Week 2 picks: Can Lions beat Bears to avoid disastrous 0-2 start?
Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, providing a glimpse of what could be in store for the remainder of the season.
It's easy to overreact to one week of action and let it change our preseason opinions on teams. Determining what's relevant and what's noise will go a long way toward picking games correctly over the next couple of weeks.
With that in mind, let's dive into the Week 2 Sunday slate.
π Check out all of the Week 2 NFL lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Jump to: Late slate
π Pick: Jaguars (+3.5)
I was wrong about the Bengals' new preseason plans helping them get off to a better start. They narrowly edged the Browns on the road and are now being asked to cover more than a field goal against the Jaguars.
Despite the Jaguars' routine victory in Week 1, you can't take too much away from their performance. They beat up a poor Panthers team, and Trevor Lawrence didn't look great. However, Travis Etienne showed he still has some juice left, racking up 143 yards on the ground.
Even if the Bengals' offense plays better at home, the Jaguars' offense has enough weapons to keep pace against a Cincinnati defense that failed to improve during the offseason.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: Bills (-6.5)
Bills fans may still be celebrating their epic comeback win over the Ravens, but it's back to business for Josh Allen and Co., who are 6.5-point favorites over the Jets.
Buffalo's defense will be better prepared to face Justin Fields on the heels of game-planning for Lamar Jackson. Thankfully for the Bills, Derrick Henry isn't on the other team this week, so they should have a much easier time keeping the Jets off the scoreboard.
After New York's defense couldn't slow down Aaron Rodgers, there's nothing to suggest it can keep Allen under wraps. Expect the Jets' offense to take a step back after what could have been a ceiling game against the Steelers while the Bills' defense rises to the challenge Fields presents with his legs, resulting in a convincing Buffalo victory.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Steelers (-3.5)
Seattle put up a good fight against the 49ers last week at home, but Sam Darnold only mustered 13 points in his first game for his new team. Now the Seahawks have to travel across the country to take on Rodgers and the Steelers, who put up 34 points in Week 1.
The Steelers' defense allowed 32 to the Jets, but Fields played as well as he could, and he can be tough to defend when he's completing passes and running effectively. Darnold doesn't run, so the Steelers should have an easier time game-planning for Seattle. Expect Pittsburgh to bring a strong defensive effort in its home opener.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Titans (+5.5)
The Titans hung tough as Cam Ward made his first NFL start on the road in Denver - not the ideal environment for a rookie quarterback to begin their career. While Ward wasn't overly impressive, he didn't need to be thanks to a strong effort from Tennessee's defense.
Ward will now face a stout Rams defensive front, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jared Verse. Being at home will help the Titans on both sides of the ball, and they're still getting 5.5 points against a team that's rated similarly to the Broncos.
The Rams beat the Texans 14-9 in Week 1. It's reasonable to expect another low-scoring, defensive battle for the Rams, and it's best to side with the home favorite getting a bunch of points, especially since Los Angeles is traveling across the country.
Confidence level: β β βββ
π Pick: 49ers (-3.5)
This game hovered around the 49ers as 5.5-point favorites before news broke that Mac Jones would be starting instead of Brock Purdy. After briefly moving to the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites, the line seems to have settled at San Francisco being asked to cover just over a field goal.
The unknown of Jones makes it tough to feel especially confident about the game. However, Kyle Shanahan's system is friendly to quarterbacks, which is why the jury is still out on whether Purdy is a bona fide top-10 QB or just a product of the scheme. Jones looked competent in his stint filling in for Trevor Lawrence last year in Jacksonville, so he should be able to move the ball against a weak Saints defense.
Spencer Rattler is now 0-8 in the NFL, and he did little to prove he deserves to be a starting quarterback in Week 1. Even with a backup quarterback and George Kittle out of the lineup, the 49ers should win comfortably.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: Lions (-6.5)
Bears head coach Ben Johnson returns to Detroit for the first time a few days after suffering a tough loss at home to the Vikings. Johnson will be familiar with the Lions' offensive approach, but Detroit will be as hungry as any team to pick up a crucial divisional win and avoid starting the season 0-2.
Caleb Williams looked improved on the Bears' first drive (a scripted set of plays) in Week 1, then reverted to the same quarterback he was as a rookie - chaotic and impatient. He didn't instill much confidence in his ability to operate Johnson's offense, at least not this early in the season.
Expect a bounce-back game from Detroit after being beaten up on the road in Green Bay. The Lions also have the luxury of an extra day of rest compared to the Bears, who played Monday night.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Cowboys (-5.5)
The Giants turned in a completely uninspiring Week 1 performance against the Commanders, scoring six points while failing to protect Russell Wilson or open up holes in the run game. Left tackle Andrew Thomas' return to the offensive line would be welcome, but he missed Wednesday's practice; his status is worth monitoring.
The Cowboys covered the 7.5-point spread against the Eagles in the season opener, losing by four in a closer game than many expected. If they can establish the run like they did against the Eagles (mostly thanks to Jalen Carter's spitting incident), they should have no problem putting points on the board. There's little reason to expect a breakout offensive game from the Giants, and there's a chance Jaxson Dart finishes this game for New York.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Patriots (+1.5)
The Dolphins did nothing in Week 1 to suggest they should be favored over any team in the league right now. They laid a massive egg on the road in Indianapolis, looking lifeless on offense while letting Daniel Jones carve up their defense. Tyreek Hill is already causing scenes on the sideline, Tua Tagovailoa threw two picks and was sacked three times, and head coach Mike McDaniel appears unable to motivate his group.
The Dolphins' trick at home is that they wear white jerseys and claim the shaded sideline while their opponent has to bake in dark jerseys in the Miami heat. But that tactic won't be enough to cover up all the Dolphins' problems.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Browns (+11.5)
Maybe the Browns aren't as bad as everyone thought they were going to be. Or perhaps the Bengals are just a poor Week 1 team, and Cleveland was lucky to hang around. Either way, 11.5 points is a lot for a divisional game - too many to pass up.
The Ravens are -900 on the moneyline (90% implied probability), and it would be shocking if they lost. However, the Browns have played the Ravens tough in recent years. Cleveland is 6-8 since 2018 (Lamar Jackson's rookie year), and nine of those games were decided by 10 or fewer points. Plug your nose and take the Browns to cover.
Confidence level: β ββββ
π Pick: Cardinals (-7.5)
Bryce Young and the Panthers did not look good in Week 1, making them difficult to trust, even when getting 7.5 points on the road in Arizona. Young threw for just 154 yards and was intercepted twice by what's considered a below-average Jaguars defense.
The Cardinals won by seven on the road over the Saints and are being asked to cover a similar number at home against a team that rates similarly to New Orleans. Arizona may not be favored by this much in any game for the rest of the season, but it's still the side worth backing.
Confidence level: β β βββ
π Pick: Colts (+1.5)
The Colts laid a beatdown on the dysfunctional Dolphins and became the first team since 1977 to score on every offensive possession, according to ESPN research. Daniel Jones wowed in his Colts debut, passing for 272 yards and no interceptions.
Meanwhile, the Broncos led the Titans by a point going into the fourth quarter, and their offense looked disjointed. Bo Nix completed only 25 of 40 passes and threw two interceptions. Had Denver won more convincingly in Week 1, when it was favored by 8.5 points, it would be easier to lay the 1.5 points. But some concerns about Nix's play, combined with the Colts' emphatic Week 1 win, make Indy the side to take.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: Eagles (-1.5)
The NFL loaded up the early slate and put two less interesting games at 4 p.m. to set the stage for Week 2's main event: a Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs.
The Chiefs are underdogs for the first time at home in three years. They lost by six to the Chargers in Brazil and could be without Xavier Worthy in Week 2.
This could be the worst supporting cast Patrick Mahomes has ever had. If Worthy is out, Mahomes is left with Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and an aging Travis Kelce as receiving options. They have absolutely no rushing attack either. Isiah Pacheco looks far less explosive than he did prior to breaking his leg last year, and Kareem Hunt has no burst and is still getting a handful of carries. Mahomes led the Chiefs in rushing last week with six rushes for 57 yards.
The Eagles' season got off to a strange start when their best defensive player was ejected before the first play for spitting on Dak Prescott. Carter will be back to face the Chiefs and should be able to eliminate whatever rushing attack Kansas City deploys.
On the other side of the ball, it's full steam ahead for Jalen Hurts and the rest of the offense. After a quiet Week 1, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will likely be more involved, giving the Eagles options through the air and on the ground.
Perhaps doubting Mahomes is a mistake, but this version of the Chiefs' offense will have a tough time keeping up with the Eagles, making it difficult to bet on Kansas City here.
Confidence level: β β β β β
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