MNF betting preview: Bears look to spoil McCarthy's highly anticipated debut
The Bears host the Vikings on Monday night in a clash between NFC North rivals, and both teams have a lot to look forward to in 2025. Chicago has a new head coach in Ben Johnson, who many believe can unlock Caleb Williams' potential, and Minnesota officially kicks off the J.J. McCarthy era.
The NFC North may be the best division in the league - all four teams have a win total of 8.5 or higher - heightening the importance of this matchup.
π Pick: Bears (+1.5)
The Vikings are projected to be a slightly better team than the Bears this season, with +375 odds to win the NFC North compared to Chicago at +475. The spread reflects that, but it also equates to the Vikings being 4.5- to 5-point favorites at home, which feels like too many points for a divisional game.
Another aspect the spread may not be properly accounting for is how McCarthy will present in his debut. A lot can go wrong for a 22-year-old making his first start on the road in prime time. That's not to say McCarthy isn't ready for the bright lights or he'll have a poor season, but there's a lot of added pressure in his first NFL game.
Additionally, the Vikings may not have the clear coaching advantage in this matchup anymore. Kevin O'Connell is the reigning Coach of the Year, but Johnson was highly coveted in the offseason. Even though he's unproven as a head coach, Johnson could take the Bears' offense to another level.
Williams is expected to take a big leap in Year 2 after a rather disappointing rookie season for the former first-overall pick. Going up against a stingy Vikings defense will be a great litmus test to see how much he improved over the offseason. If he's taken strides, Williams should be able to outduel McCarthy at home and win a close game.
π Justin Jefferson over 6.5 receptions
What better way to get acclimated to the NFL than to frequently target the best wide receiver in the league? Expect O'Connell to create a game plan that makes life easy for McCarthy, and getting Jefferson involved early and often will be a part of his scheme. Don't be surprised if Jefferson sees 10 or more targets and hauls in seven receptions rather comfortably.
π J.J. McCarthy over 14.5 rushing yards
McCarthy averaged 15.8 rushing yards per game in college, so he's not afraid to tuck the ball and run on occasion. He might also be quick to pull the ball down and take off in his first start rather than progressing to his second and third reads. This total will take one scramble from McCarthy to hit, and he could end up rushing the ball four to five times.
π DJ Moore over 59.5 receiving yards
Moore's likely to operate the Amon-Ra St. Brown role in the offense Johnson brought from Detroit to Chicago. That means he'll be the focal point in the passing game, and 59.5 yards is an easy number to clear if Williams hits the ground running in Week 1.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Aaron Jones +165
The addition of Jordan Mason to the Vikings' backfield shouldn't deter you from betting on Jones in Week 1. He led Minnesota in carries last season (255) and is fully healthy heading into the season opener. Chicago struggled against the run in 2024, allowing the most rushing touchdowns and second-most yards to opposing running backs.
π DJ Moore +175
Moore was Williams' favorite pass-catcher in 2024, leading the team in targets (140), receptions (98), and receiving yards (966). The veteran also received the most red-zone targets (20) and faces a Vikings defense that allowed the second-most yards to opposing wideouts last season.
π Colston Loveland +400
Our long shot of the night goes to the rookie tight end whom Chicago selected 10th overall in this year's draft. Johnson should use a ton of two-tight end sets this year, giving Loveland ample opportunity in the passing game. Johnson loved utilizing Sam LaPorta in the red zone during his time in Detroit, and this should translate to his game plan with the Bears.
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