NFL teams to buy, sell post-draft: Don't sleep on Washington
Top-tier free agents have been signed, schedules have been released, and all 32 teams have added to their rosters through the draft. It's time to start diving into how teams stack up in the NFL futures market.
Following the offseason madness, here's which teams I'd buy or sell right now.
Buy - Washington Football Team
Washington's offseason wasn't sexy. But it didn't need to be. Last year, the defense ranked No. 3 in DVOA, PFF graded the offensive line as its sixth-best unit, and the skill corps found two anchors in wide receiver Terry McLaurin and tight end Logan Thomas.
All Washington needed was average play at quarterback after the unit clocked out at No. 30 in yards per attempt (5.8), No. 28 in passer rating (80.0), and No. 21 in completion percentage (64.3%). It got the boost it needed in Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose PFF grade from 2019-20 was nearly 10 points higher than any Washington quarterback who took more than 250 drop-backs in the same time frame.
On paper, this is the NFC East's most complete team. After crushing it at the draft, the franchise should be on its way to a second straight divisional title. The sky's the limit, especially in a conference that might not include Aaron Rodgers this season.
Sell - Steelers
The Steelers were all over the place in 2020.
They began the year 8-0 but were the fourth-luckiest team since 1960. Naturally, Pittsburgh regressed and finished 12-4 during the regular season before crumbling in the first round of the playoffs to the Browns. The Steelers should've been a 10.7-win team overall when factoring in point differential.
They made a couple of attractive picks on paper in the draft, but it's not going to move the needle. Najee Harris will bulldoze three or four defenders per game, but Pittsburgh was also the outcast that plucked the first running back on Day 1 because, well, the position group was just that bad last year.
All in all, the Steelers are regression candidates - they were projected for only 10.7 wins in 2020. Plus, no matter how you slice it, they have an uphill battle: Pittsburgh plays the most difficult schedule based on last year's opponents' win percentage, the third toughest by this season's win totals and the fourth toughest when using current Super Bowl odds.
Buy - Falcons
I'm more bullish on Washington in the long run, but Atlanta could also do some damage this season.
The Falcons were easy fades last year in a strong division, but is this the year they turn it around? The franchise has gone under its win total in three straight years, missing the mark by at least two victories in all three campaigns.
If there's any silver lining for last season's 4-12 squad, it should've been a 7.5-win team based on point differential - that's some solid work considering Atlanta had the NFL's fifth-toughest schedule.
The Falcons didn't blow the draft out of the water, but their early picks patched up their primary problems: Safety Richie Grant helps out a secondary that ranked No. 30 in explosive pass rate last season, and Jalen Mayfield could be the Day 1 left guard.
Atlanta also landed the best non-quarterback in the draft with tight end Kyle Pitts. Plus, the team draws the third-easiest schedule when taking into account last year's combined opponents' winning percentage.
This might be a sneaky-good bandwagon to jump on.
Sell - Jets
General manager Joe Douglas is putting on a clinic constructing the Jets' roster. I love New York's long-term outlook as the front office continues to shore up the team, but I feel the market's going to be high on a franchise that's still a ways away.
The Jets went 2-14 last season, and that's not even the saddest part: They weren't even a full win better than their Pythagorean record (2.8-13.2). New York got a much-needed facelift this spring, but will rookie signal-caller Zach Wilson and Co. be able to pile on five or even six more wins in a division where all three other teams improved?
The future's bright, but this ain't the year.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.