Sunday Night Football betting preview: Bears at Rams
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No two NFC teams have disappointed relative to expectations more than the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams, who will meet Sunday night in a potential "loser leaves town" match in the NFC wild-card race.
Both clubs are on the outside looking in of the NFC playoff field, but a win for the Rams (5-4) would bring them within one game of the Vikings for the final spot. The Bears (4-5) have a bit more work to do, but they'll face Minnesota in Week 17 and can ill afford to drop Sunday's game against a struggling L.A. team.
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
The Rams opened as seven-point favorites Monday morning but were bet down to -6.5 by Friday behind a run of Bears money.
Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, said the Bears were seeing 22 times as much money as of Friday, even with the ticket count favoring Chicago by a mere two-to-one advantage. Translation: Sharps love the Bears, and this line could move off +6.5 by Sunday.
They're also hitting the under, which opened at 40 and reached 41 before a couple of sharp plays pushed it down to 40.5.
Betting trends
Since dominating the Saints in Week 2, when Drew Brees went down with an injury during the game, the Rams simply haven't looked like the same team. In the weeks since then, Los Angeles is 3-1 against the spread versus clubs currently at .400 or worse and 0-3 ATS against teams with a better record, including last week's ugly loss to a Steelers team with a strong defense and a non-existent offense.
Sound familiar? According to DVOA, Chicago has the 26th-ranked offense, two spots above Pittsburgh, and the fifth-ranked defense, two spots below the Steelers. The Bears haven't been ATS stalwarts this season, but they've caught 6.5 points or more just once in the Matt Nagy era thanks to a dominant defense that typically keeps things close.
Winning big against a non-hapless foe has been a tough test for Sean McVay. Since taking over in 2016, McVay is 11-15-2 ATS against teams with a winning percentage better than .400, including a 4-10-1 run dating back to last season. Six of those last seven games have gone under, too.
Under is the big trend for this matchup. Both teams are 6-3 to the under this year with streaks of at least three games. When two teams meet with under streaks of at least three and a total below 41, the under is 15-5-2 since 2004 and 8-2-2 since 2009.
McVay's never seen a total this low, but Nagy is 6-2 to the under with totals below 41. This year, games with a total below 41 are 14-3 to the under.
The X-factor
Both teams enter this game with a top-five defense, according to DVOA, and top-seven pass-rushing units, according to PFF. That could be an issue for each offense: The Rams' offensive line ranks third-worst in pass-blocking grade, according to PFF, while the Bears have the fifth-worst passing grade overall.
Mitchell Trubisky has been a constant sore spot for Chicago, which has topped 21 points just twice this season. L.A.'s offense produced as many turnovers (four) as points in last week's loss to Pittsburgh and couldn't keep Jared Goff off the turf. Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald will be the two best players on the field Sunday, and neither should have much trouble wreaking havoc against two suspect offenses.
Pick
The last time the Rams won against a competent team was Week 2 vs. New Orleans, which was without Brees for most of the game. Additionally, Cam Newton was playing through an injury during L.A.'s Week 1 victory over Carolina. So it's hard to justify laying nearly a touchdown on a faux contender, even with how uninspiring Chicago has played as of late.
Instead of trusting your money with Goff or Trubisky, try the under, which has been cash this season on low totals and looks promising in this spot with two top defenses. These aren't your 2018 Rams, so we likely won't see either side break away Sunday night.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.