Broncos (-6.5)
In last week's article, I said, "The Jets are due." They, in fact, were not due and fell to 0-5 with a bad 37-22 loss to the Cowboys. New York now heads to London to take on the Broncos, who are flying high after beating the defending Super Bowl champions.
For the second straight season, Denver has an elite defense. Led by Nik Bonitto (my preseason Defensive Player of the Year pick) and Patrick Surtain, that unit defeated Philadelphia by sacking Jalen Hurts six times and holding the Eagles to just seven second-half points. If the Broncos' defense brings the same effort overseas, the Jets may not score double-digit points.
New York's defense is nothing to be scared of. It's allowing the sixth-most yards per game on the ground (140.4), and Denver averages the fourth-most rushing yards on offense (140.6), creating a horrible matchup for the Jets. Bo Nix isn't playing as well as he did in his rookie season, but this is a good spot to get back on track against one of the league's worst teams.
This spread feels like one you'd see if the Jets were playing at home. In a neutral-site game, there's value on the Broncos.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Colts (-6.5)
The Colts were in this exact spot last week as 6.5-point favorites against a bad team. Now, the Cardinals may not be in the same tier as the Raiders, but they're coming off one of the worst losses in recent memory and could be very deflated. Not to mention, Kyler Murray is dealing with a foot injury.
Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen, the current betting favorite to win Coach of the Year, has his team playing incredibly well, including reclamation project Daniel Jones. Jonathan Taylor is in the running to be the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year. The Colts' offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking second in points scored per game (32.6) and fourth in yards per game (388). They're 4-1 against the spread this season, and there's no reason to believe they won't continue to roll over an uninspiring Cardinals team.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Ravens (+7.5)
Who in the world is backing Baltimore? Exactly. This feels like it should be a one-sided game, considering the Rams are the better team and the Ravens are reeling with Cooper Rush under center. Baltimore was embarrassed at home against the Texans in Week 5, as it continues to deal with injuries on both sides of the ball.
The expectation, though, is that the Ravens will get some bodies back for this meeting. Lamar Jackson is likely to remain sidelined, but having Marlon Humphrey or Kyle Hamilton (or both) would greatly help their secondary. And if Ronnie Stanley can play through his questionable tag, the offensive line will benefit greatly.
It feels like Baltimore has hit rock bottom, which is always a good time to buy low. Although the Rams have the rest advantage after playing last Thursday, they're traveling east for an early game against a desperate team. Los Angeles should win, but the Ravens should put up a fight.
Confidence level: β ββββ
π Pick: Browns (+6.5)
The Browns hung with the Vikings in Dillon Gabriel's debut across the pond. Next up, Cleveland faces a difficult road game against division rival Pittsburgh, which is coming off its bye week.
Both teams played Minnesota in the U.K. in their most recent games. The Steelers won by three, and the Browns lost by four on a late Jordan Addison touchdown. Moral of the story: These two are far closer than the 6.5-point spread suggests.
Cleveland has played Pittsburgh tough in recent years. In their past 10 meetings, the Browns have won five times, and two of their five losses were by fewer than five points. Their defense is the best unit in this matchup and should keep them in this one.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: Jaguars (+1.5)
The Seahawks head to Jacksonville for what could be the best game of Sunday's slate (aside from probably Sunday Night Football). The Jaguars are 4-1 after beating the Chiefs in thrilling fashion, while Seattle dropped to 3-2 after losing to the Buccaneers but continues to impress early in the season.
This game feels like a pure coin flip. The Jags proved they're an AFC contender, but could this be a prime letdown spot? Defeating Patrick Mahomes under the bright lights of Monday night can take a lot out of a group. However, the Seahawks are dealing with a ton of injuries to their defense, most notably two-time Pro Bowler Devon Witherspoon.
Choosing between these two feels like splitting hairs, but I give the Jaguars a slight edge. Seattle has to make one of the longest trips possible in the NFL, while Jacksonville is healthier and playing a second straight home game.
Confidence level: β ββββ
π Pick: Chargers (-3.5)
I get that the Chargers are dealing with injuries. Losing Joe Alt is a big blow to an offensive line that was already without Rashawn Slater, and Omarion Hampton will be tough to replace out of the backfield. But Los Angeles laying only 3.5 points to a bottom-five team is puzzling.
The Dolphins lost to the Panthers last week, and their once high-powered offense is gaining just 290.2 yards per game, the fifth fewest in the league. Their defense is also a disaster, allowing the fifth-most yards per game (402) and the sixth-most points (29).
Whatever problems the Chargers face won't be a concern in Miami. They still have Justin Herbert, who's playing high-quality football despite constantly facing pressure, and a defense that's conceding the sixth-fewest points per game (19.6). Jim Harbaugh is a superior coach to Mike McDaniel, and he won't let his group drop a third straight game.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Cowboys (-3.5)
The Cowboys were 2.5-point favorites on the road against the Jets last week and put up 37 points in a convincing victory. They now play the Panthers, another really bad team, and are being asked to cover 3.5 points.
Yes, Dallas' defense is among the worst, but does Carolina really have the weapons to take advantage? Even if the Panthers score 30 (their season high), the Cowboys can hang 40 on their defense. Dak Prescott is leading one of the NFL's best offenses, with the unit averaging 29.8 points per game and a league-high 413.8 yards.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Patriots (-3.5)
Maybe I'm a fish for taking another road favorite to cover by 3.5 points, but this is another game that doesn't add up. Perhaps the Patriots will lay an egg after an emotional victory over Josh Allen and the Bills, but the Saints are in contention for the first overall pick, making them a tough group to back.
New Orleans did beat the Giants last week, giving Spencer Rattler his first NFL victory. However, New York showed a bunch of issues that New England doesn't have, namely at the quarterback position. Drake Maye is playing at a very high level, which has him down to +2500 to win the MVP (alongside Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels). The Patriots have a substantial edge in this game at the most important position while carrying a much better defense.
Confidence level: β β β β β
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π Pick: Raiders (-3.5)
I was on the lucky side of the Cardinals' disastrous loss to the Titans last week, but losses like that come with the territory when backing mediocre teams to cover by more than a touchdown. We'll take our luck and move on by picking against Tennessee in Week 6.
The Raiders have their flaws. They've lost four straight after beating the Patriots in Week 1. But the Titans needed a miracle to pull off their first victory and have far more concerns on both sides of the ball.
Cam Ward is still going through growing pains as a rookie quarterback. Tennessee's offense is scoring 14.6 points per game and gaining the second-fewest yards (261). Its defense isn't much better, ranking in the bottom third for points and yards allowed.
Las Vegas is probably better than its 1-4 record indicates, and the Titans are a perfect opponent to face when trying to get back into the win column.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: 49ers (+3.5)
We'll call this game the injury bowl, as both teams are riddled with them on both sides of the ball. The 49ers may be the most banged up team in the league, while the Bucs will be without Bucky Irving and Mike Evans for the second straight game.
Somehow, Tampa Bay is 4-1 despite having a plus-three point differential. Baker Mayfield continues to pull rabbits out of a hat, leading the Bucs to nail-biting wins week after week. At some point, these close games will start going against them.
But the Niners picked up perhaps the most impressive victory of Week 5 over the Rams. Beating a good division rival on the road with a backup quarterback and minimal offensive weapons outside of Christian McCaffrey earned Kyle Shanahan a huge jump in the Coach of the Year race.
Confidence level: β β βββ
π Pick: Bengals (+14.5)
The Bengals will start newly acquired Joe Flacco at quarterback, which has to be considered an upgrade over whatever Jake Browning was providing. The spread didn't move upon the news, meaning the betting market doesn't think Flacco is an improvement over Browning. I disagree.
Flacco isn't great, but he's at least competent and should be able to get the ball into his playmaker's hands, even with a bad offensive line. The Bengals will likely run a dumbed-down version of their playbook, as the former Brown won't be up to speed, but perhaps that's exactly what they need to succeed. Feeding Ja'Marr Chase should be Flacco's only goal.
Helping Flacco's case is that he already played the Packers this year with Cleveland and beat them 13-10. That should help his preparation during a chaotic week on a new team.
Of course, the case for the Packers to win this game is extremely strong. They're coming off their bye and field one of the best defenses in the league. But this game has backdoor cover written all over it, and we've seen Green Bay play down to its competition in the past two games.
Confidence level: β β βββ
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