NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3
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Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5, 48)
Saints third-down D problems vs. Panthers' drive extension skills
The Panthers have been the toughest team to score against through two games - but that hot defensive start will be put to the test this weekend as they host a Saints team that is winless so far, but can still put points on the board. Yet, while the main focus will be on whether Drew Brees can generate enough offense to offset the Saints' struggling defense, the Panthers will look to exploit what could be a major advantage: third-down production.
Not much has gone right for the New Orleans defense so far, as it has allowed a whopping 65 points in losses to the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots. You could probably identify several problem areas here, but one of the most significant is the Saints' inability to force teams into fourth-down situations, allowing foes to convert on third down 57.7 percent of the time - the worst rate in football. New England ranked 27th in the category last season, so this trend isn't a new one.
What is new, however, is Carolina's ability to extend drives. Cam Newton and the Panthers' offense was an efficient 7-of-13 in third-down situations in a season-opening win over the San Francisco 49ers, and despite doing little with the football in a 9-3 triumph over Buffalo in Week 2, Carolina was still a solid 7-of-16 on third down. While this might not last - the Panthers converted just 37.2 percent on third downs last season - it should at least continue through this week against a leaky Saints D.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (+7.5, 45.5)
Steelers' rushing troubles vs. Bears' stout run D
The Steelers are off to a 2-0 start and are heavily favored to remain unbeaten after this weekend as they visit a Bears team that has been outscored 52-24 in consecutive losses to open the season. Yet, while Pittsburgh has considerable advantages in several key areas, there is a chance the Bears could make things a little more even - though this mismatch Chicago enjoys might be more of a two-week aberration than a potential season-long trend.
After struggling to run the football in a narrow Week 1 triumph over the Cleveland Browns, it was thought that Steelers star running back Le'Veon Bell was simply working his way back into game shape. But Pittsburgh didn't fare much better in Week 2 versus the Minnesota Vikings, as Bell needed 27 carries to record 87 yards on the ground. The Steelers average an NFL-worst 2.8 yards per carry, and with the Pittsburgh offense far less prolific on the road than at home, there's reason for concern this week.
Chicago has had it rough, with quarterback Mike Glennon looking abysmal and the receiving corps absolutely decimated by injury. But the Bears' defense has actually been better than the point differential might suggest - particularly on the ground. Chicago is allowing a scant 3.2 YPC, tied for the ninth-lowest rate in the league. The Bears can't hope to keep Bell completely contained, but minimizing his impact could give the home side a chance at victory.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 43.5)
Giants' secondary struggles vs. Eagles' pass-heavy approach
Fans who like to see footballs flying through the air should be in for a real treat Sunday as the Giants and Eagles renew hostilities in an NFC East showdown. The Giants are off to an 0-2 start and have scored a paltry 13 points in the process, while the Eagles have split a pair of games to open the campaign and haven't been shy about airing it out. That should work in their favor this weekend, with New York's secondary struggling to make an impact.
Much was made about the Giants' attempts to fix their defense in the offseason, but the results through two games have been rough. New York comes into Week 3 action as one of nine teams without an interception, and its four sacks rank in the lower half league-wide. In a two-week stretch that has seen passing yards way down across the NFL, the Giants have allowed opposing QBs to post a 100.0 combined passer rating - good for 26th overall.
QB Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia pass attack has already seen dramatic improvement over last season - boasting a QB rating 10 points higher than their 2016 figure so far - and haven't been shy about challenging opposing secondaries. Philadelphia has thrown the ball on 69.4 percent of its total offensive plays, the fourth-highest rate in the league and a 10-percent bump over last season. With the Giants sitting first at 72.2 percent, the ball will be flying - and that benefits the Eagles.
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9, 44.5)
Bengals' bad TOP numbers vs. Packers' elite clock control
The Bengals are off to such a terrible offensive start, they've already replaced their offensive coordinator. Whether that will be enough to stem the tide is the only question in Cincinnati fans' minds as the 0-2 Bengals travel to Lambeau Field for a date with the 1-1 Packers. For Cincinnati to improve on the nine points it has scored through two games, it will need to do a batter job controlling the clock - something Green Bay has done tremendously well so far.
A lot of factors go into time of possession, so there are plenty of reasons why the Bengals rank 27th in the category at 26:52 per game. Cincinnati has converted just eight of its 27 third-down opportunities into first downs, so far, while its 13 first downs per game rank ahead of only San Francisco. The Bengals have also generated just 4.3 yards per play, good for 29th overall. Simply put, QB Andy Dalton hasn't been able to do much of anything - and that means less time with the football.
The Packers, on the other hand, have done an exquisite job of controlling the clock. After holding the ball for more than 39 minutes of a season-opening 17-9 win over Seattle, QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense had the ball for 31:23 but ultimately dropped a 34-23 decision to the quick-striking Falcons. With Jordy Nelson questionable (and expected to be limited if he does play), Rodgers will have to rely even more on short passes and a vaunted run game - and that's bad news for the Bengals.