NFL underdogs: Week 3 point spread picks and predictions
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The NFL has often been dubbed a circus. But if it were a real Big Top Show, the Carolina Panthers would be one of those crazy-ass flying trapeze teams that perform without a safety net.
Actually, the Panthers, who are as big as 6.5-point favorites at home to New Orleans in Week 3, would perform without a net while wearing blindfolds and after eating a tub of popcorn – extra butter.
That’s kind of what Carolina is doing now, with tight end and offensive failsafe Greg Olsen out at least eight weeks with a broken foot. Olsen, who has led the team in receptions in each of the previous three seasons, is Cam Newton’s safety blanket – also known as a “bae bae” in my house. When plays broke down, Olsen didn’t. Whether he was the original look or the check down, when shit hit the Cam – excuse me, fan – Olsen was No. 1 for No. 1.
The Panthers have been spoiled in a way, actually possessing two viable options when things were FUBAR. Newton himself is one of the greatest scrambling QBs of all time, with the speed of a running back and the size of a defensive end, Newton could turn the worst-called play into a thing of beauty – like Extreme Makeover: NFL Edition.
But alas, that option (which is the option) is waning as well. Newton, who entered the year with a surgically-repaired shoulder, has been used sparingly as a running threat through two games. And after getting sacked six times and hurting his ankle in last Sunday’s 9-3 win over Buffalo, Carolina will be very coy when it comes to exposing Cam to contact.
So, what will the Panthers do when things don’t go according to plan against the Saints Sunday? Well, they’ll just have to rely on that top-ranked defense, I guess. The same defense that has faced the likes of Brian Hoyer and a post-concussion Tyrod Taylor in the first two games of the season. The same D that’s first two foes sit in the cellar of NFL offenses. I’m not putting too much faith in those defensive numbers.
New Orleans has had a bumpy start to the season, playing a tough Vikings defense on the road and then a pissed-off Patriots team at home. The Saints are 4-0 ATS when getting six or more points against a NFC South rival the past two seasons and somehow people still love to bet against New Orleans on the road, despite it going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 away games.
The Panthers are performing without a net (or two) and I’m taking the six points, waiting for the “SPLAT!” come Sunday.
Pick: Saints +6.5
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42.5)
If you don’t know by now, the Seattle Seahawks care about the start of the NFL season as much as your mother in-law (“Why can’t we plan it for Sunday? Football?! It’s not like he’s playing in the damn games…”).
Seattle has been slow out of the blocks in each of the past three years, going 1-1 SU and ATS in 2014, 0-2 SU and ATS in 2015 (with Kam Chancellor holding out), and 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS last year. Combine their 1-1 SU mark and 0-2 ATS count so far in 2017, and the mighty Seahawks are just 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in the opening two weeks of football since 2014.
Seattle has been outscored 152-141 in those contests, for an average losing score of 19-17.6. That’s absolutely fine by me if I’m getting three points from oddsmakers at Tennessee Sunday. But I expect more than just a close cover from Pete Carroll’s crew in Week 3.
The third game of the schedule has been golden for Seattle, with the team going a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in Week 3 the past three years (winning those games by an average score of 29.7-12.7), and 16-5 ATS in Week 3 the previous 21 seasons.
All the headlines read the same about the Seahawks offense as we head into Week 3 as they did the prior three years, so I’m expecting another turnaround versus the Titans.
Pick: Seahawks +3
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 40.5)
For a NFL column that is solely limited to picking underdogs each and every week, getting a chance to go against the Browns is like the solar eclipse of football betting.
Sure, Cleveland has shown some improvements in the early workings of the 2017 campaign but, c’mon, it couldn’t get much worse than that 2016 crap fest. The Browns got smacked by Baltimore in Week 2, have scored just 28 points through two games, and haven’t been in the role of favorite since Week 12 of the 2010 season.
Indianapolis put up a good fight against Arizona last Sunday and has now had quarterback Jacoby Brissett in the offense for three weeks. I like this guy. He’s been raised in the Patriots’ program, played well in place of Brady/Garappolo last year, can keep plays alive with his feet, and started developing chemistry with the Colts’ top targets versus the Cardinals.
That blowout loss to the Rams in Week 1 is still skewing Indianapolis’ odds and has delivered the talking rainbow unicorn of NFL underdog betting in Week 3.
Pick: Colts +1
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 2-4 ATS