Sunday Night Football betting preview: Bills at Steelers
When the NFL flexed this game to Sunday night two weeks ago, some found the move laughable. It's hard to find fault in it now, with the Steelers within one game of the Bills for the fifth seed in the AFC playoff picture.
The last time Pittsburgh lost to Buffalo was in 1999, winning six straight in the series since then. Yet the Steelers are narrow home favorites, and bettors aren't so sure they deserve to be.
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
(Trends are from Sports Database unless noted otherwise.)
Line movement
Pittsburgh opened as a short 2-point home favorite and remained there for much of the week. But a steady stream of money on Buffalo pushed the line to Steelers -1.5 as of Saturday afternoon, and it could even shorten given the overwhelming amount of Bills support in the market.
The total is also moving to a record low. Bettors have driven Sunday's number from 37 to 36, which is tied for the lowest total since 2012.
Betting trends
Are the Steelers for real? Since his team got off to a 1-4 start, Mike Tomlin has led this injury-plagued group to seven wins in their last eight games.
It might not be as impressive as it sounds, though. All but one of those wins were within one possession, and seven of Pittsburgh's last eight opponents currently have a losing record. The lone outlier was a Rams team coming off the fateful London bye.
The Bills haven't run through a murderer's row, either, but they've gone 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six with blowout wins in all four ATS victories. Buffalo is also 5-0-1 ATS on the road this year and 9-2-1 ATS on the road in Josh Allen starts since he took over in 2018.
One of the most profitable trends in recent years is also in play here, with solid logic to back it. Since 2017, road 'dogs of less than two points are 24-5 ATS and straight up, including 4-2 ATS/SU this season. Assuming a typical 2.5/3-point home bump for the Steelers, the market is essentially signaling that the Bills are a full point better on a neutral field.
The trends also lean under, which is perhaps the most interesting bet in this game given the paltry total. Both teams are a stellar 10-3 to the under, tied for the best record in the league, and each is riding multi-game under streaks - five straight for Pittsburgh, three for Buffalo.
Low totals have also been a solid under bet this year - totals below 41 are an intriguing 21-7 (75%) this season, including a perfect 9-0 in games involving these two teams. Only eight games have seen a total of 37 or below since 2013, with a 6-2 record to the under.
The X-factor
There's a reason bettors are leaning under here: both offenses rank below average in points and yards for but rank in the top six in points and yards against. And each team's defensive strength profiles nicely against the opposing offense.
Allen has been impressive when given time this year, but his passer ranking under pressure (54.2) ranks 30th among 34 players with at least 200 dropbacks. The Steelers boast the nastiest pass rush in the league and should have their way with a Bills offensive line that was exposed last week against Baltimore's mediocre pass-rushers.
Devlin "Duck" Hodges will also have trouble with a Buffalo secondary that deserves to be mentioned in the same class as New England's and San Francisco's. JuJu Smith-Schuster is back on the sidelines this week, and breakout wideout Diontae Johnson will have trouble finding space against standout corner Tre'Davious White, who ranks second in passer rating allowed among cornerbacks with at least 500 coverage snaps, per PFF.
Pick
At first glance, Sunday's total looks like the kind you'd have to be crazy to bet under. But do you really want to bank on a 20-17 or 23-14 final score with the way these defenses are playing? The under has been a profitable play in spots like these all year and in years past, and it looks playable here, too.
The side is a little trickier - both teams are riding high despite feasting on mediocre competition, so it's more about which side you think is for real. In a game that could be decided by a lucky break on offense, follow the money on the Bills; Buffalo's defense is on par with Pittsburgh's but has a significant skill position advantage and an edge at QB.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.