NFL Week 3 picks: Will Eagles or Rams move to 3-0?

We head into Week 3 after going 7-9 against the spread last week (2-1 on five-star plays) and ending up on the wrong side of three close matchups.

The Jaguars were outscored 21-10 in the second half by the Jake Browning-led Bengals, failing to cover by half a point. The Cardinals, meanwhile, failed to cover a 7.5-point spread after conceding 13 points to the Panthers in the final five minutes. And the Texans couldn't tackle anyone on the Buccaneers' final drive, resulting in a last-second touchdown and an outright loss.

Betting sides on the NFL is extremely tough, and the best bettors in the world can only do it at a roughly 55% clip - and that's on games where they believe that they have the biggest edge. With that in mind, we'll do our best to turn in a winning Week 3.

🏈 Check out all of the Week 3 NFL lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Jump to: Late slate

🏈 Pick: Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles snuck past the Chiefs by three points on the road last week, and they return home to welcome the 2-0 Rams. These two sides met in the divisional round last year, when Philadelphia won by six in snowy conditions.

This spread feels slightly too generous toward the Rams. They've beaten the underperforming Texans and the Titans, who are still working out early-season kinks with a rookie quarterback.

Philly is also 2-0 without having played its best football yet. Jalen Hurts has only thrown for 253 yards, but the Eagles haven't needed to pass the ball to score points. The Rams are traveling across the country for the second consecutive week to face the reigning champs in a hostile environment. This is a bad spot for Los Angeles - and one where the Eagles should cover easily.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Buccaneers (-6.5)

I've picked against the Buccaneers twice this season and been wrong both times. Tampa Bay is 2-0 but has only outscored its opponents by a combined four points. My gut says to stick to my guns, but the Jets are not a team worth backing on the road with questions at quarterback.

The Jets will start Tyrod Taylor after Justin Fields sustained a concussion in their 20-point loss to the Bills. Taylor isn't nearly as dynamic a runner as Fields, which will open up a Bucs pass rush that sacked C.J. Stroud three times last week. The Bucs haven't won by a touchdown yet, but they haven't faced a team as bad as the Jets either.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Patriots (+1.5)

Through two weeks, it's hard to know what to make of both the Steelers and Patriots. Pittsburgh won by two points on the road over the Jets in Week 1, but a collection of costly errors led to an embarrassing 31-17 home loss to the Seahawks. The Patriots dropped their season opener at home to the Raiders then went on the road to beat the Dolphins - maybe the worst team in the league - by six.

What we do know is that New England is a home underdog, which is never a bad team to back when dealing with a lot of uncertainty. Pittsburgh's defense doesn't appear to be of the same quality as Mike Tomlin's previous units. That should help Drake Maye operate comfortably. There's a chance All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez returns, which would be a huge boost to the Patriots' defense. But even if he's out again, they should be able to pick up a victory.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Panthers (+5.5)

The Panthers haven't looked great, but they've played back-to-back road games to open the season. Bryce Young struggled in the first, throwing for only 154 yards against a poor Jaguars secondary. However, he rebounded with 328 yards and three touchdowns versus the Cardinals, albeit on 55 pass attempts. Carolina is tough to judge, making the 5.5 points at home enticing in a divisional matchup.

The Falcons beat up the Vikings in prime time Sunday, but they're now on short rest and only two games removed from losing at home to the Buccaneers. This is a great spot to buy low on Carolina and sell high on Atlanta.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Colts (-4.5)

Every year, we see a team that the betting market is slow to react to. They start the season 6-0 against the spread (ATS) before the market catches on. This year, that team could be the Colts, who are slight favorites on the road versus the 0-2 Titans.

The Titans are a feisty group, but the Colts, 2-0 straight up and ATS, are playing some of the best football in the league. Daniel Jones looks revitalized, and Shane Steichen is the early front-runner to win coach of the year. Indy proved its Week 1 dismantling of the Dolphins wasn't a fluke by scoring 29 points on a tough Broncos defense. Barring a letdown, the Colts should breeze past the Titans.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Bengals (+2.5)

Before the season, this would've been an enticing matchup between Joe Burrow and J.J. McCarthy. Instead, due to injuries, we've been gifted a duel between Jake Browning and Carson Wentz.

In no world will I feel comfortable laying points with Wentz at the helm. Yes, the Vikings' defense is much better than the Bengals', and their offense has helped backup quarterbacks play well (Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens come to mind), but Wentz simply isn't good. He's also made only two starts since 2022.

Browning has proven to be a very capable replacement with a 5-3 record over his last eight appearances. Plug your nose and take the Bengals as underdogs.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Commanders (-2.5)

Marcus Mariota will start for the Commanders as Jayden Daniels tends to a knee sprain suffered in their Week 2 loss to the Packers. This line was originally Commanders as 6.5-point favorites but dropped with news that Daniels could be sidelined.

Even with Mariota under center, the Commanders are the side to take. He went 2-0 last season as Daniels' replacement and has shown he can operate Kliff Kingsbury's offense efficiently using short-yardage throws and his mobility. The market is out on the Commanders after their poor showing in prime time left a bad taste in people's mouths. But the Raiders are not the Packers.

Las Vegas' offense is struggling, unable to get Ashton Jeanty going while Brock Bowers looks limited due to a knee injury. Lay the 2.5 points with the Commanders.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Packers (-7.5)

This line is surprising given what we've seen the Packers do through two weeks. Their defense held the Lions and Commanders - two of the highest-scoring teams in the league last year - to a combined 31 points. They're a true Super Bowl contender alongside the Eagles, Bills, and Ravens, and are arguably the best team in the NFC.

The Browns won't have an answer for anything the Packers throw at them. Joe Flacco has dropped back to pass 90 times over two games. That formula won't cut it against Green Bay's relentless pass rush. The Browns simply lack a rushing attack, putting too much pressure on Flacco's arm.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Jaguars (-1.5)

Both of these teams have been unimpressive this season. The Jaguars received a Week 1 victory from the Panthers, only to gift the Bengals a win last week. The Texans are 0-2 and look completely lost on offense.

Houston's struggles come from having one of the league's worst offensive lines, which gives C.J. Stroud zero time to make plays. The Jaguars can take advantage of the Texans' biggest flaw, as they have the fifth-best pass rush, according to ESPN analytics. Yes, the Texans' pass rush is the best in the league, but Jacksonville boasts one of the top offensive lines to combat it.

This divisional game will be won in the trenches, and the Jaguars are better equipped to pull off a narrow victory.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Check out all of the Week 2 NFL lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: Chargers (-2.5)

The Broncos haven't shown enough to be considered in this spot - on the road against a 2-0 Chargers team that's firing on all cylinders.

Denver couldn't contain Daniel Jones and the Colts' offense last week, and there's little evidence to suggest it will handle Justin Herbert. Meanwhile, Bo Nix has looked OK through two games but shouldn't scare the Chargers' defense, even though they'll be without Khalil Mack.

Perhaps these two teams will be in different positions when they meet again in Week 18. But for now, take the team that appears to be the class of the AFC West.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Saints (+7.5)

The market may be higher on the Seahawks than what's currently warranted. The Steelers gave away last week's game to Seattle when the two sides were tied entering the fourth quarter. Prior to that, the Seahawks had only mustered 27 points through seven quarters.

The Saints are scrappy, and despite being 0-2, have yet to lose by more than seven points. Perhaps their first road game of the year is where it happens, but the Seahawks still have a lot to prove before being backed as 7.5-point favorites.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Cowboys (-1.5)

The Bears' defense is the worst unit in this game, which is saying something, considering the Cowboys' defense allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 450 yards and three touchdowns. J.J. McCarthy and Jared Goff both won NFC Offensive Player of the Week against Chicago's defense.

That bodes well for Dak Prescott, who's played very well during Dallas' 1-1 start. Dallas shouldn't have a problem putting up points, while Caleb Williams is struggling to get acclimated to the offense under new head coach Ben Johnson. This game total is the highest of Sunday's slate at 50.5. In a game with shootout potential, back the team with a better offense and defense.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: 49ers (-2.5)

Mac Jones looked solid in relief of an injured Brock Purdy, throwing for 279 yards and three touchdowns. Yes, it was against the Saints, but it was on the road in his first start as a 49er. There's no reason to doubt his ability to get the ball to San Francisco's playmakers versus the Cardinals.

Arizona has faced the Saints and Panthers to open the season, two of the worst teams in the NFL. The 49ers are a class above and play host Sunday. This should be a tight divisional meeting, but San Francisco only has to cover 1.5 points.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

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