Top breakout candidate at every position in the NFL
With the 2024 NFL regular season a month away, here's a look at one player at each position poised for a career-defining campaign.
Richardson flashed a lot of potential in his limited snaps as a rookie. The Florida product recorded three passing touchdowns and four rushing scores in just 173 snaps across four games.
The 22-year-old's shoulder appears to have healed well after he missed the majority of last season, and the Colts have continued to add talent around him. Indianapolis selected two offensive linemen and two receivers in April's draft, including former Texas wideout Adonai Mitchell, who should start in three-receiver packages alongside Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs.
Richardson will also benefit from playing alongside running back Jonathan Taylor. The pair only shared the field for several snaps in one game in 2023. Taylor and Richardson should immediately be one of the NFL's most threatening rushing backfields.
Add on an extra year of NFL development and offensive system immersion, and Richardson is set up for success entering his second season.
White has been catapulted from backup to presumed starter after Josh Jacobs' departure in free agency. White had 549 yards and one touchdown from scrimmage in 2023, with the bulk of that production coming in the final four weeks when he started in place of Jacobs.
The 24-year-old averaged 114.25 scrimmage yards in those four contests while playing at least 70% of the team's offensive snaps in three of the four games.
He was reasonably efficient with his opportunities, too. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry during his stretch as a starter and caught 78.9% of his passing targets on the season.
White should also benefit from a scheme that'll likely be run-heavy. Neither Gardner Minshew nor Aidan O'Connell are particularly inspiring, and new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy leaned on the run game often during his two seasons leading the Bears' offense. Chicago finished second in rushing attempts in 2022 and 2023, finishing first and second in yards, respectively.
Several Packers wideouts could've made this list, but none have the exceptional athletic profile Watson does. His 4.36-second 40-yard dash time pairs with his excellent 6-foot-4, 208-pound frame to create a terrifying blend of speed and size.
The 25-year-old has averaged 15 yards per catch since entering the league as a second-rounder in 2022, scoring 12 touchdowns on 69 receptions. Twenty of his 28 catches in 2023 resulted in a first down.
Watson has missed 11 of 34 regular-season games, largely due to hamstring troubles. However, the speedster worked on that issue over the offseason, according to ESPN's Rob Demovsky.
The final piece to the Watson breakout puzzle is the development of quarterback Jordan Love. The signal-caller took big steps during the second half of the 2023 season and should build on his 4,159-yard, 32-touchdown output, especially if Watson can leverage the knowledge he gained from the hamstring testing to stay on the field.
Freiermuth should benefit from new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's track record of leveraging tight ends. Kyle Pitts led the Falcons in targets in 2021, was third on the team in 2022 despite playing in just 10 games, and was second in 2023. Jonnu Smith ranked fourth last season behind Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson.
Games | Targets | Target share % | |
---|---|---|---|
2021 Pitts | 17 | 110 | 19.9 |
2022 Pitts | 10 | 59 | 14.8 |
2023 Pitts | 17 | 90 | 17.8 |
2021 Freiermuth | 16 | 79 | 12.1 |
2022 Freiermuth | 16 | 98 | 17.9 |
2023 Freiermuth | 12 | 47 | 9.7 |
Unsurprisingly, Freiermuth's best season came in 2022. He hauled in 63 receptions for 732 yards with a nearly identical target share percentage as Pitts had in 2023. The latter finished with 667 yards on 53 grabs. While Freiermuth isn't the athlete that Pitts is, he's shown he can be a playmaker when the offense gives him opportunities.
Smith will likely find plenty of opportunities for the 25-year-old, especially given the reliable hands that he showed off in 2023, not dropping any of his targets.
Freiermuth's breakout chances are only bolstered by the lack of other established pass-catchers on the Steelers' roster. Blocking specialist Darnell Washington is the team's primary backup tight end, while the wide receiver room is lackluster beyond George Pickens.
Ekwonu has been solid but unspectacular since being selected sixth overall in the 2022 draft. That's due largely to inconsistency in Carolina's offense, with multiple head coaches calling the shots. The arrival of new head coach Dave Canales and his tackle-friendly offense should help Ekwonu improve from capable to imposing in 2024.
Canales appears focused on highlighting Ekwonu's strengths given how well he's looked this offseason.
"It's a great system for tackles. … I think (Ekwonu) has been doing a great job," the 43-year-old coach said in July, per Sports Illustrated's Schuyler Callihan. "What does he do best? He is a mauler, and we're going to run the ball, and I think when guys are able to just be aggressive and play to their nature, it gives them a lot of confidence in everything else they do."
Canales' scheme will only be aided by the eventual addition of rookie Jonathon Brooks into the offense. The Texas product is rehabbing a torn ACL but profiles as a three-down back who should be more efficient and explosive than the combination of Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard that Carolina employed last year.
Jurgens has the unenviable task of replacing future Hall of Famer Jason Kelce as the team's starting center. However, the 24-year-old has the tools to make the loss sting less.
First, Jurgens is a much more natural center than he is guard, the position he's played the most since entering the NFL. He's relatively small for a guard at 303 pounds, and that size difference is notable in some reps when he's put in one-on-one situations. This was highlighted by his 22 total pressures allowed as a pass-blocker, per PFF.
Now, however, he'll benefit from having a double-team partner on more snaps. That should let him leverage his exceptional speed when peeling off and climbing to the next level far more frequently. The Nebraska product ran a 4.92-second 40-yard dash at the 2022 combine, which ranks in the 97th percentile among all offensive linemen, according to the MockDraftable database.
Jurgens also didn't allow a sack or commit any penalties while playing as an undersized guard in 2023, according to PFF.
Everyone knew that Walker was a rare athlete when he was selected first overall in the 2022 draft. We got a glimpse of what he could be as a pass-rusher in 2023 when he tallied 10 sacks and 19 quarterback hits.
Walker should build upon those numbers with an extra year of experience. He'll only be aided by continuing to play opposite Josh Hines-Allen, who'll likely receive plenty of extra blocking attention after racking up 17.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits last season.
A breakout is especially promising given the edge rusher's production over the last four weeks of the season. Walker posted five sacks, five tackles for loss, and six quarterback hits to close out the campaign, setting himself up to continue his development.
McNeill has had an eerily similar start to his career as one of 2022's biggest breakouts, Ravens defensive lineman Justin Madubuike. Madubuike followed up his gradual rise with a 13-sack campaign in 2023. McNeill appears primed to follow suit with a similarly impactful season after finishing last year with an 88.5 overall grade, according to PFF.
McNeill | Madubuike | |
---|---|---|
Drafted | 72nd overall (2021) | 73rd overall (2020) |
1st season | 2 sacks | 1 sack |
2nd season | 1 sack | 2 sacks |
3rd season | 5 sacks | 5.5 sacks |
McNeill already enjoyed one step up in production, and the 24-year-old's breakout chances are only helped by the Lions' reloaded defensive front. Detroit added defensive tackle DJ Reader and edge rusher Marcus Davenport to play alongside McNeill and Aidan Hutchinson. The latter should get lots of double teams, while Reader will help keep opposing centers and guards busy, freeing up McNeill to build upon last season's success.
There might not be a linebacker in the league who can match the combination of size, athleticism, and production that Chenal has flashed. The 6-foot-3, 250-pounder is blazing fast and possesses exceptional lower-body explosiveness, ranking among the most impressive off-ball linebackers in the MockDraftable database.
Test | Result | Percentile |
---|---|---|
40-yard dash | 4.53s | 92nd |
10-yard split | 1.55s | 90th |
Vertical jump | 41 inches | 96th |
Broad jump | 128 inches | 95th |
He's not just a tester, either. The 2022 third-rounder started 10 games for the Chiefs last year, tallying 65 total tackles (eight for loss), three sacks, seven quarterback hits, and a pass deflection. Chenal also finished with 11 pressures on 24 blitz attempts and only missed 4.4% of his tackle attempts.
All of that came on just 41% of the Chiefs' defensive snaps. The 23-year-old should earn extra playing time this year given his combination of abilities, production, and the departure of Willie Gay in free agency.
Like Richardson, Gonzalez flashed lots of potential before missing the majority of his rookie campaign due to a shoulder injury. In just four games, the Oregon product had an interception, three pass deflections, a sack, and a tackle for loss. The 22-year-old earned an 80.8 overall and 79.3 coverage grade in his limited snaps, per PFF.
That production netted Gonzalez the Defensive Rookie of the Month award for September. He should once again be locked in as a starter once healthy. He ranks in the 88th percentile or better in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, and height, according to MockDraftable.
Gonzalez's landmark game came in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins. He allowed just three receptions on five targets for 32 yards against Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and eventual passing yard king Tua Tagovailoa. That was also the game that Gonzalez recorded his first interception.
Battle did a little bit of everything for the Bengals last season. He finished the campaign with 71 total tackles, an interception, five pass deflections, two sacks, four tackles for loss, and three quarterback hits.
That versatility, combined with the fact that he's just 23 years old, should earn him more playing time in 2024. He started just seven of his 17 regular-season appearances while playing 48% of the team's total defensive snaps last year.
Putting up the numbers that he did last season while playing fewer than half of the total plays shows just how much room there is for a breakout, especially when his seven starts came from Weeks 12 through 18. In that time frame, he played at least 81% of the team's defensive reps every week and tallied the majority of his impressive production.
Battle is expected to start alongside free-agent acquisition Geno Stone, who was a ball magnet with the Ravens last year. He finished the campaign with seven interceptions and nine pass deflections. Teams could view that as enough of a deterrent to try and throw Battle's way, only giving him more chances to make plays on the ball.
Mims' potential breakout is different from most others, as he was actually a second-team All-Pro returner last year. However, the 5-foot-11, 182-pounder is set up to become a household name this season with the new kickoff format.
He returned 15 kicks for 397 yards and a touchdown last season. His 26.5 yard average ranked second among all players with at least 10 returns and fourth among all players with at least 15. Mims put up those numbers despite kickers' chances at touchbacks being increased thanks to Denver's mile-high altitude in his home games.
If teams give Mims opportunities to return kicks rather than aim for a touchback that now places the ball at the 30-yard line, he could consistently give the Broncos great starting field position and score multiple touchdowns.
Dicker should benefit from a several key factors this year. First, he's one of the bigger kickers in the league at 6-foot-1, 216-pounds. That size should help him contribute as a tackler on the new hybrid kickoffs when necessary without taking as much physical damage as others at his position.
The Chargers only play six outdoor games this season, giving him plenty of opportunities to show off his accurate leg without worrying about potentially inclement weather. One of those games is also a road trip to Denver, where he'll benefit from the thinner air if he attempts any long-range field goals.
Dicker has also been one of the NFL's most accurate kickers over the last two seasons, nailing 94.5% of his field goals and 100% of his extra-point attempts. If he's able to maintain that efficiency under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, then he could enter the conversation for best kicker in the league.
HEADLINES
- Colts go back to Richardson as QB1 for rest of season
- NFL award rankings: Race heating up for MVP, rookie honors, more
- Steelers' Elliott: 2023 Dolphins were 'soft,' lacked mental toughness
- Moore calls Waldron firing 'shocking' as Bears support Caleb amid struggles
- Stefanski: Wills used 'poor choice of words' saying it was 'business decision' not to play