TNF player props: Who's ready to party on the Titans and Packers?

Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.

"You haven't won. You may think you've won, but you haven't won. Do you know why? It's not over. This is not over. I'm not forgetting what's happening here." - George Costanza to a drugstore clerk after feeling shortchanged at checkout.

The above quote from Season 3, Episode 10 of "Seinfeld" feels like something Aaron Rodgers could say to just about anyone in the NFL - his own team's management, Mike McCarthy, or any squad the Packers trail against.

'The Stranded'

Much to Elaine's chagrin, Jerry takes one for the team by following "the code" and letting George take the car home from a Long Island party. Rodgers might feel like he's "The Stranded" in Green Bay this season, but he hasn't exactly been a team player by negotiating for every last dollar for himself.

Over a barrel, the Packers haven't called 555-LOVE like Kramer recommended. Green Bay drafted quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft, starting a lingering internal conflict.

It's taking longer for Love to take over than it took Kramer to find 8173 Riviera Drive because Rodgers can execute a game plan better than just about anyone in the NFL. The Packers stuck with the run game while trailing big in the second half against both the Bills and Cowboys in recent weeks, with Rodgers biding his time to take shots against single coverage.

Like George after his failed relationship with coworker Ava, we may long for the good old days. But Rodgers slinging the ball around isn't the Packers' best bet to win games. The quarterback's most viable options line up behind him, so his most useful skill is getting Green Bay into the best running plays possible. (Once an impatient defense creeps up, his few deep throws can also be a boon.)

Jerry's episode-opening stand-up bit about over-the-counter medications resonates with the Packers' scoring drives, which are either quick-acting (deep strikes) or long-lasting (run-heavy).

The Titans' run defense is statistically good at 3.9 yards per carry allowed. However, their few run-heavy opponents - the Giants and Raiders - had success on a per-carry basis. Tennessee's early scoring forced Las Vegas and Indianapolis (twice) into a throw-heavy script. However, Green Bay's defense allowed only 2.5 points per game in the first quarter at home this season.

Numerous defensive starters missed a warm-weather Tennessee home game last Sunday. It should be a colder night at Lambeau Field than the Seinfeld gang's ride back to Manhattan in Kramer's convertible was. That won't be ideal for banged-up players readying for a run-heavy game.

The Titans' offense will plan to do the same thing with Derrick Henry, so drives could be lengthy clock churning for both sides. Longer drives equal fewer drives, and fewer drives mean fewer pass attempts for Rodgers to exhibit his new-found on-field patience.

Pick: Aaron Rodgers under 33.5 pass attempts

A TD that's definitely going to happen

Maybe Rodgers doesn't throw it a ton Thursday, but when he does, he can go back to his most experienced target in the red zone. Allen Lazard wasn't involved much against the Cowboys, but he was up against Trevon Diggs for much of the afternoon. Lazard was healthy enough to play 98% of the snaps and has touchdowns in five of the previous seven games he played this season. Rodgers might call an audible - tapping his own head harder than Elaine trying to get out of a bad conversation - and opt for a throw to Lazard at the goal line.

Pick: Allen Lazard anytime touchdown (+187)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

We haven't struck a long shot since Week 3, so we're feeling more annoyed than Elaine when she sees a woman wearing a fur coat. While George refuses to pay $9.60 for medicine in retaliation, it might be worth betting that amount on Chigoziem Okonkwo. With explosive ability, there's a chance he gets over the goal line again.

You might not be familiar with Okonkwo's work, as he's less recognizable than Seinfeld guest star Michael Chiklis - who plays party host Steve - but you'll remember his name if he scores his second touchdown of the season. The rookie fourth-round pick's snap count doubled since missing Week 6, and he has seven targets with two explosive receptions of over 40 yards in those last three games.

Pick: Chigoziem Okonkwo anytime touchdown (+650)

How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.