In an ultra-competitive NFL, teams that celebrate a playoff berth one year often see their fortunes come crashing down the next. But the trend also works the opposite way.
Recently, we've seen a number of last-place clubs earn a postseason spot by winning their division the following season. For instance, the 2017-18 Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles finished at the bottom of the NFC East standings the year prior. The Houston Texans accomplished a similar feat last season, claiming the AFC South title one year after finishing in the division's cellar. The same happened to the 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13 in 2016), and the 2016 Dallas Cowboys (4-12 in 2015).
As we turn our attention to the upcoming season, here's every last-place team from 2018 ranked by their chances of winning the division this time around.
8. New York Giants, NFC East
2018 record: 5-11
Notable moves: Signed WR Golden Tate; traded for G Kevin Zeitler; traded for S Jabrill Peppers; drafted QB Daniel Jones; drafted DT Dexter Lawrence; drafted CB DeAndre Baker; signed S Antoine Bethea
Though there are two recent examples of NFC East squads going from worst to first, don't expect the Giants to continue the trend. Their offseason began with Dave Gettleman's seemingly bizarre strategy, which saw him trade star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and top pass-rusher Olivier Vernon to Cleveland, while letting Pro Bowl safety Landon Collins walk in free agency. Although Gettleman made improvements along the offensive and defensive lines, his roster lacks blue-chip talent.
Then there's New York's quarterback conundrum. The team shocked the football world by selecting Daniel Jones No. 6 overall in April. Although the pick was ridiculed by many, Jones excelled in preseason action while drawing praise from his coaches. The rookie's play makes the Giants' apparent decision to start Eli Manning all the more bizarre. Gettleman and head coach Pat Shurmur appear set on playing Manning for most, if not all, of the 2019 campaign. As a result, their squad's chances of competing will dwindle.
In any case, the Giants face an uphill climb to NFC East supremacy. There's certainly young talent on this roster, but New York has too many issues on offense; stud running back Saquon Barkley can't do it all. With the Eagles and Cowboys set to compete for the division's top spot and the Washington Redskins fielding a strong defensive unit, a last-place finish is a more likely result.
7. Cincinnati Bengals, AFC North
2018 record: 6-10
Notable moves: Hired HC Zac Taylor; re-signed TE Tyler Eifert; re-signed CB Darqueze Dennard; re-signed LB Preston Brown; signed G John Miller; signed CB B.W. Webb
For a team that's installing new schemes on offense and defense, the Bengals didn't make many changes to their roster. Andy Dalton is back for perhaps his final campaign with the club, during which he'll be asked to lead a scoring unit ravaged by injuries. Top wideout A.J. Green is set to miss the first few weeks of the season and is no sure bet to return to form immediately. Meanwhile, Tyler Eifert is making his way back from major ankle surgery and John Ross just returned from hamstring troubles, so the ascending Tyler Boyd will take over as Dalton's No. 1 target.
Joe Mixon is as talented as running backs come, but he'll be stuck behind a suspect offensive line. First-round left tackle Jonah Williams is out for the season, leaving Cordy Glenn to protect Dalton's blind side. The other four O-line spots feature veteran journeymen and unproven youngsters. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's defense fields a handful of core players, but there are holes at linebacker and defensive tackle next to Geno Atkins.
With a new head coach, mediocre quarterback play, injuries, and poor blocking, the Bengals are set for another season at the bottom of the AFC North. The Cleveland Browns could be ready to claim their first-ever division title, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens both possess solid rosters. There's simply too much competition.
6. New York Jets, AFC East
2018 record: 4-12
Notable moves: Hired HC Adam Gase; signed RB Le'Veon Bell; signed LB C.J. Mosley; signed WR Jamison Crowder; traded for G Kelechi Osemele; drafted DT Quinnen Williams; signed C Ryan Kalil; re-signed DT Henry Anderson
It's safe to say the J-E-T-S went through an eventful offseason. Adam Gase was hired as the team's head coach, Gregg Williams was named defensive coordinator, and general manager Mike Maccagnan was fired shortly after the draft. Maccagnan was replaced at first by Gase on an interim basis, and later by ex-Eagles executive Joe Douglas.
The roster has a new look as well after the additions of prized free agents Bell and Mosley. With a bolstered offensive line, new weapons for second-year quarterback Sam Darnold, and upgrades on defense next to core players Jamal Adams and Leonard Williams, New York certainly improved on both sides of the ball.
In truth, the Jets are one of the betters squads on this list, especially if Darnold takes the next step as a sophomore. The problem? Those pesky New England Patriots. Amazingly, New England has captured the AFC East title in each of the past 10 years and in 15 of the last 16. Though Bill Belichick and Tom Brady won't be there forever - and though the Jets are perhaps in the best position to usurp them - we're not betting on a transition of power in 2019.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFC South
2018 record: 5-11
Notable moves: Hired HC Bruce Arians; signed DT Ndamukong Suh; drafted LB Devin White; signed LB Shaq Barrett; signed LB Deone Bucannon; signed WR Breshad Perriman; signed S Darian Stewart
The Buccaneers' roster and coaching staff underwent a ton of changes, but Jameis Winston - who had a roller-coaster 2018 - remains the quarterback and will have the largest impact on the team's success. Arians should get the most out of the former No. 1 overall pick, but Winston will need to overcome a subpar rushing attack and one of the league's worst O-lines. Those blockers are the biggest obstacle and continued to look shaky in the preseason, which included allowing seven sacks to the Browns in Week 3.
There are changes on defense, too. Todd Bowles has taken over a unit that ranked 27th a year ago and last in 2017. The new 3-4 scheme features young talent at inside linebacker and cornerback, but Tampa Bay will struggle to rush the passer, especially with Jason Pierre-Paul's season in jeopardy.
The Bucs could shock the league if Arians' offense clicks early and Winston improves, but an NFC South title is probably unrealistic. The division is among the most competitive in the NFL, with the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers all set to compete for postseason berths. There are simply too many weaknesses on Tampa Bay's roster to unseat three legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
4. Oakland Raiders, AFC West
2018 record: 4-12
Notable moves: Traded for WR Antonio Brown; signed OT Trent Brown; signed S Lamarcus Joyner; signed WR Tyrell Williams; signed LB Vontaze Burfict; signed LB Brandon Marshall; drafted DE Clelin Ferrell; drafted RB Josh Jacobs; drafted S Johnathan Abram
After a wild offseason, the Raiders certainly have a different look. Under John Gruden and new general manager Mike Mayock, many of the changes came on offense in hopes of aiding quarterback Derek Carr, who's regressed since finishing third in MVP voting following the 2016 season. Jacobs will upgrade a rushing attack that ranked 25th a year ago, while Brown - if healthy and committed - and Williams will be a pair of talented targets. If Carr can improve his decision-making, Oakland's offense could be potent.
Things are less clear on the defensive side. Gruden will rely on seven new starters, headlined by two first-round rookies. The Raiders aren't particularly stout in coverage at cornerback or linebacker, so a young front four must step up and create consistent pressure.
The AFC West is home to two elite squads, but there are opportunities for Oakland to make a leap in the standings. The Denver Broncos likely won't field a dynamic offense with Joe Flacco under center, while the Los Angeles Chargers currently have a running back holding out, injuries on defense, and a sidelined left tackle. The Kansas City Chiefs present a very difficult challenge, but crazier things have happened.
3. Arizona Cardinals, NFC West
2018 record: 3-13
Notable moves: Hired HC Kliff Kingsbury; drafted QB Kyler Murray; re-signed WR Larry Fitzgerald; traded for OT Marcus Gilbert; signed LB Terrell Suggs; signed LB Jordan Hicks; signed CB Robert Alford; signed G J.R. Sweezy; signed CB Tramaine Brock
Year 1 of the Kliff and Kyler show brings a number of questions, but the Cardinals should at least feature a significantly improved scoring unit in 2019. Murray hasn't looked sharp during preseason action, but the No. 1 overall pick possesses the natural accuracy, playmaking ability, and supporting cast to take the league by storm. Unfortunately, Arizona's offensive line is still a glaring weakness and could hold Kingsbury's offense back despite the addition of two new starters.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals brought in Vance Joseph to lead their defense after allowing 26.6 points per game (26th in the NFL) last year. There's also talent aplenty at safety, linebacker, and pass-rusher, but cornerback depth will cause fits early and often. Patrick Peterson is suspended for the first six games while Alford is set to miss the first half of the season. Brock and second-round rookie Byron Murphy are the presumed starters, which isn't ideal in a division that features Russell Wilson and a potent Rams offense.
As one of the great unknowns entering 2019, Arizona could either rocket up the standings or fall flat yet again. The San Francisco 49ers have their fair share of red flags, the Seattle Seahawks lack offensive weapons, and Los Angeles will field an aging roster that could suffer from a Super Bowl hangover. NFC West supremacy isn't as far-fetched as it sounds, but the Cardinals' chances will rest on their 5-foot-10 rookie passer.
2. Detroit Lions, NFC North
2018 record: 6-10
Notable moves: Signed DE Trey Flowers; drafted TE T.J. Hockenson; signed DT Mike Daniels; signed CB Justin Coleman; signed CB Rashaan Melvin; signed TE Jesse James; signed RB C.J. Anderson; signed WR Danny Amendola
The NFC is crowded with contenders, but the Lions are rarely mentioned among them. However, if new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell helps Matthew Stafford rebound from a rough campaign - which saw him gain just 6.8 yards per pass attempt - that could change quickly.
Receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are entrenched as Stafford's top two targets, while additions Hockenson and Amendola will provide him with security blankets underneath. Additionally, Johnson is set to take a big leap in Year 2 of leading Detroit's backfield.
While it's difficult to overlook weaknesses at linebacker, Matt Patricia's defense appears much improved from a season ago and is the clear strength of the roster. The additions of Flowers and Daniels to a unit featuring Damon Harrison, A'Shawn Robinson, and Da'Shawn Hand will give Detroit a top-tier defensive line. The Lions should also be effective in pass coverage with Coleman, Darius Slay, and Quandre Diggs in the fold.
Detroit has the talent and the favorable schedule to go from worst to first in 2019. The division is competitive overall, but every other squad has its share of issues. Can Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur coexist in Green Bay? How will the Chicago Bears' defense look minus coordinator Vic Fangio? Will Kirk Cousins continue to falter in big games? The NFC North is up for grabs.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars, AFC South
2018 record: 5-11
Notable moves: Signed QB Nick Foles; drafted DE Josh Allen; signed WR Chris Conley; signed LB Jake Ryan; re-signed G A.J. Cann
Following Andrew Luck's shocking retirement and Jadeveon Clowney's trade, the Jaguars are in prime position to jump from worst to first in the AFC South.
It starts on defense. Despite linebacker Telvin Smith's decision to temporarily step away from football, Jacksonville will once again field a fearsome unit. The addition of Allen solidified an already-lethal pass rush, while Jalen Ramsey figures to return to All-Pro form as he searches for a new contract in 2020. The Jaguars' defense didn't appear as strong last season as it was in 2017, but Doug Marrone's unit still allowed the fifth-least yards per game.
Helping the franchise's chance at a division crown in 2019 is an upgrade at the game's most important position. Nick Foles wasn't the league's flashiest free-agent addition, but the former Super Bowl MVP will add poise and quick decision-making to the offense.
With an ascending receiving core and a rebounding Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville's scoring unit may be good enough to at least support its strong defense. Blake Bortles led the team to an AFC Championship Game appearance, so imagine what the Jaguars can accomplish with a similar defense and Foles under center.