NFL Thanksgiving Day lines that make you go hmmm...
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Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 12.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)
This game actually opened up at Detroit -1 at some offshore sportsbooks. That was quickly corrected by the betting public to where the Vikings are now 3-point favorites. I made Minnesota a 1.5-point favorite with the understanding that public perception says Minnesota should be favored, but by the end of the week, the home dog will certainly be attracting money.
Minnesota seems almost flawless after a dominating performance in Week 11. This team has been playing very well throughout the season and is currently riding a six-game win streak. The key for the Vikings has been their defense - no doubt – and adding to that, there should be some hype in the Vikings locker room regarding the revenge factor and avenging one of just two losses to date.
Detroit has been winning as well and played a tough defensive-minded Chicago team this past week and still racked up 27 points. My gut tells me the Lions will be hungry for the upset and being the home dog may supersede Minnesota’s revenge factor. The last four Thanksgivings have been beneficial to the Lions, winning four straight, and I suspect that money will follow them as we get closer to kickoff.
I think the value is in taking the Lions with as many points as you can. Don’t be surprised if they are the aggressors in this one.
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 48)
This one landed on Dallas as a 3.5- point favorite for a split second and has since seen an avalanche of early money on the Chargers, moving this to a pick’em as of this writing. I personally made this Dallas -3 so I agree with the offshores on this one. This one-sided betting is largely due to the public’s short memory and recall. They obviously remember L.A.’s big win over Buffalo and couple opinion that with Philadelphia cluster bombing of the Cowboys Sunday night.
I’m not impressed with Los Angeles’ road results. The two wins were against now recognized bad teams in Oakland and the N.Y. Giants. And although they did rack up some noteworthy points against Buffalo, we all know that was against a first-time starter who threw five interceptions.
The Cowboys had won three in a row against teams on par with the Chargers before they lost twice in the past two weeks to top-tier teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia. This is a must-win game for Dallas, which needs a big victory on national TV to get in position for a playoff run with six weeks to go. I think the emotions will be with Dallas and with the spread at a pick, there’s good value on the home team.
I see this heading back up on Dallas, so grab the low number while you can early in the week.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44)
After watching Washington play some impressive football at New Orleans, only to fold in the fourth quarter, it made me recheck the Redskins’ poor record. What I found was a reasonable explanation: they have played a brutal schedule where losses have come to the hands of Philadelphia twice, a good early Kansas City team, Dallas, Minnesota and New Orleans. The last two losses were very competitive.
After analyzing that information, I made this Washington -9. What helps the value here is the Giants’ win over a nose-diving Chiefs team this past weekend. I think a loss there would have seen the opening spread closer to my own number. The Giants are going nowhere and can’t be expected to be emotionally in this game. It’s basically do-or-die for the Hogs, who can ill afford another loss if they expect to stay in the playoff hunt.
The Giants broke through for their second win of the season and it’s improbable that they can win two games in a row let alone that it will be on the road. Seven points is a tough number to overcome, but a glance at the New York offense suggests they can’t muster too many points.
Their recent past has seen a downward trend of offense the past four weeks. They’ve lost three of their past four games and their offense is averaging less than 14 points per contest. The way Washington’s offense has played the past two weeks against respectable teams (scoring 30 and 31 points), I just don’t see where the Giants can keep pace.
Though it’s a big number, the value at this level is on Washington.
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Peter Korner is a long-time Las Vegas oddsmaker and analyst, working at the Las Vegas Sports Consultants and operating his own odds service, The Sports Club. Find out more about Pete and his storied career in the sports betting industry here.