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3 reasons why the Lions are primed for regression in 2017

Kirby Lee / USA TODAY Sports

To the surprise of many, the Detroit Lions emerged as one of the NFL's most entertaining teams last year, with seemingly every contest coming down to the wire.

Matthew Stafford was in the MVP race until a disastrous stretch during the final four games took him out of the running, while a number of unheralded contributors played large roles for the Lions, who snuck into the playoffs at 9-7.

Unfortunately for Lions fans, the club is a prime candidate to regress in 2017. Here are three reasons why:

The cardiac kids are downright unsustainable

Although the Lions were wildly entertaining last year, there wasn't a method to their madness. Detroit set an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comeback victories, pushing its success to the theoretical limit. Many were quick to label Stafford "clutch" for the Lions' propensity to pull out wins at the last possible second, fueling his case for MVP consideration. While it's not entirely incorrect, it's far more accurate to deduce that the Lions were one of the biggest beneficiaries of sheer luck in recent memory.

If the Lions can string together a series of wins in dramatic fashion, it'll translate to another endlessly fascinating product to watch. It's far more likely that the Lions split their share of close games next year and descend back toward the league average, instead of a playoff berth.

A stagnant pass rush

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

Detroit recorded a paltry 26 sacks last season, tied for 30th in the NFL. The Lions didn't place a single pass-rusher within the NFL's top 20 sack leaders, as Kerry Hyder led the team with eight. Next year's outlook doesn't appear to be much brighter.

Ezekiel Ansah completely disappeared last season, recording 2.5 sacks after racking up 14.5 in 2015. Although the 28-year-old battled through an ankle injury for most of the year, it was a jarring decline in production and the Lions will have to determine whether Ansah is the genuine article after earning second-team All-Pro honors in 2015. If he fails to rebound from his down year, the Lions' pass rush could remain at the bottom of the league.

The Lions drafted linebacker Jarrad Davis in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft but he's likely going to patrol the middle of the field instead of featuring as an edge rushing linebacker. Davis' speed and instincts should allow him to fit in seamlessly, but every rookie faces an adjustment period and the Lions did little else to address their pass-rushing woes. It could be a long season for the defense if the Lions' front seven fails to generate pressure once again.

Stafford's downward trajectory in final quarter

Stafford played arguably the best football of his career during the first three quarters of the 2016 season and had begun to change the narrative surrounding his career - namely, that he was turning into an elite quarterback after eight seasons stuck in the NFL's median. It didn't hold up, as Stafford regressed to the mean, submitting a horrific final stretch. Although Stafford suffered a hand injury in December, he didn't miss a game and failed to remain among the NFL's best quarterbacks.

During the Lions' last four regular season games, Stafford completed 60.2 percent of his passes for three touchdowns against five interceptions. The Lions lost their final three games, before being bounced unceremoniously in a 26-6 playoff loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

Is there anything predictive from Stafford's campaign? There's reason to believe that his poor end to the year won't play out over a 16-game stretch, but it's also possible he won't replicate one of the best starts of his career. It's on Stafford to elevate the Lions once again and earn the second Pro Bowl nomination of his career.

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