Rams-Buccaneers betting trends and player props
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For the fourth time this season (and third instance in four weeks), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 48) are in a prime-time spot. This one is against a dangerous but inconsistent Los Angeles Rams squad looking to keep pace in the fierce NFC West.
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Monday night.
Betting trends
Two weeks after getting blown out by the New Orleans Saints in prime time, the Buccaneers are under the bright lights once again. This spot hasn't been favorable for them as of late; Tampa Bay is 5-15-1 against the spread in its last 21 prime-time games - including 0-3 ATS this year - with a 6-2 run to the under.
The Rams have covered six of their last nine games in the night slot with a 6-3 record to the under, holding their three prime-time opponents this year to 17 points per game. They're also 6-2 ATS in their last eight as road underdogs, while the Bucs are 8-16-2 ATS as home favorites since 2013.
When it comes to facing top competition, the advantage goes to Sean McVay, who's covered four of his last five against teams with winning records. Bruce Arians is 10-20-2 ATS in that spot since 2015, when he was still coaching the Arizona Cardinals.
As far as recent Monday night trends go, favorites are 6-3 ATS since Week 4, and the under is 23-10-1 since late 2018, including 8-4-1 this season.
Player props
Darrell Henderson under 31.5 rushing yards (-110)
Even if Eric Dickerson was suiting up in this one, I might be tempted to bet the under on his yardage prop against this stellar Buccaneers defense. Tampa Bay has allowed 54.7 rushing yards to opposing running backs this season - easily the best in the NFL - and should put the clamps on an uncertain backfield on Monday.
Henderson has recorded just 15 rushing attempts combined in his last two games, ranking behind Cam Akers (10) last week and Malcolm Brown (10) the contest before. Even if he does get a shot, he'll struggle to find daylight against the Buccaneers' front, making this an easy fade.
Tom Brady under 300.5 passing yards (-130)
Brady turned back the clock last week with 341 passing yards and three touchdowns against a lousy Carolina Panthers secondary, but don't expect him to carry that momentum into Monday's contest. He's topped 300 yards just three times this year in games against the Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Los Angeles Chargers. None of those clubs have earned strong marks with their pass defense.
In all other games, he's averaging 237.1 passing yards, which is closer to what you should expect against a Rams defense that entered the week ranked third in passing yards allowed (199.7). This is an inflated number that offers plenty of value in what should be a test for Brady.
Best bet
Under 48
Prime-time unders have been cash for a while. Perhaps it's due to the influx of public bettors nudging the total upward, or maybe it's because of the extra time defenses have to prepare for what's coming. Whatever the reason, this looks like another ideal spot to bet on two stellar defenses in a game both sides need to win to keep their divisional hopes alive.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.