5 records or milestones that could be established in the final weeks
With four weeks to go in the NFL schedule, some single-season yardage records are in play to be toppled, while a handful of teams could attain significant benchmarks in January. Here's a rundown of the milestones to monitor around the league.
Patrick Mahomes, passing yards
Record holder: Peyton Manning (5,477 yards in 2013)
Mahomes this season: 4,160 yards, on pace for 5,440
The addition of a 17th game in 2021 endangered every NFL yardage record. Manning's fabled mark persisted last season, but Mahomes is threatening to eclipse him. Nearly a fifth of Mahomes' completions (60 of 336) this year have been explosive plays that gained 20-plus yards, and a quarter (81 so far) wind up in tight end Travis Kelce's sure hands.
He'll break Manning's record if he averages 329.5 passing yards against the Texans, Seahawks, Broncos, and Raiders. Las Vegas, the Chiefs' Week 18 opponent, ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass, per Football Outsiders. Kansas City's duel with Buffalo for the AFC's No. 1 seed raises the probability Mahomes will play that afternoon.
Next season, Mahomes will likely throw his 200th touchdown pass much earlier in his career than any other quarterback. Dan Marino reached the milestone in 89 appearances, while Manning required 106. Mahomes' stat line - 184 TDs in 76 games - puts him on pace to sling No. 200 in September.
Justin Fields, QB rushing yards
Record holder: Lamar Jackson (1,206 in 2019)
Fields: 905 yards, on pace for 1,206
Because Fields missed a game with a dislocated shoulder, he's on track to match Jackson's record output on the ground in 16 appearances. He's averaging 75.4 yards with his legs and has surpassed 80 yards five times since mid-October, including when he gashed the Dolphins for a 61-yard TD sprint and 178 rushing yards total.
Fields' spurts of brilliance as a second-year pro have brightened Chicago's 3-10 campaign. He's scampered for a score in each of his past six contests, equaling the NFL record that Bears QB Johnny Lujack set in 1950. The Bears reek defensively - they rank 29th in points allowed and 32nd in DVOA, per Football Outsiders - but Fields' dynamism makes them watchable.
Fields raced 55 yards to the house on a keeper against the Packers in his last game but only attempted five other rushes. His season high for carries is 18. Neutral fans should root for him to hog the ball as the year wanes.
Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill, receiving yards
Record holder: Calvin Johnson (1,964 in 2012)
Jefferson: 1,500 yards, on pace for 1,962
Hill: 1,460 yards, on pace for 1,909
A week ago, Hill led the league in receiving yardage by some distance. Then Jefferson overwhelmed the Lions' weak secondary, gaining 223 yards on 11 catches against Johnson's old team to become the front-runner to one-up the Hall of Famer.
Jefferson's enormous game compensated for his quiet showings against the Cowboys and Jets in recent weeks. Four opponents have held the Vikings wideout below 50 yards, but he's gone off for 140-plus yards on five occasions. That upside makes it possible he'll average 116.25 yards, a tick above his current rate, in matchups with the Colts, Giants, Packers, and Bears, even though Indianapolis and Green Bay have stingy aerial defenses.
It'll be harder for Hill to trump Johnson's record. He's cleared 140 yards six times this season but never in a divisional game, which doesn't bode well for upcoming tilts with the Bills, Patriots, and Jets. Per Ben Baldwin's database, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa no longer leads the NFL in expected points added per play, the result of a downturn in accuracy that he'll need to reverse to maximize Hill's production.
New York Jets, long-sought playoff return
NFL's longest active postseason drought (11 seasons)
Rex Ryan coached a menacing defense the last time Gang Green made the playoffs, which was in 2010. Linebacker Bart Scott, chiding the Jets' doubters after eliminating New England, snarled that he couldn't wait to play for the AFC championship. Mark Sanchez, New York's starting QB, had yet to lose the butt fumble.
To snap the playoff skid, the 2022 Jets need to vault the Patriots and Chargers in the AFC standings. All three squads are 7-6, but the Jets' inferior conference record and pair of losses to New England currently box them out of a wild-card spot. They're in ninth place with four games to go.
The Jets host the Lions and Jaguars and face the Seahawks on the road before traveling to Miami for the season finale. The Dolphins are 8-5 and remain in search of their first postseason victory since 2000. Tagovailoa could deliver it if his slump ends, while New York will count on its sixth-ranked defense to dominate.
Green Bay Packers, all-time regular-season wins
Lead Chicago Bears by one victory (787 to 786)
The Bears franchise has topped the all-time wins leaderboard at the end of every NFL season. That's held true since 1920 when the Decatur Staleys went 10-1-2 to build an edge that proved insurmountable for a century.
The Packers afforded Chicago its head start by joining the league in 1921 but have finally closed the gap. Green Bay's 28-19 win at Soldier Field on Dec. 4 upped the club's historical total to 787, downgrading its NFC North rival to second place. (The Giants are third with 706 wins, while the Cowboys' .571 win percentage ranks first in that category.)
The Bears have to post one more win than the 5-8 Packers over the next month to share the all-time lead entering the offseason. Both teams face the Lions and Vikings to end the year, but Chicago's upcoming opponents (Eagles, Bills) are stronger than Green Bay's (Rams, Dolphins). Advantage, cheeseheads.
As a bonus, here are a few more pursuits to track over the final four weeks.
Josh Jacobs needs 704 rushing yards, or 176 yards per game, to break Eric Dickerson's long-held record of 2,105. Averaging 149.5 yards would make him the ninth player to amass 2,000 in a season. Neither is likely: Jacobs' average output to date is 107.8 yards. That said, the Raiders star leads the NFL in rushing by a wide margin and is set to hit pay dirt as a pending free agent.
Nick Bosa needs 8.5 sacks to reach 23 for the campaign, which would establish a new record. The 49ers defensive end dealt with hamstring irritation last week and has only put up three multi-sack games this year. But San Francisco's next opponents, the Seahawks and Commanders, are shaky in pass protection and rank in the bottom 10 in sacks allowed.
Mike Evans needs 195 receiving yards to record 1,000 yards in each of his first nine NFL seasons. It would be a first in league history. On pace to achieve that, the Buccaneers wideout could eventually match Jerry Rice's standard for 1,000-yard consistency. Rice fell short of the benchmark as a rookie but went on to surpass it in his next 11 seasons.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.