Every NFL team's biggest X-factor for 2025 season

Each NFL team has at least a few critical components that could have especially influential roles in determining its fate this fall.

For some, it's players whose performance (or availability) could make or break the club's season. Others might be hoping for an incoming coach to elevate the entire operation. There's also always the potential for young players to emerge as breakout stars.

Let's take a look at every team's biggest X-factor for the 2025 season, avoiding quarterbacks where possible.

❌ Will Johnson, CB

I'm not going to pretend to know anything about the long-term concerns teams had surrounding Johnson's knee. But based on ability, there's no world in which the former Michigan star should have been available to Arizona in the second round. Johnson can be a legitimate No. 1 corner at this level, making him the kind of player who could take the Cardinals' defense to the next level.

❌ Michael Penix Jr., QB

Penix enters his sophomore season after getting a brief three-game stint to close out the 2024 campaign. He demonstrated that his unique arm talent could open up the entire offense, but he only completed 58.1% of his passes. Penix finding the efficiency to match his undeniable upside would help the Falcons push for a playoff spot.

❌ Jaire Alexander, CB

Alexander is one of the best cornerbacks in football when healthy but has struggled to stay on the field lately. The Packers opted to part ways with the two-time Pro Bowler after he missed 20 games over the last two seasons. However, if Alexander can stay healthy in Baltimore, we're likely looking at one of the best defensive backfields in football. That would be a scary good complement for an offense coming off an all-time great season.

❌ Dalton Kincaid, TE

Kincaid's career in Buffalo has gotten off to a frustrating start. Injuries and general inconsistencies have played a part, but the ability that made him a fascinating first-round prospect is still there. Kincaid finally having his long-awaited breakout in Year 3 could help the Bills' passing game find another gear, making this offense even more difficult to stop.

❌ Bryce Young, QB

Young took a significant step forward after being benched last year. He ranked 18th among all quarterbacks in EPA/dropback from Week 8 through the end of the regular season, according to TruMedia. Can Young make another big jump with first-round rookie Tetairoa McMillan stepping in as his WR1? The Panthers' offense could be a lot better than people think.

❌ Ben Johnson, HC

The Bears have all the talent they need to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. It's up to Johnson to put it all together in his first season as a head coach. While that's easier said than done, we have every reason to believe he'll be a difference-maker over a staff that had this team running like a circus last year.

❌ Al Golden, DC

Everyone knows how good the Bengals offense can be - that's not a concern heading into 2025. The defense is another story. After a frustratingly inactive offseason in terms of roster turnover, Cincinnati is counting on Golden to be an upgrade over departed defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. The result of this gamble may well determine whether or not the Bengals are a playoff team.

❌ Mason Graham, DT

It's tough to pick out an X-factor for the Browns, as this club will likely be fighting an uphill battle to be competitive anyway. However, a dominant defensive line can mask a lot of issues. Cleveland has the potential for that kind of front if Graham can complement Myles Garrett with the game-wrecking ability he showed at Michigan.

❌ Micah Parsons, DE

There isn't much uncertainty about what Parsons will bring to the table when he's on the field. The star pass-rusher is one of the very few players capable of single-handedly elevating an entire defense. But with the Jones family once again playing the contract game, and things escalating to the point where Parsons requested a trade, his future in Dallas remains unclear. Although the Cowboys could be better than people think with a healthy Dak Prescott back in the mix, it becomes tougher to see the path without their best player.

❌ Bo Nix, QB

An already-great Broncos defense could be even better after adding several potential impact players this offseason. And with the arrow also pointing up on offense, it's easy to envision the Broncos returning to the playoffs for the second straight year. Nix taking another step in his development, and ideally becoming a more proficient downfield passer, could determine whether Denver is a real player in the AFC.

❌ Graham Glasgow, C

Ben Johnson isn't the only one leaving big shoes to fill in Detroit. While the now-former offensive coordinator drew a lot of praise for everything the Lions accomplished on that side of the ball, none of it was possible without high-end contributions from the offensive line. That group now faces some uncertainty after the retirement of Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow. Glasgow's success transitioning from guard might be the biggest key to the Lions' offense avoiding any sort of drop-off.

❌ Matthew Golden, WR

The Packers did some great things on offense last year, but it always felt like that unit was a true No. 1 receiver away from joining the league's elite. The front office apparently agreed, making Golden the team's first receiver selected in the first round since 2002. The Texas product parlaying his strong training camp into a role as Jordan Love's primary target could help push this team over the top.

❌ Nick Caley, OC

Improved offensive line play could be all that stands in Houston's way when it comes to joining the rest of the top contenders in the AFC. Although the collection of new faces doesn't necessarily represent a meaningful upgrade on paper, the Texans are hoping that a new scheme can also help matters. Caley, who spent the last two seasons working for Sean McVay after eight years in New England, should have a much more polished vision for how this offense runs.

❌ Anthony Richardson, QB

We've seen enough of Daniel Jones to understand the lack of upside - he's just not an exciting option to run out there at quarterback. Richardson has a long way to go after a brutal start to his career, but at least there's still potential. The former No. 4 pick winning and keeping the starting job would both make the Colts more exciting this season and maintain some hope for the future.

❌ Trevor Lawrence, QB

Liam Coen's arrival should provide a significant boost to the Jaguars' offense. The same can be said for the addition of Travis Hunter. But Lawrence remains the key to it all. He needs to be better, even if the situation crumbling around him was a leading factor in his struggles over the last two years. The former No. 1 pick returning to his 2022 form could help Jacksonville become competitive sooner than later.

❌ Josh Simmons, LT

The first round of this year's draft couldn't have gone much better for the Chiefs. After a Super Bowl beatdown exposed their weakness up front, they were able to sit back and have a potential franchise left tackle fall right into their lap. Simmons, who I saw as the best pass-protector in this class, already seems to have made a full recovery from the knee injury that impacted his draft stock. The Chiefs' offense will have addressed one of its few weak points if he looks anything like he did at Ohio State.

❌ Eric Stokes, CB

It's easy enough to get excited about the Raiders' new-look offense, but the defense could still be a problem. The lack of proven talent in the secondary, in particular, might be difficult to overcome. But what if Stokes can finally put it all together after battling injuries and inconsistent play in Green Bay? He showed flashes of his former first-round ability down the stretch last year, giving up just seven catches and 26 yards from Week 12 through the end of the regular season, according to PFF.

❌ Trey Pipkins III, RT

Rashawn Slater's season-ending knee injury is a major loss for the Chargers. They'll be fine at left tackle with 2024 first-round pick Joe Alt shifting over from the right side, but that move bumps Pipkins back into the starting lineup in his place. The former third-round pick gave up nine sacks and 49 pressures across 17 games at right tackle in 2023. His play could have an outsized impact on the potential of the L.A. offense.

❌ Matthew Stafford, QB

This one has nothing to do with ability. Stafford is still a top-10 quarterback, and he's got all the weapons he needs to have a huge season in Los Angeles. The X-factor is a question of when he'll be on the field. There's suddenly some uncertainty on that front, as a back injury has kept him out of practice throughout camp. The Rams are a Super Bowl contender with a healthy Stafford throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Jimmy Garoppolo, obviously, doesn't offer nearly the same upside.

❌ Tyreek Hill, WR

Hill's production took a massive hit last year. We can probably chalk that up to his season-long battle with a wrist injury. But what if this was merely a matter of a 30-year-old receiver starting to slow down? Hill recapturing his previous form would help the Dolphins' passing game get back to its explosive ways. A repeat of last year's struggles could have this unit spinning its wheels. At that point, jobs would likely be at risk.

❌ J.J. McCarthy, QB

It's impossible to know what to expect from a quarterback who missed his entire debut season with a knee injury. The Vikings' offense could hit some bumps in the road as McCarthy tries to figure things out on the fly. But this organization has also done a masterful job of setting him up for success. Minnesota is likely a playoff lock if McCarthy can find a way to minimize the mistakes.

❌ Will Campbell, LT

Drafting Campbell with the No. 4 overall pick was New England's biggest move in reshaping the offensive line. While his wingspan sparked widespread debate about whether he was a fit at tackle, the Patriots evidently have no such concerns. This turnaround could move all the more swiftly if Campbell indeed looks like a Pro Bowler from the jump.

❌ Alvin Kamara, RB

Kamara can't keep doing this forever. Now heading into Year 9, it's only a matter of time before his game falls off. It hasn't happened yet, though. The five-time Pro Bowler remains a dangerous weapon in the pass game. And with the Saints having improved the offensive line, he could also be in position for a fairly productive year on the ground. Kamara staving off the decline for another year would be a big help to a young quarterback room.

❌ Darius Slayton, WR

Slayton getting a three-year, $36-million deal to stay in New York probably seemed a little odd, considering his mediocre production. However, the Giants clearly understood that their quarterbacks had long wasted the 28-year-old's vertical ability. No longer. Russell Wilson's game may be trending in the wrong direction, but he can still air out a deep ball as well as anyone. Slayton could be in for his best season yet, providing an important complement to Malik Nabers.

❌ Justin Fields, QB

The Jets are expected to be pretty good on defense under Aaron Glenn. As for the other side of the ball, we'll see. An incredibly talented offensive line should provide a strong foundation up front. Garrett Wilson is also a suitable No. 1 receiver, and Breece Hall headlines a deep backfield rotation. Fields has the potential to swing this group pretty far in either direction. Can he finally take the next step as a passer?

❌ Kevin Patullo, OC

Kellen Moore's departure is the most glaring question mark hanging over the Eagles. Promoting from within didn't work out so well the last time an offensive coordinator left for a head coaching job, as Brian Johnson lasted just one year before Philly had to make another change. But Patullo has been the pass-game coordinator for the entire Nick Sirianni era. There's plenty of reason to believe he can be the one to keep a good thing rolling.

❌ Aaron Rodgers, QB

The Steelers are embracing the win-now approach and doing everything they can to build a contender around Rodgers. It's a fascinating gamble. Will it pay off? Well, it probably depends on the 41-year-old quarterback himself. His game has rapidly been trending in the wrong direction, but there were some brief flashes of the old Rodgers down the stretch last season in New York. Pittsburgh will be hoping that being another full year removed from his Achilles injury can help him turn back the clock enough to compete.

❌ Christian McCaffrey, RB

The 49ers' offense will always have an incredible baseline for success under Kyle Shanahan, but McCaffrey's do-it-all skill set takes this thing to new heights. Will San Francisco be able to count on him for 17 games? Now 29 years old and coming off a season in which he missed all but four contests, McCaffrey's durability could ultimately determine whether the 49ers can get back to the playoffs.

❌ Klint Kubiak, OC

I'm extremely bullish on the trajectory of the Seahawks' defense under Mike Macdonald. By season's end, I think we could be looking at a consensus top-five unit in football. While I'm less certain of what things are going to look like on offense, there's plenty of reason for optimism. Remember what Klint Kubiak's offense looked like for those first two weeks in New Orleans before injuries hit? Anything even resembling that kind of efficiency could make the Seahawks a playoff team.

❌ Jacob Parrish, CB

Tampa Bay's offense should remain one of the best in the business this season, but this team's ceiling will depend on whether Todd Bowles' defense can get back on track. Parrish making an instant impact out of the slot could be a crucial development in that regard. The third-round rookie seems to be the favorite for the nickel corner job amid a strong training camp. He's an impressive athlete with the sticky coverage skills that could help a defense that gave up the fourth-most passing yards per game in 2024.

❌ Dan Moore Jr., LT

Tennessee made one of the boldest moves of free agency when it signed Moore to a four-year, $82-million deal. On the surface, it seems like a reckless overpay since he's coming off a season in which he allowed 12 sacks, the most among all offensive tackles, according to PFF. Maybe the Titans see something the rest of us don't. Cam Ward's early career development would receive a big assist if they're right.

❌ Trey Amos, CB

Amos was one of my favorite corners in this year's draft. A fluid athlete with impressive coverage instincts and good ball skills shouldn't be available at the end of the second round. The Ole Miss product stepping in alongside Marshon Lattimore and Mike Sainristil quietly gives Washington an incredibly talented cornerback room. And with Lattimore having played fewer than 10 games in each of the last three years, Amos' presence could be all the more valuable.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.