6 storylines to watch in Week 18 as the playoff picture clarifies

Sixteen games are on the NFL schedule this weekend and 13 have postseason implications, either for seeding purposes or for determining the last playoff entrant in both conferences. Follow these marquee storylines as Week 18 unfolds.

Hamlin's well-being, AFC playoff outlook

Damar Hamlin continues to recover in hospital from the cardiac arrest he suffered on the field Monday. Players and fans donated millions to his charity toy drive. Tributes to the 24-year-old Bills safety abounded on social media. The unprecedented suspension of the Buffalo-Cincinnati game reflected that Hamlin's health is paramount.

The NFL will delete the game from the schedule. Rather than move it to next weekend and delay the AFC wild-card round, the game won't be contested and the playoff teams will be seeded by win percentage.

The Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed Saturday by beating the Raiders to get to 14 victories. A Kansas City loss and Buffalo win over the Patriots on Sunday would elevate the Bills to first place. The Bengals can't vie for the top spot but will win the AFC North, meaning the no-contest decision denies the Ravens a chance to finish third.

NFL owners on Friday approved two modifications to the playoff format:

• If Baltimore beats Cincinnati on Sunday, a coin toss would decide which team hosts a potential Ravens-Bengals wild-card showdown.
• Should the Chiefs face either the Bills or the Bengals in the AFC title game, it'll be played at a neutral site if the two finalists finish the regular season with the same number of losses.

The tweaks are convoluted but fine. The Bills and teams around the league rightfully were given time this week to process Hamlin's plight. Seeing him collapse was traumatic. Game results and logistical conundrums are secondary to the welfare of the players.

NFC bye up for grabs

The Eagles control their destiny in the NFC bye race. They'll clinch first place if they beat the Giants on Sunday, and they can back into the bye if the 49ers lose to the Cardinals and Dallas falls to Washington. The Cowboys need both Philadelphia and San Francisco to lose to rise to No. 1 themselves.

Any of these powerhouses could finish second, an advantageous position. Earning a week off is inarguably good, but No. 3 Minnesota is uniquely weak for a 12-win team. The Vikings rank ninth in the NFC in point differential (minus-19) and 31st in the league in points against (25.9 per game). By Football Outsiders' DVOA rating, they're one of the 10 worst squads to reach the postseason in the last 40 years.

Should the Vikings eke out a wild-card win at home, one lucky quarterback would get an opportunity to pick them apart in the divisional round. It could be Jalen Hurts, the rare MVP candidate whose case got stronger while he was injured. It could be Brock Purdy, the preternaturally competent Mr. Irrelevant. Purdy's Niners are on a nine-win heater and have doubled their opponents in scoring in that span.

The Cowboys haven't lost in regulation or scored fewer than 24 points since Week 6. Dak Prescott has tossed as many touchdowns as Hurts (22) in three fewer starts, though his 3.9% interception rate is the worst in the league. The Commanders matchup is pivotal. No favorite will have a tougher Super Bowl path than whichever of Dallas or Philly winds up in fifth.

Lawrence's 1st big moment

Saturday night's AFC South title game pits ascendant Jacksonville against freefalling Tennessee. The Jaguars have racked up five victories since the Titans last won. But the Titans' superior divisional record would secure them the No. 4 seed if they prevail Saturday and both teams finish 8-9.

This is Trevor Lawrence's moment to seize. The nightmarish rookie campaign he endured is ancient history.

The Jaguars lost 11 of Urban Meyer's 13 games as head coach in 2021 as Lawrence, the No. 1 pick that year, led the league in interceptions. He's rounding into franchise form under Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor. A 70% passer in eight of his appearances this season (compared to two in '21), Lawrence has tossed 14 touchdowns and two picks since the start of November and led comeback drives to stun the Ravens and Cowboys.

The Titans are aiming to avert disaster. With Ryan Tannehill injured and rookie Malik Willis firing at a 50.8% completion rate, they'll tap sixth-year pro Joshua Dobbs to make his second career start. Signed off Detroit's practice squad right before Christmas, Dobbs went 20-for-39 in his debut against Dallas last week, throwing for 232 yards with one TD and one pick. He put up some numbers, but he's no Lawrence.

Key Packers-Lions battleground

Green Bay has the simplest path to the NFC's No. 7 seed, followed by Seattle and Detroit in that order. The Packers clinch the berth if they beat the Lions at Lambeau Field to extend their win streak to five games. A Lions victory in prime time Sunday only powers them to the postseason if the Rams upset the Seahawks that afternoon.

The Packers can't be eliminated before they take the field. How they fare in the red zone will help decide their fate. Green Bay vastly outgained Detroit in their first clash this season but committed five turnovers in opposing territory.

Aaron Rodgers set season highs in passing yards (291) and interceptions (three) when the Lions downed his club 15-9 in Week 9. Picked off in the end zone twice, Rodgers threw four straight incompletions from Detroit's 17-yard-line on the futile final drive, exhibiting why the Packers rank 23rd in red-zone touchdown rate.

Rodgers shouldn't have to force passes on Sunday. Green Bay running back AJ Dillon has scored in five straight games and catches the Lions at an opportune time. The Panthers and Bears in back-to-back weeks just torched Detroit for 520 combined rushing yards.

Four teams - Detroit, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh - were four wins below .500 at midseason or later before they surged up the standings. Last in the NFC in point differential through Week 8, the Lions now possess the conference's fourth-best mark. Juggernauts like the Chiefs and 49ers are in the midst of long win streaks, but some playoff gate-crashers have momentum on their side, too.

2nd-half tailspins

On the flip side, some squads' fortunes have cratered in the past two months. Once 6-3 or better just like Tennessee was, the Dolphins, Jets, and Seahawks all enter Week 18 at or below .500.

Miami's and Seattle's QBs faltered. Marvelous throughout the first half, Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith rank 19th and 20th, respectively, in EPA/play among qualified passers since Week 10, per Ben Baldwin's database. By passer rating, three of Smith's five worst outings this season came in various December defeats. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa is concussed and will miss the Dolphins' must-win finale against the Jets.

At least they're still in the hunt. The Jets never got the kind of serviceable QB play from Zach Wilson that enabled their New York rivals to prosper. The Giants slipped from 7-2 to 9-6-1 yet remained a playoff team despite shaky underlying metrics, in part because Daniel Jones engineered fourth-quarter comebacks in four close wins.

Records watch

A few weeks ago, we spotlighted a handful of player and team benchmarks that were attainable down the stretch.

Since then, the elimination of the Jets prolonged their NFL-worst playoff drought to 12 years. The Packers pulled away from the Bears in the standings to become the league's all-time winningest franchise. Ruled out of Chicago's finale with a hip strain, Justin Fields got within 64 yards of besting Lamar Jackson's single-season QB rushing record (1,206).

Two major yardage records will fall this weekend if the players in striking distance come through with massive performances.

Patrick Mahomes needs to pass for 430 yards against the Raiders to eclipse Peyton Manning's mark of 5,477. Mahomes' weekly average is 315.5 yards, but he threw for 423 and 446 yards around midseason in back-to-back Chiefs wins over the 49ers and Titans. Favorably, Las Vegas ranks 29th in passing yardage allowed and is 32nd in DVOA against the pass, per Football Outsiders.

Justin Jefferson has to rack up 194 receiving yards at Chicago to break Calvin Johnson's record of 1,964. The Vikings wideout has surpassed or sniffed that total a few times, including when he gashed the Lions for 223 yards in December.

The goal became more difficult when Green Bay held Jefferson to one catch last weekend. That said, the Bears are 31st in pass defense DVOA and let him amass 154 yards in their first encounter.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.